Gaza ceasefire may hold but is still flawed, says Egypt’s ex-foreign minister

The power balance is unequal, Nabil Fahmy tells Raisina Middle East conference

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A ceasefire in Gaza after 15 months of devastating war between Israel and Hamas was imperative, Nabil Fahmy, a former Egyptian foreign minister, told The National on Tuesday.

The fragile truce between Israel and Hamas was brokered earlier this month, by which time Israel's military offensive against Hamas had killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians, though the Gaza death toll has since exceeded 47,350. Israel launched its assault after the raids by Hamas on October 7, 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage.

“It was a necessary deal for both the Israelis and Palestinians,” said Mr Fahmy, who spoke to The National at the Raisina Middle East conference in Abu Dhabi. "I think the deal will hold but I don’t think it will be implemented fairly, efficiently and completely.”

The complex, multiphase ceasefire, facilitated by the US, Egypt and Qatar, has allowed for the exchange of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, the delivery of desperately needed humanitarian aid to Gaza and the return home of Gazans displaced from the north. Despite the pause in violence, the situation remains precarious, with each side accusing the other of violations of the ceasefire terms.

“The power balance on the ground is unequal,” said Mr Fahmy. “Negotiations always lean towards the stronger and I do not see the current Israeli government recognising Palestinian rights, let alone supporting a two-state solution.”

The return of Donald Trump as US President is also seen as a factor favouring Israel. After his inauguration last week, Mr Trump rescinded sanctions imposed by the previous Biden administration on far-right Israeli settler groups and individuals accused of violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. He also called for Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza.

“Jordan and Egypt have always supported a Palestinian state,” said Mr Fahmy. “This means they will not be implicitly involved in any process that seeks to ‘de-Palestinise’ Palestinian territories.”

Mr Trump's call reflected long-standing Israeli government positions, the former foreign minister added. “The notion that this displacement is temporary and that Palestinians will return is naive and unrealistic.”