Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
The future of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas was thrown into question on Wednesday after a day of political chaos in Israel that threatened to derail months of international diplomacy to release hostages and end the war in Gaza.
Optimism that an end to the war was close surged on Wednesday after Israel and Hamas agreed to the deal, in news that was welcomed internationally as a key moment in closing one of the most dangerous chapters in the recent history of the Middle East, which has stood on the brink of regional war for 15 months.
Israel’s security cabinet was reportedly scheduled to meet at 11am on Thursday to agree on implementing the deal, for which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was widely thought to have gained the political backing. Instead, the morning began with a worrying series of domestic political developments inside Israel that steadily raised fears that the agreement was hanging by a thread.
Mr Netanyahu’s office first accused Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis” to prevent the deal. The statement then said that the claimed stumbling block meant “Israel will not set a date for a cabinet and government meeting until the mediators announce that Hamas has approved all the details of the agreement”. Hamas political bureau member Sami Abu Zuhri, meanwhile, said there was "no basis" for Israel's accusations.
A crucial far-right faction in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition, political party Religious Zionism, then said it would leave the government if Israel did not return to full-fledged war in Gaza after the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire concluded.
“Alongside the longing for the return of all our abductees, the Religious Zionist faction strongly opposes the deal,” a statement from the party said, adding that a return to war was “a condition for the party to remain in the government and coalition”. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also threatened to quit.
That means two of the 11 Security cabinet members have publicly come out against the deal. If passed by the highest-level body, the larger, 34-member cabinet will vote on the ceasefire.
Despite the drama, departing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that he had no reason to doubt the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal would take effect on Sunday.
“I am confident and very fully expect that the implementation will begin as we said on Sunday,” Mr Blinken said in his final media briefing at the State Department. “I’ve been on the phone one way or another all morning with [special envoy] Brett McGurk with our Qatari friends, and I’m very confident that this is moving forward, and we’ll see the start of the implementation of the event on Sunday.”
Mr Netanyahu's coalition controls the Knesset, Israel's parliament, with a 64-seat majority. His party, Likud, has 32 seats in the 120-member house, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism holds seven and Mr Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power holds six.
Israeli pollster and commentator Dahlia Scheindlin told The National that she believes Religious Zionism’s threat should be taken seriously because leader Mr Smotrich “hopes Netanyahu will cave because he is showing extremely erratic behaviour and clearly able to be pressured”.
Ms Scheindlin said she thinks “[Netanyahu’s] erratic behaviour and very weird messages are an 'episode’ he’s having. He’s had these in the past, where he becomes paralysed and self-contradictory”.
“It seems to me that he is simply unable to shake his political calculations, which have generally been more important than anything regarding ending the war or getting the hostages back.”
An Israeli source told The National on Thursday evening that the cabinet meeting had been moved to Friday, but it was not immediately clear whether difficulties in the cabinet had been resolved.
The current deal is set to unfold in three stages. The first would see the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons. Israel’s military would also withdraw to agreed areas away from urban centres in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian supplies in the strip would significantly increase. Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement would begin by the 16th day of the first phase.
While polling shows that a significant majority of Israelis want the country to give top priority to releasing hostages in Gaza, there has been vocal opposition to a deal from the far-right, many of whom believe exchanging hostages for Palestinian detainees endangers national security, a charge led by Mr Ben-Gvir, who has called on political allies to leave the government if the deal is passed.
Israel waited on tenterhooks for reports that a new cabinet meeting to approve a deal had been set, amid Religious Zionism’s threats. An Israeli official told The National late on Thursday afternoon that Mr Netanyahu was yet to respond to Religious Zionism’s demand.
Any delay brings the fragile diplomatic process dangerously close to Sunday, the day it is scheduled to take effect, subject to the approval of the Israeli cabinet.
Israel launched its campaign in Gaza after Hamas-led gunmen burst into Israeli border-area communities on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and abducting more than 240 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
If successful, the ceasefire would halt fighting that has razed much of heavily urbanised Gaza, killed more than 46,700 people, and displaced most of the tiny enclave's pre-war population of 2.3 million, according to Gaza authorities.
Willy Lowry contributed to this report from Washington
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
