Lebanon edged closer to electing a new president on Wednesday night, more than two years after Michel Aoun left the presidential palace in Baabda – but hurdles remain ahead of the vote on Thursday morning.
MPs from the deeply divided parliament were moving closer to electing army commander Gen Joseph Aoun as the 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel approaches its end in January. High-level officials from the major political parties in Lebanon indicated to The National that the momentum appears to be with Gen Aoun – while cautioning that a lot could change in the hours before the vote at 11am local time on Thursday.
Divisions remain between significant blocs: the "opposition" led by the Lebanese Forces, the largest party in parliament and a strident opponent of Hezbollah, and Hezbollah and its Shiite ally the Amal Movement – led by the powerful parliament speaker Nabih Berri. Hezbollah and Amal had backed Suleiman Frangieh, a scion of an important political family from the north of Lebanon with close links to the former regime of Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
But on Wednesday, Mr Frangieh said he was withdrawing from the race and backing Gen Aoun. "He believes Gen Aoun has all the right specifications to be president," a senior aide of Mr Frangieh told The National, without giving any indication of a shift in Hezbollah and Amal's position.
The stance of the Free Patriotic Movement, the party formed by the previous president Michel Aoun, which at one point was an ally of Hezbollah, remains to be seen. The Druze Progressive Socialist Party, long seen as an important interlocutor in the divisive parliament, has already announced its support for Gen Aoun. The announcement from independent MP Neemat Frem that he would support Gen Aoun if a consensus was reached, is also important – effectively solidifying the opposition bloc's support for the army commander.
“We don’t have any issue with anyone that brings the best to Lebanon,” said a source from the Amal Movement when asked about Gen Aoun, without specifying how the party would proceed on Thursday. “We are looking for the best to come ... and put the country back on track."
Down to the wire
Lebanon risks losing vital reconstruction aid if parliament fails to elect a president on Thursday. The high-stakes, long-awaited session comes about two weeks before the expiry of the 60-day deadline for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon and ahead of US president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, adding urgency to an already critical political and security situation.
“The actions of parliamentary blocs tomorrow will send a strong signal to the international community, either positively or negatively,” a Western diplomatic source told The National on Wednesday. “Any obstruction will likely be perceived negatively, which could slow down reconstruction efforts and hinder the funding of critical reform programmes supported by the international community.”
Electing a president during the truce with Israel is a key component of the ceasefire agreement that ended the war with Hezbollah, according to three official sources in Beirut, who spoke to The National in November. Lebanon is seeking to fill a vacancy that has left the country without a head of state since October 2022.
The presidential vacuum has exacerbated the nation’s economic and political crises, drawing intense domestic and international scrutiny. In the days leading up to the parliamentary session, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity.
Sources told The National that the visit of the Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Mohammed bin Fahd Al Farhan, who arrived in Beirut on Wednesday, is seen as vital. The GCC countries have steered clear of Lebanon in recent years amid the perceived influence of Iran and Hezbollah on the country – but funds from the Gulf could be crucial in aiding reconstruction after Israel levelled large parts of Lebanon in its war on Hezbollah.
It is Prince Yazid's second visit in five days; he previously travelled to Beirut on Saturday after Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan cancelled a planned trip to the Lebanese capital. During his visit, Prince Yazid met key Lebanese figures, including Mr Berri and Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces. Discussions centred on the upcoming presidential elections, according to local reports.
Meanwhile, the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian has been holding meetings with Lebanese officials in Beirut, adding to the diplomatic efforts. “There is a glimmer of optimism amid a growing awareness of the urgency for MPs to elect a president,” said the Western diplomatic source. “While anything is still possible, we are gradually taking small steps towards addressing this vacancy.”
US envoy Amos Hochstein also landed in Beirut on Monday after spending the weekend in Riyadh where he met Prince Faisal. The two discussed regional issues, including developments in Lebanon.
High-level meetings between Lebanese officials and international envoys have underscored the need to elect a head of state. The US and Saudi Arabia have emphasised the importance of resolving the political deadlock, tying international financial assistance to Lebanon’s ability to implement key reforms under a stable presidency.
Parliament has failed to elect a president in the last 12 electoral sessions as it has been unable to reach a consensus on a candidate. A caretaker government has been running the country amid the vacuum.
On November 28, Mr Berri announced that a session to choose a leader would be held on January 9. The announcement came one day after a ceasefire brokered by the US and France, which sought to end more than a year of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army.
The fragile truce has brought a tenuous calm to Lebanon’s southern border. Both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of violating the terms of the agreement, leaving it hanging by a thread.
Leading candidates
Gen Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has emerged as the leading candidate for the presidency. His candidacy has received strong backing from key international players, including France, the US and Saudi Arabia.
In late December, Gen Aoun visited Saudi Arabia at the invitation of Chief of General Staff Fayyad Al Ruwaili. He met the Saudi Minister of Defence Prince Khalid bin Salman to discuss military and defence co-operation.
Last week, Gen Aoun also held discussions in Beirut with French officials, including Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu. The meeting revolved around enhancing military collaboration and ensuring continued French support for Lebanon’s military in the face of current economic and political pressures.
Other leading contenders in the race include Jihad Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister and current International Monetary Fund official, and Samir Assaf, a banker with extensive international experience. Mr Assaf maintains close ties with French President Emmanuel Macron. Independent Lebanese MP Mark Daou believes there is a strong possibility that Gen Aoun will be elected.
“The situation after the war is different, and there is significant momentum,” he told The National, warning that if swift action is not taken, the reconstruction plan will “be put on hold” and progress will stall. “The international community wants to see real intent and determination from Lebanon to save the country,” Mr Daou added.
“They need to know who they are dealing with and who will manage their financial support. A functioning state is essential to oversee reconstruction, strengthen the army and implement Resolution 1701. Hezbollah and Amal Movement are no longer in a position to block the election,” he said. Now, with Hezbollah weakened following its war with Israel and the fall of the Al Assad regime in Syria, Lebanon’s chances of choosing a president appear better.
Gen Aoun’s candidacy faces domestic challenges
Lebanon’s constitution stipulates that a candidate must secure a two thirds majority, or 86 votes, in the first round of parliamentary voting. If no candidate achieves this threshold, a simple majority of 65 votes suffices in subsequent rounds. Given Lebanon’s fractured political landscape, achieving even a simple majority poses a challenge.
A key obstacle to Gen Aoun’s candidacy lies in his status as a serving military officer. Article 49 of the Lebanese constitution prohibits public employees, including members of the armed forces, from running while in active service. To overcome this, Gen Aoun would need to secure a constitutional amendment. Mr Daou stressed the importance of securing votes from the Hezbollah bloc for Gen Aoun's election.
“It’s critical for him to secure at least 86 votes, which is required for a constitutional amendment,” he said. “This would dismiss any potential constitutional disputes, because if he is elected with fewer than 86 votes, his opponents could appeal to the Constitutional Council.”
The head of Hezbollah's Co-ordination and Liaison Unit, Wafiq Safa, said last week that his party would not “veto” Gen Aoun's nomination. “Our only veto is against Samir Geagea, because he represents a project of sedition and destruction in the country,” said Mr Safa in a televised speech on Sunday.
Mr Geagea is a fierce critic of Hezbollah and has the largest Christian bloc in parliament. “No other candidate will have the same chance that Joseph Aoun has from now until tomorrow morning. By nightfall, the opposition bloc, consisting of around 31 MPs, will officially declare their support for Joseph Aoun,” said a senior Lebanese Forces source.
Similarly, Najat Saliba, another independent MP, said: “If there is no consensus on Joseph Aoun, I don’t believe we will reach an agreement on anyone else. As of now, I would say most parties, including independent lawmakers, are rallying around Joseph Aoun, but negotiations are still ongoing internally and externally. After two and a half years, it’s time to move forward and build instead of continuing down this path of destruction.”
