Egypt is beefing up its military presence in Somalia to take part in a new African Union mission to fight the terrorist group Al Shabab, ferrying troops there by sea and air in what sources and analysts say is a significant step in Cairo's efforts to broaden its footprint in the strategic Horn of Africa region.
The move, they said, is also a milestone in Egypt's decade-long tussle with Somalia's neighbour Ethiopia over a large Nile dam that Addis Ababa is building and which Cairo views as an existential threat to its water security.
At Somalia's request, the Egyptian troops are replacing the Ethiopian contingent in an AU mission that is being replaced, giving Cairo a significant military presence across the border from Ethiopia that could potentially pressure Addis Ababa to show flexibility over the water dispute.
Egypt and Somalia signed a military co-operation agreement this year. Under that accord, Egypt deployed several thousand troops who are serving as military advisers to Somalia's security forces and providing security for the country's top leaders, their families and key state facilities.
The new AU mission was agreed by the UN Security Council on Friday in a resolution adopted by 14 of its 15 member states. The United States abstained due to reservations about funding.
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Somalia confirmed Egypt's role in the mission during talks in Cairo last week, according to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.
“The participation of Egypt is a reflection of its genuine interest in African issues and its desire to maintain a positive presence in the continent's trouble spots,” said Amany Al Taweel, an Egyptian expert on African affairs.
“We succeeded in this extremely important step at a time when everyone else is rushing to gain a foothold in Africa. That Ethiopia will not take part in the mission is another good aspect of the deployment because Addis Ababa has been a part of tensions in Somalia and because it failed to contain Al Shabab,” she said.
The new force – formally called the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom) – will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), whose mandate ended on Tuesday. Aussom is scheduled to be deployed in January.
Ethiopia, whose relations with Somalia have been tense, is a member of Atmis. Somalia wants it excluded from Aussom on the grounds that its contingent has not effectively reduced the threat posed by Al Shabab.
The exact size of Aussom and the Egyptian contingent are yet to be formally announced, although Somali officials say 11,000 men have already been pledged. The sources told The National that the Egyptian contingent would make up about a 25 per cent of Aussom.
It is not clear whether the Egyptian troops already in Somalia will be part of the new mission or will operate separately while those being sent by Cairo at present will alone serve in the AU mission.
The sources said last week's UN Security Council resolution was received with relief in Cairo, ending a period of concern that Turkey's announcement of a mediation bid between Somalia and Ethiopia in December would change Mogadishu's mind about replacing the Ethiopians with the Egyptians.
Tensions between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia flared nearly a year ago after Addis Ababa signed a maritime deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to gain access to the Red Sea.
Somalia and Egypt, both members of the Cairo-based Arab League, began forging closer relations in the wake of that deal, which Mogadishu saw as a breach of its sovereignty.
No concrete steps are known to have been taken to resolve the Somali-Ethiopian dispute since the Turkish mediation was announced, according to the sources.
“There is a silent rivalry between Egypt and Turkey in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere in Africa,” said one of the sources. “That rivalry is separate from the two nations' co-operation in other fields,” added the source, alluding to the recent thaw between Cairo and Ankara after a decade of tension.
The announcement of Turkey's mediation prompted Cairo to hold urgent consultations with the Mogadishu government, seeking clarifications on the agreement, said the sources. A visit by the Somali Foreign Minister to Cairo in December was part of these talks, they added.
In another example of the Cairo-Ankara rivalry in the region, Nato member Turkey has offered to mediate between Sudan's army and a rival paramilitary to end their 20-month-old war in the Afro-Arab nation.
Sudanese army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, who has enjoyed Cairo's support in his war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, said he welcomed Ankara's mediation.
Egypt and Turkey also back opposing sides in Libya, Egypt's western neighbour rocked by violence and divisions for more than a decade.
However, the Egyptian deployment in Somalia places Cairo at a clear advantage and bolsters its growing presence in the Horn of Africa, according to the sources.
"The Ethiopian troops must respect Somalia's wish or risk becoming an occupation force," said Salah Halimah, a former career diplomat from Egypt who is the new deputy chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, a Cairo-based think tank.
"Ethiopia must change its approach to its neighbours and improve ties to Somalia. That [the deployment of the new mission], in turn, could result in a change in its attitude towards Nile downstream nations Egypt and Sudan regarding their national water security," he said.
Egypt already has military bases in Horn of Africa nations Eritrea and Djibouti and has in recent years struck military co-operation accords with, besides Somalia, Nile basin states Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Its military presence in Somalia, which now enjoys international legitimacy following Friday's UN Security Council resolution, comes as foreign powers are vying to gain a foothold along Africa's Red Sea coast with tension flaring in the region, caused by Sudan's civil war, terrorism, tribal unrest in Ethiopia and the impact of climate change on economies there.
One of the world's driest nations, Egypt depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater needs. It has repeatedly stated that its share of the Nile water is a national security issue and that Ethiopia's dam constitutes an existential threat to its 107 million people.
More than a decade of negotiations with Ethiopia have failed to produce an agreement. Cairo wants a legally binding deal on running and filling the dam. Ethiopia contends that the dam does not pose a threat to the water security of Egypt and insists it is vital to its development.
“The River Nile, specifically, is an issue that's associated with the life and survival of Egyptians,” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi recently said. “It's the chief source of life in our nation. Egypt is the gift of the glorious river.”
