Newly trained Al Shabab fighters perform military drills in the Lafofe area, 18km south of Mogadishu, Somalia. AP
Newly trained Al Shabab fighters perform military drills in the Lafofe area, 18km south of Mogadishu, Somalia. AP
Newly trained Al Shabab fighters perform military drills in the Lafofe area, 18km south of Mogadishu, Somalia. AP
Newly trained Al Shabab fighters perform military drills in the Lafofe area, 18km south of Mogadishu, Somalia. AP

Egypt sending troops by air and sea for new African Union force in Somalia


Hamza Hendawi
  • English
  • Arabic

Egypt is beefing up its military presence in Somalia to take part in a new African Union mission to fight the terrorist group Al Shabab, ferrying troops there by sea and air in what sources and analysts say is a significant step in Cairo's efforts to broaden its footprint in the strategic Horn of Africa region.

The move, they said, is also a milestone in Egypt's decade-long tussle with Somalia's neighbour Ethiopia over a large Nile dam that Addis Ababa is building and which Cairo views as an existential threat to its water security.

At Somalia's request, the Egyptian troops are replacing the Ethiopian contingent in an AU mission that is being replaced, giving Cairo a significant military presence across the border from Ethiopia that could potentially pressure Addis Ababa to show flexibility over the water dispute.

Egypt and Somalia signed a military co-operation agreement this year. Under that accord, Egypt deployed several thousand troops who are serving as military advisers to Somalia's security forces and providing security for the country's top leaders, their families and key state facilities.

The new AU mission was agreed by the UN Security Council on Friday in a resolution adopted by 14 of its 15 member states. The United States abstained due to reservations about funding.

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Somalia confirmed Egypt's role in the mission during talks in Cairo last week, according to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

Cairo views a large Nile dam that Ethiopia is building as a threat to its water security. EPA
Cairo views a large Nile dam that Ethiopia is building as a threat to its water security. EPA

“The participation of Egypt is a reflection of its genuine interest in African issues and its desire to maintain a positive presence in the continent's trouble spots,” said Amany Al Taweel, an Egyptian expert on African affairs.

“We succeeded in this extremely important step at a time when everyone else is rushing to gain a foothold in Africa. That Ethiopia will not take part in the mission is another good aspect of the deployment because Addis Ababa has been a part of tensions in Somalia and because it failed to contain Al Shabab,” she said.

The new force – formally called the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom) – will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), whose mandate ended on Tuesday. Aussom is scheduled to be deployed in January.

Ethiopia, whose relations with Somalia have been tense, is a member of Atmis. Somalia wants it excluded from Aussom on the grounds that its contingent has not effectively reduced the threat posed by Al Shabab.

The exact size of Aussom and the Egyptian contingent are yet to be formally announced, although Somali officials say 11,000 men have already been pledged. The sources told The National that the Egyptian contingent would make up about a 25 per cent of Aussom.

It is not clear whether the Egyptian troops already in Somalia will be part of the new mission or will operate separately while those being sent by Cairo at present will alone serve in the AU mission.

The sources said last week's UN Security Council resolution was received with relief in Cairo, ending a period of concern that Turkey's announcement of a mediation bid between Somalia and Ethiopia in December would change Mogadishu's mind about replacing the Ethiopians with the Egyptians.

Tensions between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia flared nearly a year ago after Addis Ababa signed a maritime deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to gain access to the Red Sea.

Somalia and Egypt, both members of the Cairo-based Arab League, began forging closer relations in the wake of that deal, which Mogadishu saw as a breach of its sovereignty.

No concrete steps are known to have been taken to resolve the Somali-Ethiopian dispute since the Turkish mediation was announced, according to the sources.

“There is a silent rivalry between Egypt and Turkey in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere in Africa,” said one of the sources. “That rivalry is separate from the two nations' co-operation in other fields,” added the source, alluding to the recent thaw between Cairo and Ankara after a decade of tension.

The announcement of Turkey's mediation prompted Cairo to hold urgent consultations with the Mogadishu government, seeking clarifications on the agreement, said the sources. A visit by the Somali Foreign Minister to Cairo in December was part of these talks, they added.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on the sidelines of D-8 summit in Cairo on December 19. Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on the sidelines of D-8 summit in Cairo on December 19. Reuters

In another example of the Cairo-Ankara rivalry in the region, Nato member Turkey has offered to mediate between Sudan's army and a rival paramilitary to end their 20-month-old war in the Afro-Arab nation.

Sudanese army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, who has enjoyed Cairo's support in his war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, said he welcomed Ankara's mediation.

Egypt and Turkey also back opposing sides in Libya, Egypt's western neighbour rocked by violence and divisions for more than a decade.

However, the Egyptian deployment in Somalia places Cairo at a clear advantage and bolsters its growing presence in the Horn of Africa, according to the sources.

"The Ethiopian troops must respect Somalia's wish or risk becoming an occupation force," said Salah Halimah, a former career diplomat from Egypt who is the new deputy chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, a Cairo-based think tank.

"Ethiopia must change its approach to its neighbours and improve ties to Somalia. That [the deployment of the new mission], in turn, could result in a change in its attitude towards Nile downstream nations Egypt and Sudan regarding their national water security," he said.

Egypt already has military bases in Horn of Africa nations Eritrea and Djibouti and has in recent years struck military co-operation accords with, besides Somalia, Nile basin states Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Its military presence in Somalia, which now enjoys international legitimacy following Friday's UN Security Council resolution, comes as foreign powers are vying to gain a foothold along Africa's Red Sea coast with tension flaring in the region, caused by Sudan's civil war, terrorism, tribal unrest in Ethiopia and the impact of climate change on economies there.

One of the world's driest nations, Egypt depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater needs. It has repeatedly stated that its share of the Nile water is a national security issue and that Ethiopia's dam constitutes an existential threat to its 107 million people.

More than a decade of negotiations with Ethiopia have failed to produce an agreement. Cairo wants a legally binding deal on running and filling the dam. Ethiopia contends that the dam does not pose a threat to the water security of Egypt and insists it is vital to its development.

“The River Nile, specifically, is an issue that's associated with the life and survival of Egyptians,” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi recently said. “It's the chief source of life in our nation. Egypt is the gift of the glorious river.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Canada

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Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows

Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.

Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.

The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.

After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.

The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.

The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.

But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.

It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.

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Where: Various locations including National Theatre (Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Cultural Center, Zayed University Promenade, Beach Rotana (Abu Dhabi), Vox Cinemas at Yas Mall, Sharjah Youth Center

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