Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
Arab and US negotiators are racing against time amid demands from Israel and Hamas to secure a Gaza ceasefire before US president-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month, with the agreement now hinging mainly on the fate of Palestinian detainees, sources The National on Thursday.
Proposals being discussed provide for a 60-day truce during which a hostages-for-detainees deal is enacted and significant amounts of humanitarian assistance are allowed into Gaza. Also under consideration is the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes.
Reviving hopes for a deal is the flexibility demonstrated by both sides in recent weeks, with Hamas, significantly weakened after 14 months of war, dropping some of its key conditions for the release of Israeli hostages, including a full withdrawal by Israel and a permanent ceasefire.
"It's no longer just a question of negotiating closing the gaps between Hamas and Israel," said one of the sources. "Trump and his team have made it clear they want a deal before January 20. Their patience will eventually wear thin and command the parties, including Israel, to compromise and sign one."
Mr Trump has already vowed “there will be hell to pay” if the Israeli hostages are not released by his inauguration date. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also under pressure at home to strike a deal to free the hostages now that Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are weakened.
Qatari, Egyptian and US negotiations have already hinted at significant progress during the talks in recent days. Israel said it was close to signing a deal and Hamas affirmed on Tuesday that progress in talks in Doha was “serious and positive".
According to sources, Hamas has insisted any deal for the release of hostages it is holding must include freedom for senior Palestinians serving long prison sentences, such as Fatah and Hamas leaders Marwan Barghouti, Abdullah Barghouti and Ahmed Saadat, along with Ibrahim Hamed, a founding member of the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.
Israel has in the past made it clear it had no intention to release those four, as well as other Palestinian heavyweights from Fatah and Hamas.
Hamas has already agreed to an Israeli condition that the Palestinians it releases from prison must leave Palestinian territories and live in exile abroad with their families, according to the sources. Israel also wants to retain the right to refuse on security grounds to free any of the hundreds of Palestinian detainees Hamas wants freed and to screen displaced Palestinians returning to their homes in northern Gaza.
The Palestinian militant group has dropped its opposition to an Israeli demand that leaders from the group and their families accept safe passage out of Gaza, and a guarantee they would not be targeted wherever they choose to live. Turkey is the most likely destination for them, the sources said.
The sources explained that Hamas had compiled a list of the names of all hostages it is holding, including those who have died in captivity, and plan to hand it over to the mediators shortly. That, if it happens, meets a long-standing Israeli demand that Hamas had repeatedly rejected.
They stressed that Hamas also wanted the hostages to be handed to Red Cross representatives in Egypt after they crossed the Rafah crossing from Gaza. They said logistics might be behind the group's wish.
The militant group is requesting guarantees from Israel and the mediators – the US, Egypt and Qatar – that Israel will continue to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and a full withdrawal from Gaza after it releases all the hostages.
Hamas and allied groups in Gaza are believed to be holding about 100 captives. The Israeli military says they include about 40 who have died in captivity.
They are the remainder of 250 hostages kidnapped by fighters from Hamas and other groups when they attacked southern Israel in October last year, killing about 1,200. Hamas released about 100 of them in November last year during a week-long truce.
The October 2023 attacks drew a harsh Israeli military response that has killed more than 45,000 Palestinians and injured more than twice that number, Gaza's health authorities say. Israel's military operations in the densely populated enclave have reduced what were large built-up areas to rubble, displacing most of Gaza's 2.3 million residents.
Another gap between the two sides, the sources say, is Israel's reluctance to give unequivocal commitment to a full withdrawal from a narrow strip of land that runs the length of the Gaza-Egypt border on the Palestinian side. The strip includes the Salah Al Din, also known as the Philadelphi Corridor, and the Rafah crossing, Gaza's only route to the outside world that is not controlled by Israel.
Israel captured the area in May, drawing an angry response from Egypt, which closed its side of the Rafah crossing in protest. Egypt views Israel's action as a breach of the provisions of their 1979 peace treaty and subsequent accords.
Under the provisions of the proposals currently being discussed is a UN force to replace the Israelis in Salah Al Din and at the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing, the sources said.
Besides Israel's ambivalence on withdrawing from the corridor, Israel and Egypt are at odds over the number of troops Israel wants to keep in the area until it completes a gradual withdrawal.
During the proposed truce, negotiations would be held between all stakeholders on an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and how the coastal enclave would be run after the war, said the sources. Hamas, they added, wants guarantees that Israel would not resume military operations after all the hostages are released.
