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Rebels have begun consolidating their power over large parts of Syria after bringing down the regime of Bashar Al Assad, moving into coastal areas that were the bedrock of support for the former president while avoiding clashes with members of his Alawite minority and Russian troops in the area.
After Damascus fell on Sunday, ending a rule that was instrumental in the spread of Iranian and Russian influence in the Middle East, rebels advanced on the coastal cities of Jablah, Latakia and Tartous, near the only Russian military base on the Mediterranean, rebel sources said.
A former Syrian army officer working with the rebels said that Turkey has been acting as a liaison with Moscow, “assuring the Russians” that the advancing forces will stay away from both Russian troops and from Alawite neighbourhoods and villages that dot the Syrian coast.
“There has been some incidents of fire towards the Russians but nothing major,” the officer told The National.
The sudden downfall of President Bashar Al Assad to a group of lightly armed rebels has undermined a strategy by Iran and Russia to expand that has cost them billions of dollars but yielded no long-term return.
Moscow's intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 expanded a Russian zone of control in the country, along with zones for Iran, the US and Turkey, manned by armed proxies of each country. Iran has reportedly withdrawn most of its troops and auxiliaries from Syria.
Russian state news agency Tass reported that the “armed opposition has full control of the Latakia province”, where Russian military bases are located, and have entered the cities of Tartous but “had not penetrated Russia’s bases in Tartous and Hmeimim”. The two bases are Russia's largest warm-water military assets, expanded after Russia's intervention in the war.
Its foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said that Moscow was holding talks on the security of its citizens in Syria, Interfax news agency reported. Russia's military presence in Syria would be the subject of discussion with the new rulers in Damascus, the Kremlin said earlier on Monday.
Syria, which had a population of 20 million before the revolt, is majority Sunni. The resignation of Mr Al Assad ended six decades of domination by members of the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam. The country's current population and demographic make-up is unknown.
The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, an Al Qaeda offshoot with links to Turkey. Its leader, Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Muhammed Al Jawlani, has instructed the rebels to keep the civil department of the government under the supervision of Prime Minister Mohammad Jalali, who served under Mr Al Assad.
“This country can become a normal country,” said Mr Jalali in a video statement broadcast by Sky News Arabia.
Al Shara recently abandoned his nom de guerre to project an image of moderation, although his organisation was listed as a terrorist group by the US in 2014. He entered Damascus on Sunday, kneeling in prayer at the gates of the city and praying at the Umayyad Mosque, one of the holiest places in Islam in the heart of the capital.
Mr Al Assad's rule, “spread sectarianism and corruption in the country and left it a farm for Iranian ambitions”, he said at the mosque. In an apparent message to minority groups afraid of what many view as an incoming Sunni political ascendancy, he said that Syria now “belongs to all Syrians.”
The toppling of the regime is a victory for “the entire region,” he said, in an apparent message to Turkey and the Sunni Arab powers.
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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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