Syria failed state fears in West as rebel offensive grows

Worries grow over greater Iran influence and chemical weapons falling into extremist hands

A bullet-riddled portrait of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in Hama. Fears are growing that the Islamist offensive could result in a failed state in Syria. AFP

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Britain’s Middle East minister has said there must be “urgent de-escalation” in Syria as Islamist rebel forces continue to seize large areas of government territory, raising fears it could become a failed state.

With Lebanon on its knees and Gaza in ruins, there are worries over the impact another crippled state might have on the region.

A collapse would also impact on Italy’s plans to return refugees to Syria after it took the first step by reopening its consulate in Damascus in September following a decade of diplomatic estrangement.

That a group proscribed as terrorists by America and Britain could break the stalemate in Syria’s decade-long civil war and seize power is causing some consternation.

“We continue to call for urgent de-escalation in Syria, maintaining the protection of civilians and provision of humanitarian aid,” Hamish Falconer, the UK’s Middle East minister, said in a statement to The National.

There are also growing concerns that Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, that is leading the advance, could seize the government’s still considerable chemical weapons stockpile, along with its precision-guided delivery missiles.

Anti-government fighters in a Syrian army jet at an airbase near Hama. AFP

It is also reported that Israel’s security cabinet will hold two emergency meetings over the weekend to consider the possibility that the Syrian army might collapse.

“The key point is the unknown in all this,” said Richard Pater, director of the Bicom think tank based in Jerusalem. “If Assad falls, you're dealing with a seismic event in the region and the idea of another failed state.”

Already Israel has announced that it is reinforcing its military units in the occupied Golan Heights along its 76km border with Syria.

Damascus road

The current onslaught has seen the former Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamists seize Syria’s second city of Aleppo and are now bearing down on Homs, on the road to Damascus.

Their intent was signalled very clearly by Hayat Tahrir’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who declared that nothing less than toppling President Bashar Al Assad’s regime was their goal.

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime,” he told CNN. “It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal.”

Urgent support

With more than 48,000 refugees since the offensive began, Britain was donating a total of £2 million to the White Helmets in Syria who provide an ambulance service and remove unexploded bombs, Mr Falconer said.

“The UK remains concerned about the potential for further escalation in Syria and urges all parties to protect civilian lives and infrastructure to prevent further suffering,” the UK foreign office added in a statement.

Nerve agent fears

A growing concern for both western and regional governments is that Syria’s arsenal of nerve agents, estimated at 700 tonnes, as well as large amounts of Sarin and VX chemicals, could be seized by terrorists along with the missiles used to deliver them.

This appears to be why the Israeli air force in the past few days has undertaken several air strikes against Syrian ammunition bunkers to destroy the weapons.

“The idea of these weapons proliferating among unreliable dangerous, new enemies, with some of them sophisticated enough to know how to use them, is highly alarming,” said a western security official.

Another impact being examined closely is the large influx of Iranian militias that have entered the country since the offensive began at the end of last month.

Mr Pater pointed to the “heightened concern” that in order to repel the rebels, the Iranians will bring in “much bigger numbers of proxies and the Shiite militias”.

That could mean that Iran, and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) in particular, “entrenches even further within the Syrian theatre” with a stronger land conduit for Tehran to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

A growing issue for Mr Assad is that over the course of the civil war, in which he’s used chemical weapons against his own people, he is left with few friends in the region who would be willing to support him.