Iran is actively recruiting terror cells inside Israel in order to conduct retaliatory attacks at a time of its choosing, security officials have disclosed to The National.
Concerns that Tehran has been involved in recruiting Israelis, either Arab or Jewish, to conduct atrocities inside the country have been growing as the conflict intensifies.
Seven Israeli Jews originally from Azerbaijan were arrested in Haifa last month having allegedly assisted Iran in conducting 600 missions inside Israel.
Shin Bet, the country’s internal security service, has also made several other arrests of Israeli passport holders in recent weeks, The National has been told.
“There’s a realistic possibility that Israeli Arabs are being recruited,” an Israeli security source said. “But the speed of the recent arrests indicates that Shin Bet had a very good grip on this.”
There are also reports that Israel’s air strikes on Saturday could have knocked out Iran’s ability to produce missiles for up to a year, making it more likely that Tehran will intensify its war by a proxy campaign.
But Dr Jonathan Spyer, director of the Middle East Forum think tank in Jerusalem, said Iran is actively recruiting cells as a means of hitting Israel if another air strike is launched on the country.
“There are these rings of people working for Iran within Israel who were recruited directly by Iran and that suggests Tehran is trying very hard to develop a capacity within Israel which they can switch on and switch off at will,” Dr Spyer said.
Intelligence analysts at the leading geopolitical firm Sibylline believe that Iran could use its Israeli sources to conduct an assassination campaign “of high-profile individuals”.
“However, Iran's capacity to effectively execute these efforts remains limited, particularly given the Israeli security forces' comparatively superior capacity,” said Megan Sutcliffe, Sibylline’s Middle East expert.
Ms Sutcliffe added that Iran would also look to develop its “proxy activity” by developing new recruits in “nascent environments”.
Iran is also working hard to “empower various groups” in the occupied West Bank, said Dr Spyer.
He added that with up to 20 Israelis killed in the last week, some by Hezbollah and others in likely terror attacks including a lorry ramming on Sunday, it seems that Iran’s strategy “is by no means a failure, even if they haven't got air defences that can withstand Israeli air power”.
Missile programme delay
Iran’s terror plans could intensify after Saturday’s air strike led to the destruction of targets at its secret Parchin missile production complex.
It is understood that the Israeli air force struck at least 12 “planetary mixers” that make solid fuel for its long-range ballistic missiles.
Israeli and US officials told the Axios website that the strike had “crippled Iran’s missile production capability” as the mixers could not be made by Iran but had to be imported from China.
The Institute for the Study of War think tank reported that “Iran will likely need months or possible a year or more to acquire new mixing equipment”.
Ms Sutcliffe also suggested that the strikes could damage Iran economically as it might lose its sales of missiles to Russia.
The destruction could also mean that Iran will be unable to launch major missile attacks on Israel, similar to the one on October 1 that led to the weekend’s retaliatory strikes.
Gloves off with Trump
Another major impact on the region could come if Donald Trump is elected as America’s next president, with “all options open” including Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, said Dr Spyer.
“People will be watching very carefully as to who gets elected in a week's time, and the equation could change depending on who gets elected,” he added.
If Kamala Harris wins then the status quo will remain with America “absolutely not wanting to have a confrontation with Iran”.
A western security source agreed that the “gloves are very much on under Biden” but under Mr Trump there could rapidly be further Israeli action against Iran “to demonstrate intent”.
Senior Israeli government figures believe that keeping direct operations below a certain threshold plays into the regime’s hands.
“I very much doubt that Israel will now adopt a pattern of behaviour designed to avoid upsetting the Iranians,” said Dr Spyer. “Therefore if Trump is elected then all options will become open, or at least the option of very significant change will come on to the agenda.”
Ms Sutcliffe predicted that Mr Trump would be “more lenient” in pressuring Israel to moderate its direct strikes on Iran, including its nuclear sites. But he would be unlikely to commit US forces given his opposition to foreign campaigns.
“However, if Iran crossed clear red lines, for example conducting direct attacks on US military personnel in the region, then US participation would become more likely,” she added.
If as expected, Iran sends its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officers into Lebanon and they are assassinated by Israel, another spiral of retaliation is likely to commence, as Tehran will want to revert to its policy of “bleeding Israel slowly”, Dr Spyer said.
