US envoy in Beirut faces major hurdles in efforts to prevent war

Amos Hochstein's fifth visit comes amid high tension in the region

US special envoy Amos Hochstein meets Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut. Reuters

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US envoy Amos Hochstein is visiting Lebanon to renew a diplomatic push aimed at preventing a wider regional war and a large-scale retaliation against Israel by Iran and Hezbollah.

After a meeting with Lebanon's parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, Mr Hochstein said that they discussed “the framework agreement that's on the table for a Gaza ceasefire, and he and I agreed there is no more time to waste and there's no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay”.

“We continue to believe that a diplomatic resolution is achievable because we continue to believe that no one truly wants a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel,” Mr Hochstein said.

The US envoy also met caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who said in a statement that diplomacy was at a “critical point”.

According to diplomatic and political sources, the US and western efforts are met in Beirut with “frustration” from the powerful armed group, which has rejected incentives in return for limiting its response to the killing of its top commander.

“It is not a personal issue, but Hezbollah is generally frustrated, it now sees that the US is either ineffective or complicit in the Gaza war,” a diplomatic source told The National on Wednesday.

Tensions have risen since the assassinations of Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in the southern suburbs of Beirut two weeks ago, both blamed on Israel. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on Mr Haniyeh. Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah have promised severe retaliation, without giving details of its nature or timing, sparking fears of all-out war.

Western powers have concerted efforts with a flurry of diplomacy in the region to defuse tensions, with several senior Biden administration officials expected to visit the Middle East this week. William J Burns, the CIA director will visit Qatar while Brett McGurk, Mr Biden’s Middle East co-ordinator will visit Egypt and Qatar.

This is Mr Hochstein's fifth visit to the region in an attempt to prevent the near-daily strikes between Israel and Hezbollah on the Lebanese-Israeli border from escalating into a full-scale war.

Hezbollah opened a front at the border on October 8th, in support of its ally, Hamas, a day after the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war.

Hezbollah's frustration

Back-channel diplomacy has faced major hurdles in the wake of Mr Shukr's killing with growing frustration from Hezbollah's side.

The commander's death shocked Lebanon, as the government publicly said it had received foreign assurances that Israel would not attack Beirut's suburbs.

“It was a misunderstanding,” a source told The National, stressing that foreign powers were given no guarantees about the nature of Israel's attack, which also killed an Iranian military adviser and at least five civilians.

Israel said it was in retaliation for a rocket attack from Lebanon on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that killed 12 children. It was the first time since October that civilians had been killed in Beirut's southern suburbs, where Hezbollah holds sway. Mr Shukr, a founder of the militant group, was also one of its most senior military figures.

The incident has not severed backdoor diplomatic channels between the group and the US, although there is now a growing frustration within the group, the source said.

“The rhetoric has become more aggressive towards the West,” added the source.

Pro-Hezbollah media called Mr Hochstein a “godfather of deception”.

'Recalibrating' the retaliation

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Foreign Ministry have rejected numerous European calls for restraint over its retaliation against Israel.

“A punitive response to an aggressor is a right of nations and a solution for stopping crimes and aggression,” Mr Pezeshkian told British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has vowed that he would avenge Mr Shukr’s death “whatever the consequences”

Yet, diplomacy still has a role to play, the source said. “Recalibrating Iran’s response downwards is possible, and it’s not ruled out that it may have already been done.”

Lebanese officials previously told The National that mediators had indirectly offered incentives to resolve Lebanon's political and financial crisis in exchange for a limited response from Hezbollah.

“They are unlikely to be effective. Hezbollah does not trade economic positions for political ones,” the diplomat said. Rather than economic promises, the prospect of a looming regional war, which Hezbollah and Iran have repeatedly said they do not want and the promise of a ceasefire in Gaza seem to be more compelling arguments for Iran and its proxies.

Political sources confirmed that Hezbollah has refused any “incentives”.

Mr Hochstein's trip comes as mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have called on Israel and Hamas to meet on August 15 to resume ceasefire talks and reach a hostage release deal.

Iranian officials said only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would “delay” the retaliation against Israel.

Ceasefire talks have repeatedly failed except for a one-week truce at the end of November. A source involved in the negotiations told The National on Wednesday there is “little hope for a breakthrough to emerge from this week's talks, with Israel's continuing insistence on prosecuting the war until Hamas's demise, which is undermining the efforts of mediators”.

“The more time goes by … the more the odds and the chances go up for accidents, for mistakes, for inadvertent targets to be hit that could easily cause escalation that gets out of control,” Mr Hochstein warned in Beirut.