Pezeshkian presidency is unlikely to impact Iran's regional policies, experts say

Incoming president's focus is expected to be restricted to improving ties with the West and addressing internal discontent

Masoud Pezeshkian's policies as Iran's president will largely be determined by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Getty Images

The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran's president is not likely to have an impact on Tehran's regional policies, experts have told The National.

Mr Pezeshkian, a reformist, is set to take office with Iran facing international isolation, internal discontent, an economy in a downwards spiral and the possibility of direct conflict with Israel.

He vowed to open Iran to the world in his electoral campaign, which also focused on rebuilding trust between the government and the Iranian people, improving the economy and easing restrictions under Iran's strict morality laws.

“The only problem is that the president is not the final decision-maker in Iran, his mandate is usually quite limited,” Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser on the Middle East and North Africa at International Crisis Group, told The National.

“He's able to set the tone for the country, but he doesn't really make any of the big decisions – the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] does.

“He's going to be very constrained in his ability to carry out any kind of reformist agenda unless the supreme leader is fully on board. That's internally and externally – the same thing goes,” Ms Esfandiary said.

“It all really depends on how much of a loose leash the supreme leader will give him.”

Farzan Sabet, a senior researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute who specialises in Iranian foreign policy, said there were serious questions regarding how much change and reform the new president is willing to pursue, and how effectively he can carry them out.

“Based on his election rhetoric, and advisers and surrogates on the campaign trail, a Pezeshkian government will likely mainly focus on trying to reduce or even reverse tensions with the West, especially the United States, through dialogue and negotiations; reduce repression at home, especially around the hijab issue and cyberspace; and better manage the economy,” Mr Sabet said.

Trita Parsi, an Iranian expert and the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Mr Pezeshkian “has argued for the need to engage the US in direct talks and will likely bring back the foreign policy team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany”.

The deal, reached during the administration of former president Hassan Rouhani, brought Iran economic respite with the lifting of sanctions but quickly unravelled after then president Donald Trump pulled the US out of the pact and reimposed sanctions in 2018, prompting Tehran to revive its nuclear enrichment programme.

However, Mr Pezeshkian is unlikely to have a significant impact on Iran's regional policies, Mr Parsi said in an article for his institute's online magazine published on June 28, when Iran held the first round of the presidential election.

“Iran will continue to lead the so-called Axis of Resistance and continue to support its network of militias across the Middle East,” he wrote.

He was referring to the network of Iran-aligned political and militia groups opposed to Israel and the United States.

At the same time, Iran “will continue to seek improved relations with its Arab neighbours, partly to help neutralise western sanctions”.

Mr Sabet said a window for change could arise with the death of Mr Khamenei, 85, who has been reported to suffer poor health.

“In the medium to long term, the political orientation of the president when Ayatollah Khamenei passes away could turn out to be important.

“If Pezeshkian is in place when that happens, he could make a meaningful difference to the political trajectory of Iran, if he wants to, and rises to the occasion,” he said.