Border town Israelis fear all-out war with Hezbollah now ‘inevitable’


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A thunderous boom from nearby Israeli artillery fire sends Mancha, Lior Shelef’s six-year-old dog, scurrying back inside his two-storey home in Kibbutz Snir, a few kilometres south of the border with Lebanon.

“She’s completely messed up,” Mr Shelef says of his beloved white and brown Canaan, who remains scared of the rockets and artillery fire that for the past eight months have echoed in the rugged region, in the shadow of Mount Hermon.

Mr Shelef, 48, an army reservist, was born and raised in the kibbutz, in the north-eastern corner of Israel, sandwiched between the occupied Golan Heights and Lebanon. He worked as a tour guide before the Gaza war began on October 7, but now relies on his military experience to help fortify his kibbutz from Hezbollah rocket fire.

He has arranged concrete blocks and sand bags to provide cover. He knows which parts of the community are vulnerable to missile fire and where not to linger. He has a full military kit ready to go on his driveway and rarely leaves the house without his rifle.

His front garden remains littered with children's toys, even though it has been eight months since his wife and three young children lived in the home he built for them.

Uprooted by fighting

Mr Shelef’s family are among the more than 60,000 Israelis the government ordered to leave after the beginning of the Israel-Gaza war in October, which led to a sharp increase in cross-border fire with Hezbollah. Tens of thousands of Lebanese have also been forced from their homes in fear of Israeli strikes on the south of their country.

His family now live in a hotel, a 30-minute drive from the kibbutz, out of range from Hezbollah attacks. But the emotional and psychological effects of this slow-burning conflict have already taken a toll.

“My kids are, I'll be very honest, completely messed up from this war,” Mr Shelef says. “They needed to change schools and kindergartens – they have no stability in their lives.”

It is the uncertainty of whether they will be able to return home that weighs most heavily on the Shelef family. "At the beginning of the war, we expected this would take a month or two," he says. "We're now at 255 days – just to say that sentence is crazy."

Dozens of residents-turned-guards like Mr Shelef have worked to keep the community's green lawns and colourful flower beds healthy. They have ensured its agricultural economy functions under hails of rockets and keep summer wildfires at bay so those who fled the violence do not return home to charred ruins.

Israel has long valued border settlements, including Snir, as a key means to guard the frontiers of the state. Despite the dozens of heavily armed, highly trained men that remain, Mr Shelef is worried about the survival of his community.

"In the first and second Lebanon wars, we established a buffer zone on their side of the border," he tells The National. "Today it's the other way round, something the government literally created themselves when they evacuated residents."

He says the Israeli government has failed to keep people in the north informed during the violence and, in recent weeks, the exchanges between the military and Hezbollah have increased sharply. “I need to see a future, I need to see a horizon, I need to see that someone will take care of me,” he adds.

A motorcyclist rides out of Ein Qiniyye, a Druze village in the occupied Golan Heights. Willy Lowry / The National
A motorcyclist rides out of Ein Qiniyye, a Druze village in the occupied Golan Heights. Willy Lowry / The National

The bearded veteran said the situation along the border was “by far the worst” he had faced, partly because it has stripped him of his vision of the future.

“We chose to live here,” he says. “But I never felt as abandoned as I feel now and my love for my country hasn't changed. The problem is my love for my government … which is a bit of a problem.”

Need for diplomacy

As the conflict escalates, there is a growing fear in northern Israel that the worst is still ahead. “It seems like war is inevitable,” Mr Shelef says.

“I hope I'm wrong. What I hope for is a diplomatic decision, and I'm not just hoping for it for me. I am hoping for the people of Lebanon that that will happen for them. But people that live in the Mediterranean have blood in their veins that boils at 42 degrees on a daily basis. We are eager for fights."

On Monday, senior US envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel to discuss the situation at the border.

Mr Hochstein, who helped to broker the 2022 agreement between Israel and Lebanon that demarcated the maritime boundary between the countries, has held regular meetings with Israeli and Lebanese officials in a bid to stave off a full conflict.

A few kilometres from Kibbutz Snir, a deafening clap of Israeli artillery fire sounds over Ein Qiniyye, a Druze village in the Golan Heights. The sound is so familiar to residents now that a mother and her toddler playing in a leafy park barely acknowledge it.

Unlike some in other villages along the border, Ein Qiniyye residents have remained in their homes. But the 2,500 people who make up the community are struggling because economic opportunities have evaporated since the conflict started.

“All the people still here have a big problem,” says Wael Mugrabi, a former karate champion who now serves as village mayor. “They don’t have [enough] money now because they are not working.”

Mr Mugrabi, who said he identifies as Israeli, echoed the sentiments of Mr Shelef as he accused the government of forgetting about his village amid the rising tensions. “They don’t give us anything here in the north,” he tells The National.

With regards to the increased fighting and the possibility of an all-out war with Hezbollah, Mr Mugrabi does not mince his words.

“I think we are in the war,” he says. “We have been in the war since three days after October 7.”

Sole survivors
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Sector: Water technology 
 
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Investment raised: $4 million 

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The drill

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Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”

Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”

Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.” 

UAE jiu-jitsu squad

Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)

Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures

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Second legs:

October 23

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Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks. 

“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.

“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”

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Based: Abu Dhabi

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Sector: Aviation and space industry

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Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

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Updated: June 19, 2024, 6:51 AM