Syrian soldiers take part in a demining training exercise near Damascus to minimise the risk of running into their own landmines. AFP
Syrian soldiers take part in a demining training exercise near Damascus to minimise the risk of running into their own landmines. AFP
Syrian soldiers take part in a demining training exercise near Damascus to minimise the risk of running into their own landmines. AFP
Syrian soldiers take part in a demining training exercise near Damascus to minimise the risk of running into their own landmines. AFP

Syrian desert ambush shows limits to Al Assad's gains in civil war


Khaled Yacoub Oweis
  • English
  • Arabic

A deadly ambush of Syrian army soldiers near a desert supply route this week shed light on violent currents in strategic areas of the country, despite military advances by President Bashar Al Assad's forces.

The number of personnel killed on Wednesday in the Sukhnah area, 70km north-east of the city of Palymra, has varied from six to 21 soldiers, including two officers, according to loyalists who mourned the deaths on Facebook and published purported photos of the dead.

The attack occurred amid low-intensity Russian aerial bombing of suspected ISIS targets in the area, and as the Syrian army stationed more troops in the vicinity, according to an opposition figure, who did not want to be named because he is involved in intelligence gathering.

“There have been no real battles. But increased combing operations by the regime forces have exposed them to more risks of ambush and even running into their own, unmarked minefields,” the source said.

Suknah belongs to a part of the country that was captured by the military and pro-Iranian militias, from both ISIS and anti-Assad rebels at different stages of the civil war, now in its 13th year.

Regime forces were able to advance under massive Russian air cover, after Moscow's intervention in the Syrian civil war in late 2015.

Russia and Iran have since shared control of the area, which stretches north to the Euphrates River Valley, with ISIS fighters harassing their proxy militias from its rugged fringes.

Official Syrian media, which rarely discloses its own side’s military losses, has not reported on the ambush.

Some loyalists said the attack was carried out by ISIS while others referred to the attackers just as gunmen.

Dozens of soldiers, as well as pro-Iranian militia, mainly Shiite auxiliaries from Iraq, are killed in the area every year, without any mention in state media, Syrian opposition sources said.

They had been killed either by ISIS in a war of attrition the group has waged against US and Iranian proxies since a US-led campaign routed the group from most of eastern Syria in 2019. Others have died due to internal fighting, the sources said.

Clashes among the pro-Assad side are seen as occurring as result of competition over turf, protection money, oil smuggling and other aspects of the war economy.

A US air campaign, reliant on a Kurdish militia ground component, was instrumental in the demise of ISIS in Syria, although the group also fought Russian and Iranian-backed groups in the country, as well as anti-Assad rebel formations.

The civil war started in late 2011, after security forces suppressed a pro-democracy revolt, killing thousands of mainly Sunni civilians. The country has since fragmented along sectarian lines into zones controlled by regional and international powers.

The outpost of Sukhna, which sits between the M20 motorway and another road – both leading to the Euphrates, is a major supply line for Russian and Iranian-controlled zones, which contain gasfields and energy pipelines.

However, most of Syria's oilfields are situated in the US-controlled zone near Turkey.

Veteran Syrian political analyst Ayman Abdel Nour said the incident was politically advantageous to the regime because it comes at a time when calls are increasing in the West to reach an arrangement with the Syrian president.

The Assad regime gains in Europe and the US when it appears that its forces are a casualty of ISIS, Mr Abdel Nour said, cautioning that there was no definitive evidence that the extremist group was behind the attack.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Updated: June 13, 2024, 2:25 PM