Giving International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors access to the Iranian nuclear sites bombed last year would pave the way to lifting sanctions, a former senior official at the UN watchdog has told The National.
Inspectors are expected to return soon to Iran after an initial deal was signed last week to end the regional war. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Tehran will not obtain a nuclear weapon as a result of the war Washington launched alongside Israel in February.
The return of inspectors would start a process to verify Iranian claims that its nuclear programme is peaceful. Before the conflict, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. Uranium enriched to 90 per cent is needed to make a bomb.
"I believe Iran will eventually let the IAEA inspectors back in and I think it would help immensely. I also don't think it's going to be easy," said Laura Rockwood, former senior legal adviser on IAEA safeguards and now senior fellow at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
Speaking this week in Japan, IAEA director general Rafael Grossi said it was "not enough" for Iran to say it does not want to develop a nuclear weapon.
"We have to have a very strong verification system in place ... as soon as is practicable," he said. In March, he said that about half of the 60 per cent enriched uranium was probably still in tunnels near Isfahan.
Diversion tactics
Iran is likely to delay or dispute inspectors' access to bombed nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz – either as a negotiating tactic or to remove at least some of the enriched uranium, she said. "One might be concerned that the real reason is Iran would like to divert some of that material," she added.
Between the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in June last year and the regional war in February, Tehran blocked IAEA access to the bombed sites. Among the reasons given was that it was too dangerous to enter.
More recently, Tehran has pushed back on reports saying it had agreed to the return of inspectors, but western diplomats believe that will happen eventually.
former senior IAEA official
Should they return, IAEA inspectors are expected to "start with the declared nuclear sites and simultaneously try to ascertain whether there is any undeclared nuclear activity going on", Ms Rockwood said.
The Iran-US agreement includes the lifting of American and UN sanctions on Tehran, which has sought to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. "I would be surprised if Iran did not make readmission of the agency inspectors subject to sanctions being lifted," Ms Rockwood said.
Concessions
The lifting of UN sanctions requires the approval of the Security Council's five permanent members – the US, the UK, Russia, China and France. European countries, which pushed for UN sanctions to be reimposed on Iran in September, will expect further measures, including the removal of Iran's enriched uranium to another country, such as Russia, where it would be downblended.
The safest bet may be for Iran to agree to adhere to the additional protocol it signed in 2003 with the IAEA, which would give the agency more access to information and locations linked to Iran's nuclear activities.
"If they revert to just the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement, it is unlikely that would end up being sufficient to allow the IAEA to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme. There are just too many questions about what's going on," Ms Rockwood said.
The additional protocol had been provisionally introduced under the 2015 nuclear deal, which the US withdrew from in 2018. Mr Trump maintains that the new agreement is better.
"Iran can say 100 times, 'I'm not going to build a nuclear weapon', and saying it 10 more times isn't going to change anything," Ms Rockwood said. "You need to make sure that you have inspectors on the ground who are able to detect any indications of the resumption of a nuclear weapons programme."
But Iran may not feel compelled to make concessions on par with the 2015 deal. "Given the strength that they're feeling right now, they may not even agree to that which they agreed under the JCPOA," she added. "They may say, 'Go ahead, try me. We're in control of the strait [of Hormuz]. There's nothing you can do, but bomb us a few more times.'"
