European leaders are proposing building a drone wall on their eastern frontier to deter the growing number of Russian incursions, it emerged on Friday.
With reports of drones closing down European airports and a significant surge of Russian aircraft probes into Europe, the Ukraine war appears to be spiralling beyond its borders.
But Russia’s encroachment meant that Europe had “never been so united”, said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “Russia has ill intentions towards the whole world, and those who border with it are the first to feel it,” he said on Friday.
Kremlin probes
The Kremlin appears to be no longer concentrating purely on the Ukraine front, with an active policy to test Europe’s defences either with intrusion by drones or fighter planes. Officials said Russian involvement could not be ruled out in drone disruption against airports in Denmark on Thursday.
Countries along the EU's eastern border agreed on Friday for an urgent need to create a “wall” of anti-drone defences to protect against Russian incursions, said the bloc's defence commissioner, Andrius Kubilius.
Defence ministers from EU states had agreed during video talks that the “immediate priority” should be a “drone wall, with advanced detection, tracking, and interception capabilities”, he said.
This could be comprised of regiments of mounted anti-aircraft cannons, such as the German-made Gepard, stationed on the border along with belts of air defence missiles behind them, complemented with advanced radar detection.
Escalation miscalculation?
Moves from the east began on September 9 when an armada of between 19 and 23 unarmed Russian drones was deliberately flown into Poland. At least four were shot down. Warsaw triggered Nato’s Article 4 that calls for consultations with allies before major operations when a territory has been threatened.
Ten days later, three advanced MiG-31s flew into Estonian airspace apparently to test Nato’s quick reaction alert. The aircraft were escorted away by Italian air force F-35 fighters, with Sweden and Finland also scrambling jets.
Then on Thursday, Denmark had to close several airports after multiple drones, possibly deployed from ships, flew over them in what Danish authorities have called a “hybrid attack”, possibly linked to Russia.
The Kremlin’s policy was to threaten European allies that if necessary Russia was willing to take action against Nato’s eastern front, said Natia Seskuria, European security expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
“There’s also clear sign of escalation that is part of Russian strategy to intimidate Nato allies so President [Vladmir] Putin can put pressure on the West to give Russia what it wants in Ukraine,” she added. “That’s why the timing is quite important.”
Oil blitz
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s own drone strikes deep into Russia have created a shortage of diesel in Russia – vital for its armoured vehicles and transport in its Ukraine offensives – and Moscow has imposed an export ban that has already led to a rise in prices.
Kyiv’s assault on Russia’s oil infrastructure began in mid-August and, with drone production rising, they have been able to sustain it, causing a significant impact.
On Thursday, Ukraine attacked Salavat, one of Russia's biggest petrochemical sites, for the second time in a week, setting fire to a major crude distillation unit that provides 60 per cent of the plant’s production. The Salavat plant also accounts for almost 3 per cent of Russia’s total oil refining production.
The attacks are part of a pattern that has seen Kyiv strike at least 10 Russian oil refineries since August, which according to Reuters, has dealt “the biggest blow to the Russian economy since the start of the war”.
As a result, Russian’s refining capacity has shrunk by a fifth, with exports falling and production cuts under consideration.
A partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year was announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Thursday. These come alongside restrictions on gasoline exports.
The announcement has led to a sharp increase in international diesel prices as Russia accounts for 12 per cent of global seaborne exports with 888,000 barrels per day.
“Ukraine is conducting a calculated strategy to harm Russian critical infrastructure as we know that Russia is very much reliant on its energy resources,” Ms Seskuria told The National.
“This will have an impact on oil prices, which is of course damaging for Russia, especially within the context of fighting the war in Ukraine.”
VAT pain
The Institute for the Study of War think tank reported on Friday that Kremlin officials were “attempting to downplay” fuel shortages to domestic audiences.
“Several milbloggers from Russia’s ultranationalist community – one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most important constituencies − complained about the gas shortages and rising taxes on Russian citizens,” it said.
But Russian citizens have been hit with a VAT rise from 20 to 22 per cent, to make up for the shortfall in oil revenue, and the resultant rising inflation could “fuel additional social discontent in the near future”, ISW added.
