In a world that has become “less American” and more unpredictable, Britain and Europe have been forced to seek a new alliance to strengthen their defences.
That will be outlined on Monday, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosting a major conference with a new UK-EU security pact as its centrepiece.
Diehard Brexiteers are ready to condemn moves to draw Britain closer to the EU once again. The government's response is that hard-power rules of the new world order have heightened the importance of collective European defence.
“It's going to be a historical moment because this deal will redefine the relationship between the EU and UK, leading to UK participation in EU sponsored initiatives,” said Ester Sabatino, defence analyst at the IISS think tank.
The deal was more about “adapting to a world in which relying on long-term US military support is no longer a viable strategy”, said Olivia O’Sullivan, director of Chatham House’s UK in the World Programme. It was now a question of how Britain and the EU can “defend themselves better in a less American world”.
Who gains?
The deal should benefit both sides. Mr Starmer is expected to declare Britain and Europe face the “greatest threat in a generation” and the defence pact marks a “decisive moment”. On offer for the EU is the back-up of a military that brings experience, professionalism and power, albeit in far fewer numbers than the US can offer.
For the UK, aside from the Brexit politics that concern people increasingly less, it provides an opportunity to access the EU’s €150 million ($168 million) military build-up funds, Security Action for Europe (Safe).
That will give UK companies, such as defence giant BAE Systems, the chance to bid for contracts, although limits will be put on what countries outside the EU can get.
At the meeting of European leaders in London, negotiations will focus on greater fishing rights for the EU in British waters, as well as a potential “youth mobility” agreement for EU and British citizens.
While the defence element was important, said Ms O’Sullivan, the more enduring question was working together on “broader foreign policy goals” as the US changes its position while the power of the international rules-based order declines.
British military power
But what does Europe need if it is to defend itself against a Russian military that could well reconstitute its army within two years of ending hostilities in Ukraine?
Britain would bring the “ability to project power, to do things overseas of any duration”, said Ed Arnold, European security specialist at the Rusi think tank.
“The UK would really help, particularly in terms of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, which is a big weakness of EU militaries, as well as strategic airlift.”
This would almost certainly include allowing Britain’s well-regarded GCHQ security and cyber agency to share its intelligence.
Britain's role in Nato will remain the same despite the deal and the alliance will continue to be the primary defence pact.
Mass production
The EU’s main aim is to standardise its equipment as the continent’s armies currently have a wide variety of tanks, aircraft and artillery making for inefficiencies and unnecessary complications.
Europe is looking to develop two main armoured vehicles and two types of artillery pieces, then mass-produce them as quickly as possible, said Mr Arnold.
If these could be agreed and mass-produced it would significantly enhance defences and allow for vast export opportunities.
Big defence companies such as BAE could help, as well as providing extra 155mm artillery rounds that the EU needs for itself and for Ukraine for long-range precision weapons.
European investment is already coming to Britain, with German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall investing £400 million ($530.8 million) in a new artillery barrel-making factory.
UK Defence Secretary John Healey ecently raised the potential for German cyber security company Helsing investing £350 million to “drive development of AI in the UK, not in Germany”.
The deal will also allow for British armed forces equipment and troops to move swiftly across Europe without bureaucratic delays.
Polls show the agreement is popular in Britain and the EU, which could signal the first steps for much greater co-operation, after Brexit has produced few tangible positives.
“It’s recognition of what the UK has always said, that ‘yes, we are out of the EU, but we are not out of Europe’, and it’s going to continue to be part of the security and defence apparatus,” said Ms Sabatino.
Nuclear umbrella
One key element to European security is the protection the continent’s two nuclear powers can provide in America’s absence.
Britain has a stockpile of 225 nuclear warheads, with 40 continuously carried on board one of its four permanently deployed “bomber” submarines. France has about 300 warheads that it carries on submarines as well as aircraft.
Collectively, without the US, the two countries could provide a nuclear deterrence shield for its neighbours, with the UK’s Trident missiles having a range of more than 7,000km.
A future deal could be struck with Germany and other states for them to help finance the highly expensive deterrence programmes in return for protection.
However, the EU is already protected by nuclear weapons under Nato, although US vacillating has undermined this.
Exiting the EU?
Detractors of the deal, mainly Brexiteers, argue the EU’s command and control structures are much smaller and less experienced than Nato headquarters.
Also, Britain could be drawn into EU military missions over which it has no influence and the pact could further weaken the Nato alliance.
While Nato would take priority in any combat operations, the EU military has provided training missions in places such as the Sahel and the Balkans.
It has also deployed warships patrolling the Red Sea and elsewhere to fend off piracy and Houthi attacks. After Monday’s deal, there will be a strong likelihood of UK troop involvement in those operations.
