British military involvement in an international force in Ukraine, as suggested by the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, would require a “high bar” because of the risk to troops on the ground, Whitehall sources have told The National.
Preparations are being made in Europe to secure Ukraine from Russian attacks in the event that Donald Trump coming to power means the two warring sides would end the fighting.
For a ceasefire to hold, proposals are being considered by politicians on constituting a strong European military force that can act as a deterrent against further Russian aggression.
Mr Starmer is understood to have progressed planning for a European or Nato mission following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron last week then a trip to Kyiv to see President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.
After that meeting, he told journalists that “I don’t want to get ahead of discussions about precise roles, but we will play our full part,” and signalled British troops “would be part of any peacekeeping force”.
However, senior Whitehall sources have disclosed to The National that there were substantial risks in putting British troops into a situation where they might conflict with Russian forces.
"We are not confirming or denying this plan but there is a very high bar to putting UK troops at risk on the ground," the source said.
Tripwire force
With Mr Trump pressing for a peace deal to the three-year conflict within at least six months, plans are being considered as to how to keep the peace without Ukraine joining Nato, which in its Article 5 considers an armed attack on one member as an attack on all.
Placing European troops in Ukraine could work as a both a tripwire force to any Russian attack and as a potential deterrent.
In order to be an effective deterrent, the Ukraine stabilisation force would require large numbers with armoured vehicles and fighter jets, especially to patrol the 1,000km front line.
The Bosnian conflict of the 1990s was only stabilised after a Nato-led force of 60,000, that included US troops, was put in place after the failures of a UN-led force that largely contributed to the Srebrenica massacre of Muslims in 1995.
Military analyst Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Eye, argued that it would mainly be a “tripwire force” of a battlegroup of 900 British soldiers that would send a message to Russia stating “if you come over the border, you will start killing our guys, which means we will start killing you”.
It also demonstrated that the Ukraine’s allies “have skin in the game” and could trigger Nato’s Article 5 which “is very useful as a deterrent”.
Depleted army
However, there are concerns that given the British Army’s depleted numbers – it now has just 72,000 soldiers, compared with just over 100,000 in 2010 – it does not have enough personnel to contribute meaningfully.
“The army's so depleted, no one looks to the UK to provide substantial ground forces,” said Mr Tusa.
The RAF could surge a wing of 36 Eurofighter Typhoons but due to pilot shortages this could only last for six months, he added.
A Whitehall source stated that the proposal was “hypothetical at this stage” and that internal defence planning had been made with British forces “not ruled out”.
“If there is a negotiation and Ukraine wants to have peace, then we will support that, but we have to see how it plays out as quite a lot needs to happen,” the source added.
Retired colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon argued that despite their reduced numbers the British soldiers were “ideally placed” for the operation with an intelligent, even-handed approach to peacekeeping while also overseeing enforcement of the mission.
“The UK could be the framework nation for command and control and other Nato countries like France, Germany, and Finland will provide combat troops to cover various sectors of the front line,” he added
It was key to have Nato troops in any buffer as the Russian would “understand the firepower available”.
Testing resolve
There are also questions over whether the Russian would accept a force that is made up of countries which have supported Ukraine with arms, special forces and financing.
Ben Barry, of the IISS think tank, argued that the United Nations definition of a peacekeeping force is one drawn from non-warring parties, that could in this instance be Indians or Bangladeshis, but who are already stretched on UN deployments.
He added the force’s mission would have to be clearly defined as well as the rules of engagement as Russia could choose to attack it, particularly if no US troops were in it.
Even with a deterrent force in place they may well have to deal with Russian “hybrid, grey-zone warfare” such as a shelling of their locations that Moscow could blame on rogue forces.
“This could become a low level conflict to keep the pressure on the Ukrainian government and test the West’s resolve,” he said.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Dir: Francis Lawrence
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Joel Egerton, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons
Three stars
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
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UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Lily Allen
(Parlophone)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
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The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
