Donald Trump could allow Ukraine to “take the gloves off” in order to defeat Russia once he enters office, a US general has told The National.
The incoming president would send a strong message to China and other adversaries that America was willing use its power to achieve results, retired Gen Ben Hodges said.
Mr Trump has vowed that he would end the Ukraine conflict “in one day” but may well use his powers of coercion to bring an end to the three-year war in a longer time period.
“He could take the gloves off, let Ukraine use whatever they get, without any restriction from us and [show] that the United States has committed to them winning,” said Gen Hodges, who commanded US forces in Europe.
Mr Trump now has “a lot more leverage now than he did eight years ago” over President Vladimir Putin, as the Russian leader is “politically weaker and economically in big trouble”, said the officer.
The war has been a “catastrophe” for Russia, that has also indirectly led to the loss of Moscow's Syrian ally, former president Bashar Al Assad, whereas Mr Trump is politically in a strong position and will inherit a thriving US economy, said Gen Hodges.
Britain’s continued support for Ukraine was emphasised by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer arriving in Kyiv on Thursday, his first visit to the country as Britain's leader. He announced a “100-year partnership” between the countries.
The British leader reaffirmed his country’s alliance just days before Mr Trump takes office with the threat to axe US military aid to Kyiv.
“This is not just about the here and now, it is also about an investment in our two countries for the next century,” said Mr Starmer, emphasising partnerships in technology, science, culture and the wartime “phenomenal innovation” shown by Ukraine.
Front line warfare
Despite Russia making some modest advances in the last year – albeit at a huge cost, with potentially up to 300,000 dead and wounded, according to some sources – there are suggestions that both its military and economy are heading towards a crisis.
Despite several counter-attacks and the introduction of 12,000 North Korean troops, Moscow has still been unable to push Ukrainian forces out of 600 square kilometres of Russia’s Kursk province that they seized in August last year.
But Kyiv’s army is also under pressure, struggling to recruit enough troops to defend the 1,000km front line and still lacks sufficient firepower or numbers to launch a significant offensive.
However, it has demonstrated its increasingly capable air power with a significant blitz on Tuesday that saw 200 drones and several Storm Shadow cruise missiles strike targets up to 1,000km into Russia, including ammunition dumps, arms factories and oil and gas sites.
That firepower capability may well impress Mr Trump, said Gen Hodges. Although the incoming president will initially explore some compromise talks, if the Russians refuse to negotiate further, then he might take an entirely different approach, said the officer.
“He could say, ‘Vladimir, bad luck for you, but it’s in America’s interests that Ukraine is successful’,” said Gen Hodges. “Especially as the Chinese are watching, and we want the Chinese to see that we are serious about deterring them and so we're going to help Ukraine defeat Russia.”
While Mr Trump paid little attention to the international rules-based order, he did believe in “power and coercion” that he could use in Ukraine “with an eye towards influencing China's behaviour”, added the officer.
Not panicking
President Joe Biden has overseen a huge financial and military package to Kyiv. By the end of last year, US Congress had approved $175 billion in total assistance for Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, according to non-partisan non-profit organisation the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
However, there has been some criticism of restrictions on the use of weapons supplied as part of this package – particularly the HIMARS precision rockets and Storm Shadow cruise missiles. It was not until November that Washington authorised for these to be fired into Russian territory.
While that “kept Ukraine in the fight”, it was “never going to help them defeat Russia”, said Gen Hodges. “So, I don't get the sense that they're panicking about the arrival of the Trump administration.”
Kyiv also took comfort in the large number of Republicans in Congress who were “very pro-Ukraine, pro-Europe and pro-Nato”, he added.
Furthermore, there was $2 billion of US military aid already authorised by Congress that could give him further leverage. Mr Trump could potentially tell the Kremlin that “I'm going to open the gates and let them have what's already been approved without restriction”, said Gen Hodges.
Both suffering
Another issue for Mr Putin is that Gen Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s special envoy for the conflict, did not trust the Russians which was “a good starting point for any negotiation with them”, said Gen Hodges.
“He also talks about the importance of Ukrainian sovereignty, and that's important,” he added.
But Gen Hodges warned that the Ukrainians too have their own problems. While its defence industry is massively increasing capability, there is a “serious shortage of troops, but not a shortage of people,” said the officer, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan.
“They have to regain the confidence of Ukrainian families so that they will trust their son or daughter will not be wasted on the battlefield.”
But holding back the might of the Russian army for three years has demonstrated that the invaders were not invincible “and neither is defeat for Ukraine inevitable”, said Gen Hodges.
That was demonstrated by reports that Russia has lost 9,000 armoured vehicles in the last year and is having to resort to using golf carts and motorbikes on the battlefield.
“That illustrates to me just how stretched Russia is,” the officer said. “And they did not even have the ability to save their friend Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
“So, unless Trump just completely pulls the plug and does things that are harmful to Ukraine, the country will still very much be standing at the end of this year.”
Ultimately Russia “does not control how this is going to end”, Gen Hodges concluded, and suggested that it could be militarily defeated by the end of 2025.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
