Terror threat upgrade shows 'one attack won't be enough' for ISIS


Thomas Harding
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An ISIS terror campaign across Europe, Russia and the Middle East is expected to follow the Moscow massacre as “one attack is not enough”, security experts have told The National.

Extremists from ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) who killed 137 people in the Crocus City Hall attack were highly likely to have been acting under orders from the group's central commanders based in the Middle East.

With the likelihood of the attack raising more funds and recruits, the Islamic extremist group will probably launch more assaults to demonstrate that it is no longer a spent force, analysts have said.

Western security agencies are on high alert for more potential attacks, especially in France, Sweden and the Netherlands.

The burnt-out interior of Crocus City Hall following the deadly attack on the concert venue outside Moscow. Reuters
The burnt-out interior of Crocus City Hall following the deadly attack on the concert venue outside Moscow. Reuters

ISIS changes tack

Following the March 22 attack in Russia and the arrests of four Tajik gunmen, attention has been focused on the apparent resurgence of ISIS-K, based in Central Asia.

But terror expert Antonio Giustozzi told The National that the orders for the attack almost certainly came from ISIS commanders currently sheltering in Syria, Iraq or Turkey.

“ISIS-Khorasan had a support role but it was the central leadership which gave the orders to do this,” said the analyst at the Rusi think tank.

“They realised that they are in terminal decline, they have no ‘caliphate’, and an image problem of defeats and losses so they are trying to change the narrative.”

The focus now is on more high-profile attacks that will attract the tens of millions of dollars the group needs to fund its campaign.

“That is why they needed to innovate with a target like Moscow, to show that ‘we are still relevant’ and public enemy number one,” Dr Giustozzi said.

Police near the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris where at least 120 people were killed in 2015. AFP
Police near the Bataclan concert hall in central Paris where at least 120 people were killed in 2015. AFP

Target Europe

The graphic imagery from the Moscow attack is highly likely to influence young men to join ISIS's ranks and prepare for an attack in Europe, which has not witnessed a major atrocity since the Paris attacks in 2015.

But with anti-immigrant right-wing Islamophobic political parties gaining power in several countries, there are vulnerabilities that ISIS can prey on.

“The problem after a big attack like this succeeds is others get inspired to do it, including lone-wolf types, with a surge in the recruitment space,” a British security official said.

Western intelligence agencies have “raised the ISIS threat one of the biggest concerns out there”, he added, as the group's classic strategy is to “generate interreligious conflict”.

Dr Giustozzi pointed to France and the Netherlands as likely targets because of the “strong tensions between the communities” and “Islamophobic sentiments”.

In November last year, the anti-Muslim PVV party won the most seats in the Dutch Parliament. It leader, Geert Wilders, has previously promised to shutter mosques and ban the publication of the Quran.

A provocative ISIS attack, like striking a church service, “could create the reaction from the hard right like burning a mosque”, said Dr Giustozzi.

“Their aim is surviving via a campaign of terrorist attacks showing that they are not finished and can do things that nobody else can,” added Dr Giustozzi, who is the author of several works on the extremist group.

“To raise the money they need, ISIS require a big project and one attack is not enough.”

Former ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, who was killed in 2019. AP
Former ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, who was killed in 2019. AP

Khorasan role

Ever since its defeat in Syria in 2019, ISIS has been forced underground, but Moscow, alongside several less prominent attacks in recent years, demonstrated that it has not disappeared.

The US, in particular, remains focused on destroying its leadership in Syria, Iraq and Turkey. This has forced ISIS to use its affiliates in Khorasan – a historical region that today is largely made up of Afghanistan, Iran and Turkmenistan – to carry out attacks.

“It is more practical to do it from mountains of Afghanistan than from the desert of Syria,” said Dr Giustozzi.

“Khorasan also has a lot of Central Asians, who can handle day-to-day management of cells in Russia, Europe and Asia. It is a large organisation to manage.”

It is understood that there is a tacit agreement between the US and the Taliban that their drones can overfly Afghanistan but cannot bomb, even if they have ISIS-K commanders in their sights.

But they are able to gain valuable “signals intelligence” from ISIS-K, which had been passed on to the Russians before the Moscow attack, and previously to Iran before the bombing in January in which 100 people were killed at a memorial event for Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani.

However, given the distrust between the nations, the warnings were largely ignored.

A police officer searches a man at the entrance to the Red Square. EPA
A police officer searches a man at the entrance to the Red Square. EPA

Russia return

Given ISIS's success in Russia and the antagonism Central Asians feel towards President Vladimir Putin’s regime, analysts predict a rise in attacks there.

This could be stoked by Russia, where 10 per cent of the population is Muslim, rounding up and abusing suspected extremists.

“The consequence is that the Russians overreact or that others get inspired and radicalised,” the British official said.

“ISIS have been trying to do this in Russia for a long time and this one got through.”

The extremist group's propaganda also uses Mr Putin’s war in Chechnya and his strong relationship with Tajikistan’s leader Emomali Rahmon as well as his support for Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad as evidence of Moscow’s anti-Muslim stance.

But there is also a chance of an ISIS resurgence in the Middle East if the Israel-Gaza war spreads.

“ISIS operations have diversified into Africa and now Asia but the Middle East has meaning for them in a way that their other areas don’t,” said a former counter-terrorism analyst.

“They will never give up trying to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East so it is key that the region does not spiral into war again as conflict and chaos is what ISIS thrives on.”

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

A cryptocurrency primer for beginners

Cryptocurrency Investing  for Dummies – by Kiana Danial 

There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine. 

Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.

Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this  book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.

Begin your cryptocurrency journey here. 

Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104 

What are the influencer academy modules?
  1. Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
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Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Director: Scott Cooper

Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong

Rating: 4/5

How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

Company Fact Box

Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019

Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO

Based: Amman, Jordan

Sector: Education Technology

Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed

Stage: early-stage startup 

Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

Royal wedding inspired menu

Ginger, citrus and orange blossom iced tea

Avocado ranch dip with crudites

Cucumber, smoked salmon and cream cheese mini club sandwiches

Elderflower and lemon syllabub meringue

Biography

Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related

Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.

Family: Wife and three children.

Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

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if you go

Getting there

Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.

Staying there

On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.

More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr

RESULTS

1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner AF Almomayaz, Hugo Lebouc (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)

2pm Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner Karaginsky, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.

2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Sadeedd, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.

3pm Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner Blue Sovereign, Clement Lecoeuvre, Erwan Charpy.

3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.

4pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Bladesmith, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.

4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m

Winner Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.

Company profile

Name: Steppi

Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic

Launched: February 2020

Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year

Employees: Five

Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai

Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings

Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year

White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogenChromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxideUltramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica contentOphiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on landOlivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour

Brief scores:

Day 1

Toss: India, chose to bat

India (1st innings): 215-2 (89 ov)

Agarwal 76, Pujara 68 not out; Cummins 2-40

The Bio

Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.

Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.

Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.

Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.

Tips for taking the metro

- set out well ahead of time

- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines

- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on

- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers

RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES

September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand

October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia

The specs
Engine: 2.5-litre, turbocharged 5-cylinder

Transmission: seven-speed auto

Power: 400hp

Torque: 500Nm

Price: Dh300,000 (estimate)

On sale: 2022 

GROUPS AND FIXTURES

Group A
UAE, Italy, Japan, Spain

Group B
Egypt, Iran, Mexico, Russia

Tuesday
4.15pm
: Italy v Japan
5.30pm: Spain v UAE
6.45pm: Egypt v Russia
8pm: Iran v Mexico

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Updated: March 28, 2024, 12:50 PM