Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Moscow on Monday for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. Experts believe the tour is aimed at deepening the bilateral relations and accelerating economic and trade ties.
India is a long-time partner of Russia, and New Delhi has sought to continue its relationship with Moscow despite the US and western countries urging nations to sever ties, threatening sanctions for trade relations in certain sectors.
The two-day visit by Mr Modi is at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the 22nd Russia-India annual summit - the highest dialogue mechanism in the partnership between the nations.
This would also be Mr Modi’s first foreign visit since returning to power for a third time in June.
India’s External Affairs Ministry said the leaders will “review the entire range of multifaceted relations and exchange views on contemporary regional and global issues of mutual interest”.
Mr Modi had last visited Moscow in 2019, whereas Mr Putin was in New Delhi in 2021.
The leaders have met several times at international summits and often spoken over the phone.
New Delhi has refused to explicitly condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and repeatedly abstained from voting on western-backed resolutions at the UN, since the war broke out in February 2022.
It has repeatedly stressed resolving disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.
“There is really no disagreement that Russia is a consistent and strategic partner; there are no hiccups in this relationship. The visit is linked with Indian and Russian economy, defence and geostrategy,” Anuradha M Chenoy, a Delhi-based expert on Russia and former dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told The National.
“It is an important visit, and the world will be watching. India has supported Russia; it did not criticise Russia in the UN and abstained continuously and Russia is very grateful for that, and Russia has supported India internationally.”
Trade ties
Russia is an important trade partner for India.
The South Asian nation exports drugs and other pharmaceutical products, chemicals, iron and steel and coffee.
Bilateral trade between the nations had reached an all-time high of $65.70 billion in the last financial year, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
India’s exports were at $4.26 billion, whereas its imports stood at $61.44 billion in 2023-24.
New Delhi also started buying discounted oil from Russia to fulfil its energy requirements, despite crippling West-backed economic sanctions on Russia since its military campaign in Ukraine. India's oil imports increased tenfold in 2022, according to Bank of Baroda, reaching 20 per cent of the country's imported crude.
Those imports reached 40 per cent in 2023.
Arms trade partner
Russia has also been India’s critical source of weapons and military technology. Before the Ukraine war, New Delhi sourced around 85 per cent of the country’s military equipment from Moscow.
This began to slump in the wake of US sanctions on Russian arms exports, which have tightened since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Since the 2022 Ukraine war, a combination of tighter western sanctions and Russian prioritising of its war effort have seen India's imports of Russian arms drop to 36 per cent of New Delhi's total supply, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
New Delhi nonetheless has a long list of Russian-made military inventories ranging from fighter jets and nuclear submarines to battle tanks and assault rifles.
The two countries have deals on supplying 750,000 AK-203 assault rifles and a $5.43 billion deal for S-400 ‘Trimuf’ anti-aircraft system.
Russia has already delivered three units of the missiles and is expected to deliver the remaining two by 2025.
There are also reports that the Russian state-controlled oil giant Rosneft has plans to make big investments in India.
Indian Railways has also issued a contract with Russian Metrowagonmash, a leading engineering company, for manufacturing 120 Vande Bharat trains, the indigenous semi-high-speed trains.
Russia imports coal, fertilisers, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones and vegetable oils.
The two nations are working on a financial plan to bypass global dollar trade through their rupee-rouble mechanism.
“India-Russia trade has been in rupee-rouble trade bypassing the dollar, which is very convenient for India, but India is importing more but Russia is not importing as much,” Ms Chenoy said.
“There is a balance of trade issue where Russia has accumulated a lot of Indian rupees but because of sanctions, has not been able to utilise the rupees.”
“It will be high on Mr Modi’s agenda.”
Geostrategy
New Delhi and Moscow are strong geostrategic partners and are part of several trilateral and multilateral forums and economic corridors.
India is part of the International North-South Transport Corridor, an initiative by Russia, Iran, and India to enhance trade and transport connectivity among countries along its route to counter western sanctions.
New Delhi is also funding the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, an ambitious sea route that aims at increasing trade between the two countries and India’s presence in the Asia-Pacific, where China remains a dominant player.
China has massively increased its economic and military footprint in the Asian region, particularly with Pakistan, India’s arch-rival.
Tensions have remained high between New Delhi and Beijing, particularly since 2020 when a deadly clash erupted between the rival militaries along the disputed Himalayan border region.
Russia tried to play peacemaker and de-escalate tensions between the regional powers and helped facilitate a meeting between the Indian and Chinese foreign ministers in Moscow in 2020.
Russia over the decades has vetoed several resolutions seeking UN interventions in Kashmir – the Himalayan disputed territory claimed by both India and Pakistan.
China also rules a portion of the erstwhile Himalayan Kingdom known as Aksai Chin, which is now part of the Chinese Xinjiang and Tibet region.
New Delhi is engaged in a tense border dispute with both Islamabad and Beijing, with a decades-long armed insurgency raging in the part of Kashmir ruled by India.
"India is a long-time partner of Russia and New Delhi has sought to continue its relationship with Moscow despite ons with India,” Ms Chenoy said.
“Russia is willing to extend any goodwill that both countries might want but they don’t want to intervene in India’s domestic issues. They hope India and China will improve their relationship and there will be a resolution.”
