France's position on Iran has become detached from the most logical outcome of the current crisis, which is that Paris should toughen its position on the regime in an effort to precipitate its fall, a senator has said.
France had for years a firm stance on the removal of Tehran's nuclear weapons programme but had stalled on backing an EU designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, until a last minute U-turn last week.
Some fear the government is calling the situation wrongly. The fall of the Iranian regime is “inevitable,” according to Francois Bonneau, a centrist member of the upper chamber. “There is such deep rejection and resentment among the population towards this theocracy that it is no longer tenable,” he told The National.
He urged France and Europe to step up sanctions against senior Iran officials and consider military options. “Why not? The French army is deployed in the region,” he said. “This regime must fall; it no longer has the support of its people.”
Europeans did not participate in US and Israeli military strikes against Iran in June and caution against further attacks, fearing a ripple effect across the Middle East as the security situation in Gaza and in Syria remain fragile.
The position appears out of step with France's firm stance on Iran's nuclear programme where it championed a reimposition of punitive UN sanctions less than six months ago.
The ambivalence has been described as “schizophrenic” by Mr Bonneau, who adds that the regime can be toppled “without anarchy”.
Protests started in the Tehran bazaar in late December over soaring inflation and cost of living before quickly spreading to the rest of the country in what has been described as the largest protest movement in decades.
In France, the mass killings of protesters made headline news. The view in Paris is that there are around 7,000 dead and 17,000 people whose fate is uncertain and are either dead or in prison.
“The images we saw – this blind repression – horrified many French people,” said Mr Bonneau, who complained that France was “not acting as strongly as other European countries” to support the Iranian people.
“We know very well that [the IRGC] is an organisation that not only propagates terror on its own soil but also promotes the terrorism of Hezbollah and all the enemies of Israel and the Gulf states.”
Prince as symbol
Reports show that the diaspora is divided between those for and against the deposed shah's son Reza Pahlavi, who lives in the US and has sought to insert himself as an alternative to Iran's current leadership. From his contacts, the senator feels the ex-royal has a rallying role.
“I don't necessarily feel he's the most suitable person to represent the future of this country,” Mr Bonneau said. “However, he could be useful during a period of transition to rally enough people around him to rebuild the country.”
An unaffiliated right-wing politician who sits with the Senate's centrist group, Mr Bonneau on January 28 challenged Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot – also centrist – in a public Senate hearing, saying that France has a “duty to intervene” to stop Tehran from brutally killing thousands of protesters, and warning that the only alternative is “indifference.”
The comments made by Mr Bonneau, who is also on the Senate's committee on foreign affairs, triggered a strong response from the minister: “Senator, “indifference,” really? Last year, France was undoubtedly the country that exerted the strongest pressure against this regime.” Sanctions and condemnations of the Iranian government are simply “procrastination,” Mr Bonneau replied.
At the time of the exchange, France was the last EU country to oppose listing the IRGC, after historic holdouts Spain and Italy announced earlier in the week a change of position.
Untenable position
A few hours after the exchange between Mr Barrot and Mr Bonneau in the Senate, President Emmanuel Macron's office made it known to journalists that France now supported the listing of the IRGC as a terrorist organisation. This paved the way to find consensus on the EU listing the IRGC one day later.
Few had believed France would budge because it had long argued the designation would be counterproductive for negotiating the fate of its prisoners in Iran, and two of its citizens remain stuck in the embassy in Tehran. At the same time, other EU states like Sweden were publicly calling for listing the IRGC despite the fact that some of its citizens are in Iranian jails.
The legacy of French involvement in the last Iranian revolution in 1979 casts a long shadow over the country's debate on Iran's future.
“The situation was no longer tenable or defensible at the European level, or even at the French level,” Mr Bonneau said. “Did French diplomacy not want to sever ties with the Iranian regime?
“I see no other rational explanation. In any case, the situation has deteriorated so much and the horrors committed by the regime are … well known enough that we have no illusions about the role of both Ayatollah Khamenei and his supporters.
“[Yet] we hosted Ayatollah Khomeini. We brought the revolution back to Iranian soil.”
A foreign military intervention in Iran is unlikely to have the same negative consequences as previous experiences in Iraq or in Libya, Mr Bonneau argued. He pointed at a missed opportunity in Syria at the start of its civil war which then emboldened Russia to attack Crimea in 2014. Iran “is a country where the level of education is good, and whether you're a man or a woman, there's still a strong core,” Mr Bonneau said.
US ambivalence
Despite initial threats of bombing Iran in view of the repression against civilians, US President Donald Trump appears to have favoured diplomacy with talks expected between US and Iran mediators later this week.
Mr Trump's change of heart will leave a “stain” on his legacy, as it appears some protesters had been emboldened by his promises, Mr Bonneau fears. Iran has said it will only discuss its nuclear programme with the US and not its ballistic capabilities despite the US wanting a package deal. Friday's talks have been confirmed to take place in Oman but it is not clear what a failure to deliver a breakthrough would mean. “The key question for the coming month is whether the Americans will decide to strike or not,” Mr Bonneau said.
