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Mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar agreed on Tuesday to new proposals to end the war in Gaza, sources briefed on the talks told The National.
The proposals include a six-week pause in the fighting during which a prisoner and hostage swap between Israel and Hamas would be undertaken.
The sources said the pause would be offered “on the understanding” that a comprehensive ceasefire would follow. The proposals also include a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the formation of an interim Palestinian government made up of technocrats to run the territory while reconstruction of the enclave is carried out, the sources said.
Hamas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have been informed of the latest proposals and the mediators are awaiting their formal response, said the sources.
The proposals were reached during talks in Cairo on Tuesday that brought together CIA director William Burns, his Egyptian and Israeli counterparts and Qatar's Prime Minister and intelligence chief.
The quartet of nations met late last month in Paris when they hammered out a plan to end the fighting in Gaza. Hamas, however, made counterproposals that Israel rejected outright, sending the talks back to the drawing board.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met separately on Tuesday with Mr Burns and the Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman. The president's office said the meetings reviewed the situation in Gaza, efforts to halt the fighting and ensuring the supply of humanitarian aid to the territory.
The latest round of talks in Cairo comes amid growing fears of heavy civilian casualties if Israel goes ahead with plans to take its ground operations into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than half of the enclave's 2.3 million people have sought refuge from the fighting.
Earlier on Tuesday, an AP report quoted an unnamed Egyptian official saying mediators had achieved “relatively significant” progress in indirect contacts between Israel and Hamas before the Cairo meeting.
The official said the meeting would focus on “crafting a final draft” of a six-week ceasefire deal, with guarantees that the parties would continue negotiations towards a permanent ceasefire.
Speaking at the White House on Monday, US President Joe Biden also spoke about a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas which would bring an immediate and sustained period of calm into Gaza for at least six weeks.
Saying he was working on the issue “day and night”, Mr Biden said a six-week break in hostilities would provide a foundation “to build something more enduring”.
Notably, the renewed negotiations coincide with growing tension between Egypt and Israel which have led to Cairo threatening to void their 1979 peace treaty if a major ground assault on Rafah is launched.
The treaty limits the number of troops on both sides of their border in the Sinai Peninsula, although the two nations have in the past agreed to modify those arrangements in response to specific security threats. This has allowed Israel to focus its military on other threats.
In anticipation of a Rafah offensive, Egypt has reinforced its military presence on the border with Gaza and Israel, placing forces on high alert, and stepped up ground patrols and reconnaissance flights over the area, informed sources in Cairo said.
It has matched these moves with hard-line rhetoric, saying a ground operation in Rafah would have “dire” consequences.
Like the US and other nations, Egypt fears an Israeli incursion into Rafah will result in massive civilian casualties and leave hundreds of thousands of Palestinians with no place to go except across the border in the Sinai Peninsula.
Cairo says Israel would not allow Palestinians who seek refuge in Egypt to return home, placing another hurdle before any future talks to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The potential influx of Palestinians into Egypt's sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula would also jeopardise Egypt's national security, Cairo fears.
However, suspending the 1979 treaty would have serious ramifications for Egypt, which has received billions of dollars in US military and economic assistance as a reward for signing it and adhering to its provisions.
Fuelling the tension, Egypt and Israel were involved in yet another public spat on Monday over a claim by Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that Cairo bore “considerable responsibility” for Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war.
Mr Netanyahu appears unperturbed by the growing calls for him not to take ground operations to Rafah.
He has over the weekend confirmed Israel's intention to invade the city. He said his government was working on a plan to evacuate it beforehand, although it is not clear where more than one million displaced Palestinians could go in Gaza and be safe.
Mr Netanyahu has also rejected proposals offered by Hamas last week that included a four-and-a-half-month ceasefire during which all hostages would be freed, Israel would withdraw its troops from Gaza and an agreement would be reached on an end to the war.
They also included the release of up to 5,000 Palestinians jailed by Israel in return for the estimated 130 hostages it has in its custody, including the bodies of those who are dead.
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said on Monday that the group “has shown great flexibility in the talks to end the aggression and swap the captives, but the occupation is still stalling and disrespecting the efforts that are being done”.
The Israeli military campaign in Gaza – launched after Hamas killed about 1,200 people and took about 240 hostages in southern Israel on October 7 – has killed more than 28,000 Palestinians, displaced about 85 per cent of the enclave's population and destroyed much of its built-up areas.
During a week-long truce in late November, more than 100 hostages held by Hamas and about 200 Palestinians from Israeli prisons were released. Of the 240 believed to be held by Hamas, nearly 30 are presumed dead.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”