Mosul was left in ruins after an eight-month struggle by Iraqi forces to defeat ISIS militants in the city. Getty Images
Mosul was left in ruins after an eight-month struggle by Iraqi forces to defeat ISIS militants in the city. Getty Images
Mosul was left in ruins after an eight-month struggle by Iraqi forces to defeat ISIS militants in the city. Getty Images
Mosul was left in ruins after an eight-month struggle by Iraqi forces to defeat ISIS militants in the city. Getty Images

Fallujah, Mosul, Mariupol: Lessons for Gaza war from brutal urban battles


Tim Stickings
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Urban warfare has produced some of the most brutal battles of the 21st century. In Fallujah in 2004, US Marines went house-to-house in a struggle with Iraqi insurgents that left hundreds of civilians dead.

Twelve years later, Iraqi forces spent more than eight months forcing ISIS militants out of Mosul in a battle that killed thousands and reduced the old city to ruins.

And in Ukraine in 2022, Russia attacked the port of Mariupol on day one of its invasion and captured it 86 days later after a bloody siege of its steelworks.

It is with these unpromising precedents that Israel is preparing to mount a ground offensive in Gaza, one of the world’s most densely populated areas.

The US has confirmed that it is sharing “20 years of lessons learnt” with the Israelis as they face up to Hamas’s drones, booby traps and network of tunnels in Gaza.

With President Joe Biden urging Israel not to be “blinded by rage” and repeat America’s post-9/11 mistakes, it also faces the question of what to do next if it overthrows Hamas.

“Soldiers will be asking, and commanders should be asking, what it is that you want to achieve with this mission exactly,” said Frank Ledwidge, who served as a UK military intelligence officer in Iraq and has written books criticising the conduct of Britain’s Middle East wars.

“The elimination of Hamas won’t do. That’s an operational objective. What is it that strategically you’re going to do?”

Hamas is expected to exploit its tunnel system under Gaza, as seen in a 2022 propaganda film with an actor portraying a fighter. AP
Hamas is expected to exploit its tunnel system under Gaza, as seen in a 2022 propaganda film with an actor portraying a fighter. AP

Hamas tactics

At a tactical level, Mr Ledwidge believes it is not just Israel that will be looking to learn the lessons of previous urban combat.

Hamas too “will have looked at the vulnerabilities, why it was that ISIS lost or were operationally defeated on the ground”, Mr Ledwidge told The National. One lesson, he said, would be for Hamas fighters to take “no fixed positions”.

“They will have learnt the ineffectiveness of vehicle-born IEDs [improvised explosive devices]. They’re very frightening but the Iraqis worked out ways to deal with them and the Israelis certainly will.

“However, the effectiveness of massive IEDs to neutralise armour and tanks is a lesson to be drawn not only from ISIS but also battles like Fallujah.”

US forces reported finding 26 IED factories in Fallujah, where dozens of American soldiers, hundreds of civilians and thousands of militants were killed during two battles. The hostilities were triggered by the killing and mutilation of four US contractors in early 2004, with Marines eventually entering the city to root out Al Qaeda militants there.

In Mosul it is estimated that more than 10,000 civilians may have died, some of them killed while trying to flee the battle between Iraqi forces and ISIS.

ISIS turned to urban warfare tactics such as “mouseholing”, which involves blowing holes in walls so that fighters can move between buildings unseen from the outside.

US forces spent weeks fighting Iraqi insurgents in Fallujah in one of the bloodiest battles of the Iraq War. Getty
US forces spent weeks fighting Iraqi insurgents in Fallujah in one of the bloodiest battles of the Iraq War. Getty

Lloyd Austin, the US Secretary of Defence, said the battle for Mosul might prove to have been easier than a campaign in Gaza, where he predicted that the Israelis would face “a lot of IEDs, a lot of booby traps”.

Defence analyst Sam Cranny-Evans said it was “easy to draw comparisons” with battles such as Mosul or Raqqa, another ISIS stronghold in Syria that was captured by US-backed forces in 2017.

“The key point really is the Hamas willingness to defend and hold its ground,” he said. “There have been a number of encounters between Israeli forces and Hamas in the past, and Hamas has displayed increasing capabilities over time.”

Hamas has the extra advantage of drones and rocket-launched grenades, making the battle for Gaza “the first war where the insurgents are going to have some significant air power”, Mr Ledwidge said. Hamas is believed to have used drones to sabotage Israeli defences during its attack on October 7.

Carlo Caro, a military analyst, wrote in a commentary for the Henry L Stimson Centre that combatants in urban warfare can find they “win the battle but lose the broader conflict”.

“Battles such as Hue in the Vietnam War and Fallujah in the Iraq War demonstrate that achieving victory in an urban conflict does not necessarily translate to success in the larger war,” he said.

Russia’s siege of Mariupol similarly bogged down its forces and made the city a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, making its eventual capture something of a pyrrhic victory for the Kremlin.

Russia captured Mariupol from Ukraine after a long siege of the Azovstal steelworks. Reuters
Russia captured Mariupol from Ukraine after a long siege of the Azovstal steelworks. Reuters

The warren of tunnels at the Mariupol steelworks are a parallel to the Hamas-built tunnels in Gaza. Israel believes entrances are hidden near schools and hospitals and accounts from hostages say they were held in the underground labyrinth, increasing the dangers to civilians.

Israel told 1.1 million people to leave northern Gaza before it invades, but the order was condemned as impractical and as many as 400,000 people are thought to still be there.

For civilians and local infrastructure, the repercussions of an Israeli assault on Gaza “could be far more catastrophic” than in Fallujah or in Grozny during the Chechen wars, Mr Caro said.

In Fallujah, an initial battle in early 2004 was halted amid pressure on the US to limit harm to civilians. Israel is likewise under immense scrutiny over its actions in Gaza.

Mr Ledwidge said Hamas would try to get invading forces bogged down in another long conflict echoing the bloody battles of recent years.

The "primary worry" for Israel's allies, he said, is "let’s get a plan together we think we can make work, so we don’t get to a point like we did in these other places”.

THE BIO

Mr Al Qassimi is 37 and lives in Dubai
He is a keen drummer and loves gardening
His favourite way to unwind is spending time with his two children and cooking

STAGE 4 RESULTS

1 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 4:51:51

2 David Dekker (NED) Team Jumbo-Visma

3 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 

4 Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis

5 Matteo Moschetti (ITA) Trek-Segafredo

General Classification

1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 12:50:21

2 Adam Yates (GBR) Teamn Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:43

3 Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:03

4 Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:43

5 Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

Tips on buying property during a pandemic

Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.

While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.

While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar. 

Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.

Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.

Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities. 

Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong. 

Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.

MATCH INFO

Liverpool v Manchester City, Sunday, 8.30pm UAE

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

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Updated: October 30, 2023, 10:32 AM