Egypt treads careful middle ground on Russia-Ukraine conflict

Cairo struggles to chart a path that protects its interests as world becomes sharply polarised by Russia-Ukraine war

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi shake hands during a 2021 visit to Russia by the Arab leader. Reuters

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a problem for Egypt’s foreign policy, which is characterised by the pragmatic approach adopted by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and designed to encourage co-operation among the world powers, analysts say.

Egypt under Mr El Sisi, in office since 2014, has maintained its close ties with the US while forging friendly relations with Washington’s rivals Russia and China. He also has established diverse relations with the EU, with deep ties with members Greece, Cyprus, Italy, France and Germany.

But maintaining this middle course may be more difficult going forward given the global polarisation created by the war in Ukraine and the reaction of the US and its European allies, says Gihad Auda, professor of political science at Egypt’s Helwan University.

A monitor displays a projectile striking the regional state administration building in Kharkiv, as the Russian invasion continues. Reuters

People help a wounded woman in the aftermath of Russian shelling in Kharkiv. EPA

Ukrainian emergency service personnel carry the body of a victim following shelling in Kharkiv. AP

Students who fled the conflict rest in a refugee camp in Voluntari, Romania. AP

Members of an Ukrainian civil defence unit pass new assault rifles to the opposite side of a blown-up bridge on Kiev’s northern front. AFP

Civilians cross a river on Kiev's northern front. AFP

A woman takes photos of a destroyed accommodation building near a checkpoint in Brovary, outside Kiev. AP

The city hall of Kharkiv, damaged by Russian shelling. AFP

Debris litters the square outside the damaged Kharkiv city hall. AFP

A Ukrainian woman sleeps on the floor of the railway station in Zahonyi close to the Hungary/Ukraine border. AFP

A medical worker attends to wounded man at a hospital in Brovary, outside Kiev. AP

Refugees from Ukraine in a tent at the Medyka border crossing, Poland. AP

Debris outside the regional administration building, which city officials said was hit by a missile, in Kharkiv. Reuters

A student evacuated from Ukraine is embraced by her family after arriving at Tunis-Carthage International Airport in Tunisia. AFP

Rescuers in a building damaged by a missile in central Kharkiv. Reuters

An ambulance is visible through the damaged window of a vehicle hit by bullets in Kiev, Ukraine. Reuters

Territorial defence members prepare to head out on patrol in Kiev. EPA

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres delivers a speech on screen during the opening of the 49th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland. AP

A policeman detains a young demonstrator during a protest against Russia's attack on Ukraine in St Petersburg, Russia. AP

Local residents in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, prepare Molotov cocktails. Reuters

Residents clean a bomb shelter under an out-of-service cinema in central Zhytomyr. Reuters

Ukrainian volunteers tear cloth into strips to make camouflage nets in Lviv, western Ukraine. AP

Part of the military convoy north-west of Invankiv, Ukraine. AP

Mark Goncharuk, a young boy from Kiev, leaves his father behind as he travels with the rest of his family towards the border. Reuters

People hold an anti-war protest outside the Russian Embassy in Mexico City, Mexico. Reuters

A crater caused by shelling on the outskirts of Kiev. AFP

People queue outside a grocery store in the Ukrainian capital. EPA

Ukrainian soldiers stand at Maidan Nezalezhnosti, or Independence Square, in Kiev. EPA

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation, second left, and Davyd Arakhamia, faction leader of the Servant of the People party in the Ukrainian Parliament, third right, attend the peace talks in the Gomel region of Belarus. AP

People who have fled the Russian invasion in Ukraine, clamour to board a bus bound for a refugee centre established in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

Hanna Pavlovna Lukasz, from Mirhord, Ukraine, said her sons, aged 12 and 8, and her 66-year-old mother had been waiting on the Ukrainian side of the border crossing with Medyka, Poland, for four days. AP

A volunteer from Kiev prepares a rear post with trenches in the city. AFP

A child being treated for cancer rests in the bomb shelter of the oncology ward at a hospital in Kiev. Getty

Police officers check occupants of a suspicious car in Kiev, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Reuters

A woman from Ukraine uses a phone to listen to a speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a refugee shelter in Beregsurany, Hungary. Reuters

Shelves empty of bread after a curfew was lifted as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kiev. Reuters

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, left, and President Zelenskyy. AFP

Snow-covered shoes donated for those fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland. Reuters

People who have fled Ukraine wait for a bus to transport them away from the border crossing in Medyka. Reuters

Norwegian soldiers of the Nato-enhanced forward presence battalion pose at a military plane as they arrive at an airport in Kaunas, Lithuania. AP

A person fleeing Ukraine sits during snowfall at a temporary camp in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters

Footage reportedly of Russian Buk missile system vehicles on a road before a drone strike near Malyn, Ukraine. Reuters

An explosion after what are said to be Russian Buk missile system vehicles on a road are struck by a drone. Reuters

The monument to Russian troops from the Second World War, after the figures’ hands were painted red, at the Red Army memorial in Sofia, Bulgaria. EPA

The Peace Tower on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Canada, is lit up with the colours of Ukraine’s national flag in a show of support. AP

Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the construction site of the National Space Agency on the premises of the Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Centre, in Moscow. EPA

A man looks out from a train, at the railway station in Lviv, Ukraine. The UN has estimated the conflict could produce as many as four million refugees. AP

A Ukrainian boy waits for his mother after passing the border crossing point in Siret, northern Romania. EPA

Russian policemen detain a demonstrator in St Petersburg, during a protest against the country's military actions in Ukraine. EPA

Ukrainian soldiers at a check point in the city of Zhytomyr. Reuters

Residents prepare petrol bombs to defend the city, in Uzhhorod, Ukraine. Reuters

A pro-Russian fighter sits inside a tank in the separatist self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, in the Luhansk region, Ukraine. Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks to Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, second left, and Head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces and First Deputy Defence Minister Valery Gerasimov, left, during their meeting in Moscow. AP

Ukrainians and supporters gather during a demonstration in front of the Greek Parliament in Athens against the Russian military's operation in Ukraine. AFP

Ukrainian Territorial Defence fighters test an automatic grenade launcher taken from a destroyed Russian infantry mobility vehicla after a battle in Kharkiv. AFP

“Technically, if you cannot get wheat or weapons from one source, your money or the money and credit of those helping you can buy them elsewhere,” he said.

“But the problem is not today. It is later when alliances change, new arrangements are in place and we in Egypt need to move from ‘going in between’ to a full balancing act.”

Egypt’s initial reaction to the war in Ukraine was a foreign ministry statement that called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

“The Arab Republic of Egypt follows with serious alarm the rapid developments in Ukraine. It emphasises the importance of dialogue, diplomatic resolutions and efforts aimed at quickly finding a political settlement that will safeguard international security and stability,” the statement said.

But analysts believe Cairo's seemingly neutral and brief response belied its alarm over the consequences of the war on its own interests.

Egypt has been inching closer to Russia in the seven years since Mr El Sisi took office, co-ordinating policy on war-torn Libya, Egypt’s western neighbour with Moscow. Egypt has also supported Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Mr El Sisi has visited Russia at least twice since becoming president.

Significantly, Egypt has been shopping for multibillion-dollar, cutting-edge weapons from Russia, ignoring repeated US threats of punitive actions under a law that prohibits Washington’s allies from buying Russian and Chinese weapons.

Egypt’s most recent purchases included fighter jets and assault helicopters.

The country's vital tourism sector, which has shown signs of recovery after years in the doldrums, heavily depends on tourists from Ukraine and Russia, who flock to its Red Sea beaches throughout the year.

Underlining its wish to continue this trend, Egypt has ordered hotels in popular Red Sea resorts to continue to accommodate tourists from Ukraine unable to return to their country.

Moreover, Egypt relies on Russia and Ukraine for at least 80 per cent of its wheat imports, which stood at a total of about 13 million tonnes last year.

The fallout from the war on Egypt’s wheat imports has already been felt, with Cairo saying it will look for alternative sellers amid rapidly rising prices. The topic has been discussed in top-level meetings headed by Mr El Sisi.

Egypt's Aswan High Dam was built in the 1960s and 1970s with Moscow's technical assistance. Philip Cheung / The National

Cold War legacies

Egypt’s relations with the former Soviet Union date to the 1950s, with Moscow providing Cairo with its first shipments of weapons in a deal that strained relations with Washington at a time when the Cold War was a driving force in global foreign policy.

Later, Moscow provided Cairo with Soviet military advisers as well as technical assistance with milestone development projects such as the Aswan High Dam.

Egypt threw out thousands of Soviet military advisers in 1972, with late president Anwar Sadat claiming that Moscow was not doing enough to equip his army to retake the Sinai Peninsula, which was captured by Israel in 1967. In 1973, Egypt launched a surprise attack to retake Sinai.

Sadat travelled to Israel four years later on a historic visit that initiated a process that produced a US-sponsored peace treaty in 1979. Egypt was rewarded for making peace with Israel with billions of dollars in US economic and military assistance.

Today, Egypt annually receives $1.3 billion in US military aid and the two countries maintain a high level of security co-operation and intelligence-sharing, while relations with Russia are mostly restricted to military-related procurements and plans for Russia to build Egypt’s first nuclear power station.

A Ukrainian tourist, Solomia, at the Egyptian Red Sea resort city of Hurghada, cries over the war in her country. Reuters.

Beyond the impact of the war in Ukraine, the global polarisation shaping up as a result of the conflict is likely to compound the challenges Cairo will face as it tries to chart a middle path.

“The Cold War had ended and the Non-Aligned Movement (Nam) became redundant, but this new crisis offers a chance for the Nam to be revived, albeit with new thinking and dynamics,” said former diplomat Mohamed Anis Salem of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.

Nam was a global coalition of developing countries that sought, with varying success, to stay out of great powers competition that was worsening internal conflict in many parts of the world. Egypt, the former Yugoslavia and Indonesia founded the movement in the 1950s.

“It would not be like fence-sitting, but rather a search for a positive and non-aligned position that advocates a peaceful settlement of the conflict and gives a greater role to the United Nations,” said Mr Salem.

“Without this, we will all lose; and, at the end, neither the United States nor Russia will really benefit if we in Egypt take sides.

“The new Cold War is generating new dynamics towards developing a new Nam.”

For now, the Cairo-headquartered Arab League decided after an emergency meeting on Monday to create a ministerial liaison group to contact stakeholders in the Ukraine conflict.

The meeting, called by Egypt, discussed the conflict’s “direct impact” on Arab states in view of the close relations between Arab states and both Russia and Ukraine, a league statement said.