French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian arrived in Lebanon on Tuesday to meet Lebanese officials as part of an continuing attempt to inject life into the country’s deadlocked Presidential elections.
The two-day trip is the ex-foreign minister's second such visit. A French embassy statement on Monday said it was an attempt to facilitate and mediate between parties “with the aim of creating favourable conditions” towards reaching a consensus on Lebanon’s next president.
“This step is essential for the revival of the political institutions that Lebanon urgently needs to embark on the path of recovery,” the statement said.
In Lebanon, presidents are elected through backdoor negotiations between political parties, with opposing sides attempting to garner enough parliamentary support for either a two-thirds majority vote in the first round or a simple majority in the second.
France is one of the countries in the so-called Quintet Committee, in which representatives of five countries – France, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the US – have come together for talks with the aim of expediting the election of a Lebanese president.
A statement issued by the five-nation group after the last meeting in Doha threatened “measures” against Lebanese parties deemed as “blocking progress” towards electing a president – a veiled reference to the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group and its allies, which is unwavering in its nomination of Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh.
the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris
“I think the main visit of this purpose is to show that France is still committed to promoting inter-Lebanese dialogue and that Le Drian has not given up,” said Karim Bitar, an associate research fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris, noting that the French envoy’s visit is largely exploratory.
And that "even though it is proving to be complicated, France is still committed to trying to bring together the Arab states that are concerned about Lebanon”.
Ultimately, however, “I don’t think this visit by Le Drian will bring the end of the presidential deadlock”.
A source within the Lebanese Forces, which leads the anti-Hezbollah parliamentary block, hailed Mr Le Drian's attempts.
“At least [the French] are showing concern over the Lebanese interests – it’s more than Lebanese parties and MPs are showing,” he told The National.
“We thank him very much for leaving his country to come to help us with something we should be able to do ourselves,” the anonymous source added.
Mr Le Drian previously said that the solution to Lebanon’s leadership vacuum “must come first from the Lebanese".
Although France is no stranger to being involved in Lebanese politics, the task of leading parties towards a presidential consensus is no easy feat.
Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament has failed to elect a president for nearly nine months, despite twelve different attempts to do so. All 12 sessions have ended in a loss of quorum following the first round of voting.
How will France’s efforts be received?
According to Mr Bitar, Le Drian will at best "advance negotiation to explore alternative names”.
But Mr Le Drian has not yet suggested names for nomination or consensus. His first trip to Lebanon in June was largely reserved for meetings with political parties and getting a lay of the land.
Mr Bitar expects Lebanon’s presidential stalemate to last until at least the autumn.
The parliamentary block consisting of Hezbollah and its allies have staunchly backed Marada leader Suleiman Frangieh.
Despite the five-country initiative to close in on a consensus and Mr Le Drian’s visit, the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group and its ally the Amal Movement have shown no signs of shifting on their nomination of Mr Frangieh.
But the bloc simply does not have the Christian backing required to elect Mr Frangieh into office, with its main Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement FPM, straying towards the opposition.
The FPM has joined the largest parliamentary block, led by the Lebanese Forces, in backing ex-finance minister Jihad Azour.
“The FPM is hedging bets, trying to work with both sides,” Mr Bitar said. “They’re trying not to part ways with Hezbollah but they would like to maximise the prize they would get if they ultimately decide to support Suleiman Frangieh.”
While both parliamentary blocs blame their respective rivals for the presidential impasse, “Le Drian’s visit is intended to maintain the pressure on the local Lebanese establishment and keep the momentum going,” Mr Bitar added.
