IMF official Jihad Azour has emerged as the 'convergence' presidential candidate among Lebanon's main Christian parties. AFP
IMF official Jihad Azour has emerged as the 'convergence' presidential candidate among Lebanon's main Christian parties. AFP
IMF official Jihad Azour has emerged as the 'convergence' presidential candidate among Lebanon's main Christian parties. AFP
IMF official Jihad Azour has emerged as the 'convergence' presidential candidate among Lebanon's main Christian parties. AFP

Inside the rare 'convergence' by Lebanon's rival Christian parties over Jihad Azour


Jamie Prentis
  • English
  • Arabic

All concerned insist it is a “convergence”, not an agreement.

Lebanon's largest Christian parties, traditionally rivals, have come together in a rare, informal understanding to vote for International Monetary Fund official Jihad Azour to end a seven-month presidential vacuum.

This coming together of some of the country's largest and oldest Christian parties, as well as Christian and Muslim independents, resulted in key players announcing their backing for Mr Azour before parliament convenes for the 12th time to elect a president on Wednesday.

And while they normally might be at each other's throats in and outside parliament, they hold common ground on one thing – they do not want Suleiman Frangieh, who is supported by Iran-backed armed group and political party Hezbollah and its Shiite ally the Amal Movement, to succeed Michel Aoun as Lebanon's head of state.

“Nobody can succeed alone. So, they had to talk with us. Our political adversaries, who refused to talk, [then] accepted to talk. And on the contrary, they were proactive from their side, addressing us and talking to us,” said Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement Christian party.

“They realised that nothing can be done without us, and we cannot do anything without the others,” he told The National.

The FPM, one Lebanon's largest political parties, is presenting itself as a third bloc, in between a grouping that includes two other Christian parties – the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party – and the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and Amal.

Mr Bassil says his support for Mr Azour did not mean the FPM was entrenched in its position, and that the priority should be on attaining parliamentary consensus.

“It's not an agreement. There was a convergence over the name of Mr Azour,” said a source from the LF, parliament's largest party and historically an opponent of the FPM.

“We don't have an agreement, because an agreement would be based on a working plan,” the source said, adding that the only agreement the sides had was on the phrase “convergence”.

Samy Gemayel, the leader of the Kataeb Party, which typically aligns with the LF, and a strident critic of Hezbollah, said: “It doesn't mean that this is an alliance. We are not on the same page politically with [the FPM] and I don't think in the near future we will be.

“But on the presidential issue, they found a common interest in joining the opposition to block Frangieh and we are happy to see this. And this is weakening Hezbollah,” he said.

However, this rare understanding between the FPM and LF, the two largest parties in parliament, is unlikely to get Mr Azour enough votes to be elected in the first round of voting on Wednesday.

But it redraws the battle lines in the presidential race in Lebanon's bitterly divided legislature, where no side holds a majority.

Michel Moawad won about a third of votes in previous electoral sessions, through support from opponents of Hezbollah and a handful of independents. He withdrew in favour of Mr Azour last Sunday.

The support for Mr Azour followed months of negotiations behind the scenes over a possible new name.

“It was not easy. Getting parties, groups and MPs that are in total opposition to each for years to agree on one candidate is not an easy task,” said Mr Gemayel.

“So, you have to do all the mediation to make sure that everyone understands that there's a common interest here.”

Although extended presidential vacuums are not uncommon in Lebanon, the latest one comes with the country in a precarious state, entrenched in an economic crisis that has been described as one of the worst in modern history.

It was two and a half years before Mr Aoun, the FPM's founder and a former army general, was elected to the post in 2016 with the backing of Hezbollah, his party's traditional ally, and after reaching an agreement with traditional foes including LF leader Samir Geagea – an opponent in the 1975-1990 civil war.

The LF increased its share of seats in elections last year while the FPM lost seats, but no bloc holds a majority in parliament.

The presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon's confessional political system, which also reserves half of the seats of the 128-seat legislature for Christians.

Some see the Christian “convergence” as an indicator that the FPM-Hezbollah relationship is not as strong as it once was.

But Mr Bassil believes the FPM's support for Mr Azour, rather than Hezbollah's choice of Mr Frangieh, will not damage the relationship.

“I don't think it should, because they did this first. They had their choice for the president, regardless of our known position of refusing it. And still with that, they kept supporting him, knowing that we are a big bloc of the Christian community and their choice was for the small one,” said Mr Bassil, referring to the fact that hardly any Christian MPs are expected to vote for Mr Frangieh next Wednesday.

“They did not respect our sensitivity and they went with that choice. And despite this, we didn't say 'we break with [Hezbollah], we don't talk to them'.”

Mr Gemayel claimed that while the FPM and opposition blocs agreed on Mr Azour, their motivations were different.

“It's not us who went to Hezbollah, [Mr Bassil] defected from Hezbollah. I think that the main reason was that there is a jealousy between the two persons, between him and the candidate of Hezbollah. He didn't agree with Hezbollah on the nomination of Suleiman Frangieh.

“We are blocking Frangieh because of his political position. He is blocking Frangieh from a personal or partisan perspective. But it doesn't change anything for us as long as he is taking a stand, as long as he is accepting a candidate that is accepted by us. Why not?”

Mr Frangieh, the scion of a north Lebanon political dynasty, has long had good ties with Hezbollah and is childhood friends with Syria's Bashar Al Assad.

The LF source said that many uncertainties remained and repeated that Mr Azour had not been the party's first choice, but insisted that the IMF official was “a million times” better than Mr Frangieh.

“Now, of course, we still favour Michel Moawad, Dr Samir Geagea, Samy Gemayel, anyone within this camp. But we are pragmatic enough to know that right now, the only thing that will help us break this deadlock that was imposed on the Lebanese people [is] going to be a candidate who can represent a common space for several groups.”

The pro-Azour bloc insist his nomination was not “confrontational”, even if representatives of Hezbollah have described him as such and insisted he will not become president.

“We refused all the names that are considered confrontational or provocative by [Parliament Speaker and Amal Movement leader] Nabih Berri's side, Hezbollah's side, Frangieh's side, etc,” said Mr Bassil.

Mr Gemayel concurred that Mr Azour should not be seen as a confrontation candidate.

“Whoever we would have nominated, the reaction would have been the same.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Updated: June 12, 2023, 7:24 AM