On September 12, 2002 US president George W Bush addressed the United Nations General Assembly where he outlined how the US could radically re-shape the Middle East, based on democratic values.
Mr Bush's speech initially focused on the “war on terror” and efforts to combat poverty, but much of his address made a case for action against Iraq, describing how the US believed Saddam was making strides towards developing weapons of mass destruction and collaborating with terrorist groups.
Implying the US would rally nations to use “decisive force”, Mr Bush said the “United States would support political and economic liberty in a unified Iraq”.
However, US efforts to support this “political and economic liberty” were doomed to fail, according to veterans of the war who spoke to The National. Meetings held since August to discuss action in Iraq were dominated by military planning rather than ways to rebuild and stabilise the country, they said.
A week before Mr Bush's UN speech, top US General Tommy Franks held one of many meetings with Mr Bush and the US National Security Council. The man charged with planning the invasion was reportedly asked by the president, “can we win this thing?”
“Of course,” Gen Franks replied.
Militarily, it was a fair assumption — the US assessed that the Iraqi army had little will to fight and was on the edge of collapse, recovering from decades of conflict and tough sanctions.
Through August, military planning assumptions had been made, including that the “Iraqi regime has WMD capability”, that regional states would not “oppose the US with conventional forces” and that “opposition groups will work with us”.
These “key planning assumptions”, listed on a PowerPoint slide of the same name, illustrate the focus on military operations rather than post conflict events — what the military sometimes refers to as Phase IV operations.
“False and bad assumptions lead to a flawed plan and lead to a lack of strategy for phase four,” retired Lt Gen Michael Barbero told The National.
Lt Gen Barbero was the assistant division commander to the US 4th infantry division in 2003 and went on to lead the training effort for the Iraqi army between 2009 and 2011.
Planning was based on a conventional fight into Baghdad, with very little if any discussion of a phase four, or a postwar insurgency
Lt Gen (Ret) Michael D Barbero
But after the invasion, not all “opposition groups” worked with the US — Iraq’s Shiite nationalist Sadrist movement, for example, fought a bloody insurgency against the US-led coalition, helping to turn southern Iraq into a quagmire of violence.
Mainstream political parties in the new Iraq also received backing from businessmen and organisations hostile to the US.
Likewise, while regional states may not have opposed the US with “conventional forces” — as predicted — insurgents and funding for them flooded into Iraq from countries such as Iran and Syria.
Failed reconstruction
Most historians agree that reconstruction planning was sidelined by Mr Bush's secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld, who failed to foresee insurgency and civil war that would lead to hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths.
“I'm not sure Rumsfeld paid any attention to any warnings about the war. He was nitpicking at all the details and going through deployment orders, for example. He missed the forest for the trees,” says Joel Wing, a researcher who has interviewed more than 100 key figures involved in the conflict.
Mr Wing says Rumsfeld overlooked growing concern in parts of the US government that the war could be a disaster.
“The Bush administration denied planners [of all agencies] the opportunity to plan for Phase IV because it would have gone contrary to their promises of a quick war and exit,” says retired Lt Col Craig Whiteside, whose battalion was deployed in Babil, a province that was torn by sectarian violence.
“Both were delusional predictions, but the politics prevented them from allowing the planning. I’ve had senior diplomats tell me this — [the] State [Department] was completely cut out and deemed untrustworthy messengers of a quick and easy war.”
The perfect storm
Despite being sidelined from the planning, the State Department was making its own assessments, including a chilling July 2002 report that warned of “a horrible wave of bloodletting,” as those oppressed by Saddam sought revenge, and that a new Iraqi army and US forces could be powerless to stop the violence.
The report, titled “The Perfect Storm”, also warned that a large US force would be needed if chaos took hold.
But Rumsfeld spent 2002 pressing Gen Franks to use as few US troops as possible, at one point suggesting Saddam could be toppled with just 5,000 troops.
For Rumsfeld, removing Saddam was a “hard power” problem and would not entail what the Bush administration derisively called “nation building”.
A small invasion force “would have risked having American units wiped out by capable Iraqi forces. Mass has always been a principle of war. Rumsfeld had no military training and is lucky his military officers pushed back on a delusional plan,” Lt Col Whiteside says.
“But even then, we had far from enough forces.”
Initial US plans in mid-2002 envisaged just two to three months of “stabilising” Iraq in the Phase IV part of the campaign.
But Rumsfeld was assured the military outcome was not in question. That was also the view of Ismael Alsodani, an Iraqi regimental commander in Kirkuk in September 2002.
“For military units, we were operating at almost 50 per cent of our capability, in terms of equipment, personnel and logistics. So the army itself was not prepared well for this war. We were looking at maybe Saddam having some reserves like the Republican Guards,” he says, referring to what historians say were the country’s best soldiers.
“But we can't compare Iraqi military capabilities with the coalition capabilities, because we had a very bitter experience during the first Gulf War in Kuwait,” he says.
The lopsided, US-led victory in the 1991 conflict shaped Rumsfeld’s view of overwhelming US power which could reshape nations, what he called a “military-technological revolution in warfare”.
Lt Gen Barbero has clear memories of detailed discussions on force levels during briefings in 2002, where he says planning was “based on a conventional fight into Baghdad, with very little if any discussion of a phase four, or a postwar insurgency. You had these competing personalities and all these different competing factions in Washington.”
He says Rumsfeld continually rejected higher troop numbers that were desperately needed to protect vital infrastructure from looters and insurgents, as well as to protect their own forces.
“He didn't want to do it, even into 2006, he still didn't want to send more forces in there. So that was his ‘going in’ position. And he was very turf conscious. So a lot of that had to do with the personalities involved. His being, I think, the strongest one, which was totally counterproductive.”
Bad intelligence
Ominously, Gen Franks remarked in his September 6 meeting with Bush that the US military had little intelligence on where Iraqi Scud missiles were — weapons that the US wrongly assumed could be fitted with WMDs.
This lack of information pointed to a deeper problem, a lack of reliable “human intelligence”, or humint in military jargon, something Lt Gen Barbero blames on “an over-reliance on expats”, in the Iraqi opposition who were involved in plans — and promises — about a stable postwar Iraq.
This, he says, falls under “intelligence preparation of the battlefield”, a vital step in successful planning.
Beyond the military PowerPoint briefings through 2002, there had long been warnings of what lay in wait if Saddam was removed.
Alarms were raised by the 1999 Desert Crossing war games — military and civilian exercises looking at what would happen in the event of regime change.
The exercises warned that “US involvement in Iraq may lead Iran to prevent the establishment of a ‘hostile’ government”. In the event, Tehran did back militias that were responsible for the deaths of at least 600 US soldiers and injuries to thousands, as well as groups opposed to Iraqi democracy.
Desert Crossing also warned of “aggressive neighbours, fragmentation along ethnic and religious lines and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power”, all of which came to pass as US-led forces found themselves in the middle of a civil war.
Cultural differences
“They didn't know about Shia or Sunni. They have an idea about Iraq. They know Babylon. They know the Euphrates. They know Baghdad, they know Saddam Hussein. But their mission is to destroy their enemy,” says Kadhim Al Waeli, an Iraqi who assisted the US 101st Airborne Division as they took control of his home town, Najaf.
Mr Al Waeli, part of an Iraqi auxiliary force known as the Free Iraqi Forces, was described by his colleague, Col Chris Hughes, as his most vital resource during the invasion, when Americans soon found themselves confronted with a complex society, factionalised by decades of conflict and oppression.
As US forces battled Baathists in Najaf, Mr Al Waeli was quick to point out to Col Hughes the value of not damaging holy sites and holding fire during the call to prayer, and became his key interlocutor.
Their work together would later be used as a case study in a US military training manual.
But despite the initial success of US forces in building local allies in Najaf — something that was also briefly achieved in Mosul — Mr Al Waeli said the US was not prepared for how hostile Iraqi society had become after 35 years of dictatorship.
There was “a propaganda campaign against America and the West. For Iran, the Great Satan. The Baathists looked to America as the imperialist, and everyone thinks ‘America well, they they're here to change our culture, our religion.' And that's the resistance starting from the Shia side.
“Of course, the Sunnis resisted because they lost power,” he adds.
“Hope started fading away,” Mr Al Sodani says, after Saddam's fall.
“We were hoping the Americans could rebuild the country and change the mentality of Iraqis to accept democracy, because we had been under Saddam for almost three decades,” he says.
But this would not come to pass. “The Americans built their strategy on misinformation, or on information from people who haven't been to Iraq.”
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
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BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Villains
Queens of the Stone Age
Matador
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR
US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.
KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.
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Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
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Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
More on Quran memorisation:
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHakbah%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENaif%20AbuSaida%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E22%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-Series%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%20and%20Aditum%20Investment%20Management%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman
Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 306hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
Champion%20v%20Champion%20(PFL%20v%20Bellator)
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%3A%20Renan%20Ferreira%20v%20Ryan%20Bader%20%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%3A%20Impa%20Kasanganay%20v%20Johnny%20Eblen%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Jesus%20Pinedo%20v%20Patricio%20Pitbull%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%3A%20Ray%20Cooper%20III%20v%20Jason%20Jackson%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShowcase%20Bouts%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHeavyweight%3A%20Bruno%20Cappelozza%20(former%20PFL%20World%20champ)%20v%20Vadim%20Nemkov%20(former%20Bellator%20champ)%3Cbr%3ELight%20Heavyweight%3A%20Thiago%20Santos%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20Yoel%20Romero%20(Bellator%20title%20contender)%3Cbr%3ELightweight%3A%20Clay%20Collard%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20AJ%20McKee%20(former%20Bellator%20champ)%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Gabriel%20Braga%20(PFL%20title%20contender)%20v%20Aaron%20Pico%20(Bellator%20title%20contender)%3Cbr%3ELightweight%3A%20Biaggio%20Ali%20Walsh%20(pro%20debut)%20v%20Emmanuel%20Palacios%20(pro%20debut)%3Cbr%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20Lightweight%3A%20Claressa%20Shields%20v%20Kelsey%20DeSantis%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%3A%20Abdullah%20Al%20Qahtani%20v%20Edukondal%20Rao%3Cbr%3EAmateur%20Flyweight%3A%20Malik%20Basahel%20v%20Vinicius%20Pereira%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Star%20Wars%3A%20Ahsoka%20
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The Case For Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson