Parkinson’s disease cases forecast to top 25 million worldwide by 2050

Middle East and North Africa predicted to see the highest increase across all age groups

An MRI scan of a brain showing Parkinson's disease, which is increasing rapidly across the globe. Getty Images

The number of people living with Parkinson’s disease worldwide could more than double by 2050 to more than 25 million, a study suggests.

The predicted rise is largely down to an ageing and growing population, researchers said.

Researchers said people getting older “was estimated to be the leading contributor” to rising cases. The projections “can be used to plan control measures and call for urgent action in meeting the increasing healthcare demands of patients” with the illness, they added.

Parkinson’s is a progressive condition that affects the brain.

Symptoms include involuntary shaking known as tremors, slow movement and stiff muscles, as well as psychological problems like depression, loss of balance, trouble sleeping and memory issues.

A modelling study led by academics in Beijing used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease from 2022 to 2050 in 195 countries.

The findings, published in The BMJ, suggest the number of people living with the condition would be 15.6 million in 2030, 20.4 million in 2040 and 25.2 million by 2050, a 112 per cent increase compared to 2021.

The prevalence of Parkinson’s was forecast to be highest in Spain, China and Andorra while Somalia, Niger and Chad are expected to have the lowest number of cases.

Qatar (1,062 per cent) and Kuwait (425 per cent) were projected to have the highest increase in prevalence, while Italy (3 per cent) and Bulgaria (7 per cent) were forecast to have the lowest.

The region with the highest increase across all age groups is expected to be the Middle East and North Africa (145 per cent), which was also highest for the increase in cases attributed to population (197 per cent), with the lowest being the Asia Pacific region (43 per cent).

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The World Health Organisation has estimated that neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s will become the second leading cause of death worldwide by 2040, surpassing cancer.

Researchers said the increase could be attributed to modifications in lifestyles, environmental factors and healthcare provision resulting from industrialisation, urbanisation and socioeconomic advancement, which all lead to an ageing population.

“By 2050 Parkinson’s disease will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, caregivers, communities and society,” researchers said.

The team said the upwards trend was more pronounced “in men, in East Asia and in countries with middle socio-demographic index”, which is a scale that measures a country’s level of development based on factors such as average income, education and fertility rate.

Academics suggested “public health interventions” could help slow the “universal rise” in cases.

“Given the inevitable population ageing, population growth and disability experienced by individuals with Parkinson’s disease owing to its chronic nature, an urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” they said.

David Dexter, director of research at Parkinson’s UK, said: “This very welcome study reminds us that Parkinson’s is growing quickly across the world.

“Until we find a cure, it’s vital that people with Parkinson’s, regardless of their location, socioeconomic group or race, have access to research opportunities, good quality care and support that enables them to live well with the condition.”

Researchers said previous investigations have focused on the future prevalence of Parkinson’s disease in the US and Europe, meaning that forecasts for other countries and continents are lacking.

They said to effectively target prevention and intervention, a comprehensive forecast at global, regional and national level by socioeconomic status, age and sex was needed.