Top Fed official says AI’s short-term potential is overhyped and warns of wide-scale risks

Fed vice chairman for supervision Michael Barr says attributes that make GenAI attractive also pose risks to financial system

The US Federal Reserve vice chairman for supervision, Michael Barr. EPA

A senior US Federal Reserve official on Wednesday warned that some of the attributes that make generative artificial intelligence attractive also pose risks to the financial system, including market manipulation.

The Fed's vice chairman for supervision, Michael Barr, said the popularity of generative AI could result in “herding behaviour” that could increase market volatility.

“Speed, automaticity and ubiquity could generate new risks at wide scale,” Mr Barr said at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “As GenAI agents will be directed to maximise profit, they may converge on strategies to maximise returns through co-ordinated market manipulation, potentially fuelling asset bubbles and crashes.”

He also suggested regulators should monitor GenAI's effects on economic and political institutions, as it could concentrate power “in the hands of the very few and could lead to the gains being realised only by a small group, while the rest are left behind”.

The advanced technology could also entice non-banks to “be more nimble and risk-forward”, potentially pushing them into less-regulated territory.

Mr Barr played down the near-term potential gains of GenAI as “overhyped” in warning that failure for the new technology to achieve those breakthroughs could lead to a market correction.

AI gains have fuelled a bull run on Wall Street, with money pouring in to the Magnificent 7, the group of big tech firms that investors are hoping will deliver significant advances in artificial intelligence.

Conversely, Mr Barr suggested that the longer-term view of AI is “under-appreciated”.

One of the biggest questions surrounding AI is its impact on the labour market. An analysis from the International Monetary Fund reports that 40 per cent of global employment is exposed to AI risk.

When pressed on AI's effects on global employment, Mr Barr said history shows the labour market adjusts to new technology. "But it is a very painful adjustment,” he said.

Barr defends stepping down

Mr Barr also defended his decision to step down from his role as vice chairman for supervision, the Fed's bank regulator role.

He announced his decision last month after President Donald Trump threatened to sack him. Mr Barr at the time maintained the President did not have the legal authority to fire him, but said he wanted to avoid the distraction a prolonged legal battle would bring.

“That distraction would have prevented us from doing our job … and to me, it wasn't worth it, so I decided to step down from the vice chair role,” Mr Barr said.

There are fears that Mr Trump would try to impose his will on the Federal Reserve, which has independence from the political trappings of Washington. Fed chairman Jerome Powell has maintained that Mr Trump will have no say on the central bank's monetary policy decisions and that he does not have the authority to fire him.

Mr Barr will retain his role as a governor on the Federal Reserve Board. His term expires in 2032.