Damascus faces a new spring of challenges


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When protesters chanting "No more fear!" marched through the streets of Deraa last week, it signalled the most direct challenge to the Syrian regime in decades.

Years of strongman rule, sanctioned by an emergency law and enforced by the state security apparatus, created an atmosphere of repression that has haunted Syrians for decades. Indeed, the economic, social and political reforms that were openly debated in salons and forums during the so-called "Damascus Spring" after Hafiz al Assad's death 10 years ago have yet to blossom. Instead, corruption continues to flourish, thousands of political prisoners remain behind bars, and Syria is no closer to satisfying the demands of its people.

But while quashing dissent remains the first option of an increasingly anxious regime, the fear barrier has been broken. Long-held Kurdish grievances and protests led by young people, inspired by Egypt and Tunisia, sparked a renewed round of demonstrations this month. Pro-democracy graffiti, chants against the Baath party and marches across the country have marked a new era of confrontation between Syria's population and the Assad leadership.

And yet, rather than promise to speed up the reforms he has long trumpeted, President Bashar al Assad has fallen back on the same repressive tactics that kept his father in power. Arguing that "we will have to wait for the next generation to bring reform", Mr Assad seems to think that change can come slowly.

Some Syrians agree, worrying the country risks fatal instability. "We do not want another Iraq" was a sentiment echoed in the streets of Damascus on Friday. It's the same bogeyman the regime has paraded during times of upheaval, and for a good reason - it still holds sway amon some.

Increasingly, however, it seems that Mr Assad and the ruling Baath party have little choice but to change, and fast. Isolated by sanctions and closed off to much of the world, Syria's population is acutely aware of what has passed them by. Inspired by ongoing protests in the region, the thread of discontent continues to tighten its grip on the country.

Indeed, lying amid the torched remains of a Baath party office in Deraa is the party's slogan: "God, Syria, Bashar - that's it." As protesters marched through Damascus last week, they claimed the phrase as their own, sending a clear message to the regime: "God, Syria, freedom - that's it."

THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC

Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Countries recognising Palestine

France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra

 

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

The five pillars of Islam