Climate change tripled the number of heat-related deaths across European cities in the recent heatwaves, a rapid analysis by scientists has estimated.
Global warming, caused primarily by humans burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests, made the searing heat that gripped much of Europe in late June and early July much more intense, researchers found.
The heatwaves were up to 4ºC hotter across cities compared to a world without climate change, the study from the World Weather Attribution group of researchers said.
And in the first rapid study to estimate the number of deaths linked to climate change in a heatwave, researchers found human-driven global warming was responsible for around 65 per cent of the deaths that occurred across 12 cities, including London, Paris, Madrid, Barcelona and Rome.
The scientists behind the study said that heatwaves were “quietly devastating” and their research showed how dangerous climate change already was with just 1.3ºC of warming, particularly for older and more vulnerable people.
They also said that their analysis focused on 12 cities, providing only a snapshot of the deaths linked to climate change-driven high temperatures across Europe, which may have reached into the tens of thousands.
The assessment focused on 10 days of heat from June 23 to July 2, when a “heat dome” high pressure system over Europe trapped hot dry air and pushed up temperatures, as well as pulling hot air from North Africa, intensifying the heatwave.
The searing temperatures led schools to close in parts of France, outdoor working to be banned during the hottest parts of the day in Italy, raised the risk of wildfires, and triggered health alerts across many countries, including a red alert for Paris and amber alerts for London and many parts of England.
The researchers used weather data to assess the intensity of the heatwaves over their hottest five-day period in a world which has seen 1.3ºC of warming and compared it the cooler pre-industrial climate.
The scientists also used existing research on the relationship between heat and the number of daily deaths in the cities to estimate the number of excess deaths due to the heatwaves and compared it to a “counterfactual” of the numbers of deaths in heatwave temperatures without climate change.
The study, led by scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), found around 1,500 of the 2,300 estimated heat deaths were the result of climate change – equating to a tripling of the number of deaths in the heatwave due to global warming.
Climate change was responsible for an estimated 171 excess deaths in London, 317 in Madrid and 235 in Paris, the study found.
Most of the deaths were in older age groups, the researchers said, highlighting the growing risk older people in Europe face from dying prematurely due to longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves.
Dr Ben Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: “Heatwaves don’t leave a trail of destruction like wildfires or storms.
“Their impacts are mostly invisible, but quietly devastating – a change of just 2 or 3C can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people.
“Our study shows how dangerous climate change already is with just 1.3C of warming.
“However, we could reach 3C this century, unless countries speed up the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
“That would bring fiercer heatwaves to Europe, causing more deaths and placing greater pressure on health systems.”
Dr Pierre Masselot, research fellow at LSHTM, said: “At the rate the world is warming, heatwaves are not going away and we have to prepare for their public health impacts.
“Cities can adapt by planting trees, reducing the space given to cars and caring for the most vulnerable.
“But ultimately, the best way to avoid dire consequences is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gases emissions.”
And Dr Friederike Otto, professor in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial, said: “This study highlights a simple fact: burning more oil, coal and gas will kill more people.
“The only way to stop European heatwaves from becoming even deadlier is to stop burning fossil fuels,” she warned.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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