Business

Swallows not out yet for Arabtec summer

What's Down: Much like the sight of one swallow doesn't make an English summer, a good last quarter has failed to convince analysts there are more rewards to come at Arabtec.

Laura Miller

March 28, 2012

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Much as one swallow does not a summer make, a good last quarter has failed to convince analysts there are more rewards to come at Arabtec.

The company reported it had a buoyant end to last year. Net profit of Dh165 million beat consensus expectations and those of several separate analysts by a significant margin. Bottom line for the quarter showed substantial growth compared with the two previous quarters.

However, even a 16.1 per cent margin on fourth-quarter pre-tax earnings, the highest since the same period in 2009 and the second-highest in the company's history as a listed entity, has failed to entice analysts.

At least two firms, Beltone Financial and NBK Capital, have downgraded the stock to "sell".

The concern is that the results were flattered by variation orders - changes made by architects in the construction of buildings - and lower provisioning for bad debts.

NBK goes so far as to say the figures from the final three months of last year "should not be seen as a harbinger" for coming quarters".

But prospects for Arabtec do look to be brightening. The company is working on all of its current contracts, including a 5,000-villa contract in Saudi Arabia, which had been stalled for almost a year. Saudi Arabia is the company's second-largest market.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the company's main market, are also experiencing a pickup in sentiment this year.

NBK notes several large new awards could be announced in coming months - and that is what investors hope for after Aabar bought a 5.28 per cent stake in the company.

But it is difficult to assess this potential as there is no indication of when these contracts will be awarded or how much they might be worth.

Until there is some clarity, Arabtec looks overvalued. NBK thinks Arabtec's recent huge share price rise - the stock is up nearly 80 per cent this year - is being driven largely by speculation.

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