Scottish independence movement goes beyond the economics of oil

Since my fellow columnist Robin Mills did such an eloquent job of demolishing the economic case for Scottish independence a couple of days ago, especially with regard to the crucial oil sector, I think it’s time somebody put the business case for a “Yes” vote in tomorrow’s referendum. So here goes.

I come to this important subject not as a Scot, but with an Irish background and citizenship that has coloured my view on the matter irrevocably.

Some commentators have used the Irish economic experience since 1922 as a stick to beat the Scottish nationalists, and it’s true that for most of the 20th century the Irish economy performed so miserably that many of the country’s citizens chose to emigrate to Britain (like my parents) or elsewhere.

It is the ultimate failure of an economic administration when it cannot provide the basic means of livelihood for your people, and on this measure – until the Celtic Tiger began to roar in the 1990s – Irish independence was largely an economic failure.

The Tiger years ended in collapse and bailout by EU and global “friends”, of course, but Ireland is now a modern economy, attracting investment from some of the biggest names in global business and exporting for all it is worth. I’m convinced, and most of the economists agree, that the recovery will be sustained, if painfully gradual.

But how much different would Ireland’s economy have been in the 20th century if the state had not been born in such chaotic and violent circumstances? A war against the British was followed by civil war, the great global depression then the Second World War, all of which retarded the Irish economy.

Irish economic policymakers were simply not up to dealing with those enormous problems.

Scotland’s situation now is vastly different. The referendum is a voluntary and democratic process, and the British have agreed to abide by its decision (as they failed to do in Ireland). So there is no likelihood of conflict – military or economic – handicapping an independent Scotland from the start.

If they go for it, Scotland has a much better chance than Ireland of making an independent economy work.

Although UK business has largely come out against independence, there are many good reasons why an independent country, as explained by the lobbying group Business for Scotland, would have a vibrant, wealthy economy: it is already diverse and expanding, and generates huge wealth for the UK in taxes; its public finances, as you’d expect from the canny Scottish Nationalist administration, are in better shape than those of the UK as a whole.

Scotland has strong exports, especially in food and drink, most of which goes outside the UK; it could be a focus for foreign investment (like Ireland); and it already has in place a corps of economically astute policymakers to oversee the transition to independence.

On the oil issue, I bow to Robin Mills, but make this point: much of Scotland’s energy resources has been squandered over the decades by Westminster politicians to maintain English standards of social services, and on costly foreign military ventures.

If Scotland had control of its own oil from the start, it might be in a similar position to Norway (with roughly the same size population, although smaller energy reserves), with a sovereign wealth fund running into the hundreds of billions.

International comparisons, in my view, make the case for independence even stronger. I fail to understand the EU, which welcomed with open arms, for example, the Baltic states, but says Scotland cannot join.

The population of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania combined is only a tiny bit bigger than Scotland’s, and combined GDP is less than half Scotland’s estimated US$250 billion.

On the independent currency and the refusal of Westminster to allow an independent Scotland to use the pound, I can only believe it is a gigantic bluff by London, and one which they will quickly rescind. If they don’t, there are plenty of alternatives for a nimble-thinking and financial astute people such as the Scots.

In the end, though, the economics and finances are secondary. Will the majority of Scots vote to take back responsibility for the running of their country and the lives of future generations?

If they say yes, I believe they will have earned their freedom.

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