Have some home buyers been priced out of Dubai property market?

Potential first-time buyers are more cautious and others more pragmatic, experts say

Beachfront villas in the Palm Jumeirah, Dubai. Property values have increased across popular central locations. AFP

With UAE property values increasing steadily over the past five years, some more cost-sensitive buyers have been priced out of the market, say industry experts.

For others, the consistent rise in property prices has meant recalibrating their home aspirations, says Matthew Green, head of research at property consultancy CBRE Mena.

“Many end users have been forced to consider more secondary and tertiary locations towards the Al Qudra corridor and along the E611, and even further afield, as values have increased across popular central locations like [Dubai's] Downtown, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Park and Jumeirah Living,” he adds.

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John Lyons, managing director of Espace Real Estate, says some mid-income professionals, particularly potential first-time buyers, are more cautious and are carefully weighing up whether to rent or buy. However, there are no widespread delays or any “meaningful withdrawal” from the market, he adds.

Many buyers who waited for a price correction over the past couple of years found themselves priced out of preferred locations. As a result, buyers are now more pragmatic and less focused on timing the market than on securing the right property, particularly when it suits their lifestyle and long-term plans, Mr Lyons says.

Rather than delaying ownership, there is greater participation from mid-income professionals, driven primarily by rising rents and improved access to off-plan housing, according to Farooq Syed, chief executive of Springfield Properties.

“Extended payment plans, lower initial capital requirements and improved mortgage availability have made ownership more achievable for salaried households, particularly as rental renewals continue to place pressure on monthly budgets,” he says.

Price correction on the cards?

Overall property prices in Dubai have risen close to 13 per cent in the 12 months to the end of the third quarter of 2025, while quarter-on-quarter they rose around 3 per cent, data from CBRE shows.

While value growth has slowed from its highs over the past two years, supply is still not sufficient to help fully balance dynamics, with around 35,000 units completed across 2025, Mr Green estimates.

However, during 2026 and 2027, deliveries are likely to jump, with more than 70,000 units per year anticipated, which should help to keep a lid on price increases, he says.

Dubai’s residential market is expected to slow down in 2026, according to property consultancy ValuStrat real estate research team. This reflects a deceleration rather than a sharp correction, supported by strong population growth and sustained end-user demand, research shows.

Supply is still not sufficient to help fully balance dynamics

Matthew Green,
head of research, CBRE Mena

Affordability constraints and the impact of new supply are expected to limit price rises, particularly in communities with a high volume of scheduled handovers. Overall, the market is likely to experience stable growth, with moderate increases in sales prices and rents, the consultancy forecasts.

“A broad-based price correction across the Dubai market seems unlikely,” Mr Lyons says. “However, there is a distinction between market segments.

“In certain off-plan projects, particularly where higher and more speculative price per square foot levels were paid, and where buyers intended to exit either shortly before or around handover, liquidity may be tighter. In specific locations or developments, this could lead to mild, short-term price pressure.

“In contrast, the secondary market, particularly villas and town houses, remains structurally undersupplied, with a limited future supply pipeline. This segment continues to be driven by end-user families with a long-term mindset.

“Secondary apartment pricing has risen more modestly in recent years and remains tangible on a price per square foot basis, which should limit downside risk.”

Who’s buying?

The UAE’s residential market has a broad and increasingly balanced buyer base, typically aged between the early thirties and mid-forties, comprising resident expatriates, international buyers and investors, and Emiratis, Mr Syed says.

International and non-resident buyers remain an important source of capital, particularly in the prime and off-plan segments, attracted by the UAE’s long-term residency options such as the Golden Visa, and relative value compared with other global cities, he says.

“At the same time, resident expatriates now represent a growing share of end-user demand. Policy measures, including first-time buyer initiatives, improved mortgage accessibility and long-term visa frameworks, have broadened ownership among salaried professionals and dual-income households,” Mr Syed adds.

“Emiratis continue to participate through a combination of private market purchases and emirate-level housing programmes.”

Overall, demand today is more end-user-led and structurally resilient than in previous cycles, he adds.

Mr Lyons cites strong demand from high-earning expats and dual-income professional households, alongside a “healthy mix” of wealthy cash buyers and overseas investors. The average buyer is often well established in their career or business, he says.

What has changed compared to previous cycles is intent. Many buyers are purchasing with a longer-term mindset, either as end users or as part of a wider wealth strategy. While speculative investors with a shorter-term horizons still exist, they represent a relatively small segment of the market, he says.

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Are people moving to Northern Emirates?

More cost-sensitive residents have been faced with a choice to move to new emerging communities on the outer limits of Dubai, or even to shift to other emirates in search of better housing affordability, according to CBRE’s Mr Green.

While rents remain lower in the Northern Emirates, all markets have seen aggressive increases in the cost of living, over the past three years in particular. However, with supply levels rising sharply in the coming years, those pressures should slowly start to ease, he reckons.

“Sharjah and Ajman tend to appeal to commuters seeking value, while Ras Al Khaimah is attracting buyers looking for space, lifestyle and longer-term growth potential,” Mr Lyons says.

“However, Dubai continues to retain the majority of demand due to its employment opportunities, schooling, infrastructure and overall lifestyle offering. As prices have risen, many residents choose to remain within Dubai and adjust location or property type rather than relocate entirely.”