The Palm Jumeirah. Dubai's prime property prices have surged this year. Bloomberg
The Palm Jumeirah. Dubai's prime property prices have surged this year. Bloomberg
The Palm Jumeirah. Dubai's prime property prices have surged this year. Bloomberg
The Palm Jumeirah. Dubai's prime property prices have surged this year. Bloomberg

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Property

Dubai prime property market set for world's strongest growth in 2023

Prices across Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and Jumeirah Bay Island are predicted to rise by another 13.5 per cent next year

Ian Oxborrow
Ian Oxborrow

November 29, 2022

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Dubai's prime residential market is set for the world's strongest growth next year, according to a new report.

Across the 25 cities tracked, property consultancy Knight Frank expects prime residential prices to rise by 2 per cent on average in 2023, down from 2.7 per cent predicted six months ago.

It predicts Dubai to lead the way with a 13.5 per cent rise in prime prices, ahead of the likes of Miami (5 per cent), Los Angeles (4 per cent) and Paris (4 per cent).

“Dubai’s prime residential market has and continues to be a global outlier, with record price growth in 2022, albeit this has been from a low base,” said Faisal Durrani, partner — head of Middle East research at Knight Frank.

“Prime values are being fuelled by Dubai’s safe-haven status, an exceptionally diverse range of international ultra-high-net-worth individuals in search of luxury second homes, combined of course with the government’s world-leading response to the pandemic, which has spurred business confidence.”

He added that Dubai is one of the most “affordable” luxury residential markets in the world, with prices trailing the 2014 peak levels by 21.4 per cent.

Prices have been rising this year across all sectors in Dubai amid the wider economic recovery following the pandemic.

  • VILLA PRICES FROM CBRE: Palm Jumeirah: Dh3,704 per square foot — up 3.0 per cent in October, up 0.2 per cent in September, up 1.9 per cent in August, up 4.6 per cent in July, up 4.9 per cent in June, up 5 per cent a month in May, up 5 per cent in April.
    VILLA PRICES FROM CBRE: Palm Jumeirah: Dh3,704 per square foot — up 3.0 per cent in October, up 0.2 per cent in September, up 1.9 per cent in August, up 4.6 per cent in July, up 4.9 per cent in June, up 5 per cent a month in May, up 5 per cent in April.
  • Emirates Hills: Dh2,175 per square foot — down 3.6 per cent in October, up 3.8 per cent in September, no change in August, up 0.3 per cent in July, up 3.3 per cent in June, up 1.8 per cent in May, up 1.8 per cent in April. Photo: Knight Frank
    Emirates Hills: Dh2,175 per square foot — down 3.6 per cent in October, up 3.8 per cent in September, no change in August, up 0.3 per cent in July, up 3.3 per cent in June, up 1.8 per cent in May, up 1.8 per cent in April. Photo: Knight Frank
  • Jumeirah: Dh2,214 per square foot — up 3.6 per cent in October, up 2.3 per cent in September, down 1.1 per cent in August, up 2.2 per cent in July, up 1.0 per cent in June, up 2.0 per cent in May, up 3.7 per cent in April. Sarah Dea / The National
    Jumeirah: Dh2,214 per square foot — up 3.6 per cent in October, up 2.3 per cent in September, down 1.1 per cent in August, up 2.2 per cent in July, up 1.0 per cent in June, up 2.0 per cent in May, up 3.7 per cent in April. Sarah Dea / The National
  • District One: Dh2,055 per square foot — up 3.2 per cent in October, up 2.4 per cent in September, down 2.1 per cent in August, up 2.2 per cent in July, up 4.1 per cent in June, up 2.3 per cent in May, down 0.9 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
    District One: Dh2,055 per square foot — up 3.2 per cent in October, up 2.4 per cent in September, down 2.1 per cent in August, up 2.2 per cent in July, up 4.1 per cent in June, up 2.3 per cent in May, down 0.9 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
  • Mohammed bin Rashid City: Dh1,672 per square foot — up 0.7 per cent in October, up 0.6 per cent in September, up 1.2 per cent in August, up 3.6 per cent in July, up 4.0 per cent in June, up 0.1 per cent in May, up 0.7 per cent in April.
    Mohammed bin Rashid City: Dh1,672 per square foot — up 0.7 per cent in October, up 0.6 per cent in September, up 1.2 per cent in August, up 3.6 per cent in July, up 4.0 per cent in June, up 0.1 per cent in May, up 0.7 per cent in April.
  • Dubai Hills: Dh1,588 per square foot — up 2.3 per cent in October, up 1.0 per cent in September, up 0.9 per cent in August, down 0.2 per cent in July, up 4.1 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May, up 1.5 per cent in April. Photo: Emaar Malls Management
    Dubai Hills: Dh1,588 per square foot — up 2.3 per cent in October, up 1.0 per cent in September, up 0.9 per cent in August, down 0.2 per cent in July, up 4.1 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May, up 1.5 per cent in April. Photo: Emaar Malls Management
  • The Meadows: Dh1,586 per square foot — up 2.2 per cent in October, up 1.2 per cent in September, up 1.5 per cent in August, up 2.5 per cent in July, up 0.9 per cent in June, up 1.6 per cent in May, down 0.5 per cent in April. Jeffrey E Biteng / The National
    The Meadows: Dh1,586 per square foot — up 2.2 per cent in October, up 1.2 per cent in September, up 1.5 per cent in August, up 2.5 per cent in July, up 0.9 per cent in June, up 1.6 per cent in May, down 0.5 per cent in April. Jeffrey E Biteng / The National
  • The Lakes: Dh1,464 per square foot — down 1.3 per cent in October, down 1.1 per cent in September, up 1.3 per cent in August, up 1.3 per cent in July, up 1.6 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May, up 1.0 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
    The Lakes: Dh1,464 per square foot — down 1.3 per cent in October, down 1.1 per cent in September, up 1.3 per cent in August, up 1.3 per cent in July, up 1.6 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May, up 1.0 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Jumeirah Islands: Dh1,563 per square foot — up 3.9 per cent in October, up 2.9 per cent in September, down 3.7 per cent in August, down 0.1 per cent in July, up 3.6 per cent in June, up 0.9 per cent in May, up 2.5 per cent in April. Photo: Prestige Dubai
    Jumeirah Islands: Dh1,563 per square foot — up 3.9 per cent in October, up 2.9 per cent in September, down 3.7 per cent in August, down 0.1 per cent in July, up 3.6 per cent in June, up 0.9 per cent in May, up 2.5 per cent in April. Photo: Prestige Dubai
  • Jumeirah Golf Estates: Dh1,474 per square foot — down 1.6 per cent in October, up 4.6 per cent in September, down 1.4 per cent in August, up 4.4 per cent in July, down 1.1 per cent in June, up 3.6 per cent in May, up 4.6 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
    Jumeirah Golf Estates: Dh1,474 per square foot — down 1.6 per cent in October, up 4.6 per cent in September, down 1.4 per cent in August, up 4.4 per cent in July, down 1.1 per cent in June, up 3.6 per cent in May, up 4.6 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
  • The Springs: Dh1,165 per square foot — up 0.9 per cent in October, up 1.0 per cent in September, down 0.4 per cent, up 3.9 per cent in July, up 0.8 per cent in June, up 1.8 per cent in May, up 2.1 per cent in April. Photo: Better Homes
    The Springs: Dh1,165 per square foot — up 0.9 per cent in October, up 1.0 per cent in September, down 0.4 per cent, up 3.9 per cent in July, up 0.8 per cent in June, up 1.8 per cent in May, up 2.1 per cent in April. Photo: Better Homes
  • Arabian Ranches: Dh1,235 per square foot — up 1.3 per cent in October, up 1.4 per cent in September, up 0.8 per cent in August, down 2.5 per cent in July, up 1.7 per cent in June, up 0.7 per cent in May, up 3.7 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
    Arabian Ranches: Dh1,235 per square foot — up 1.3 per cent in October, up 1.4 per cent in September, up 0.8 per cent in August, down 2.5 per cent in July, up 1.7 per cent in June, up 0.7 per cent in May, up 3.7 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Meydan City: Dh1,199 per square foot — up 0.8 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.6 per cent in August, down 0.4 per cent in July, up 1.3 per cent in June, up 0.9 per cent in May, up 0.9 per cent in April.
    Meydan City: Dh1,199 per square foot — up 0.8 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.6 per cent in August, down 0.4 per cent in July, up 1.3 per cent in June, up 0.9 per cent in May, up 0.9 per cent in April.
  • Al Barari: Dh1,287 per square foot — up 1.0 per cent in October, up 2.9 per cent in September, up 2.2 per cent in August, up 3.5 per cent in July, up 3.0 per cent in June, down 0.7 per cent in May, up 4.9 per cent in April. Photo: Luxhabitat
    Al Barari: Dh1,287 per square foot — up 1.0 per cent in October, up 2.9 per cent in September, up 2.2 per cent in August, up 3.5 per cent in July, up 3.0 per cent in June, down 0.7 per cent in May, up 4.9 per cent in April. Photo: Luxhabitat
  • Jumeirah Park: Dh1,106 per square foot — down 2.0 per cent in October, down 1.9 per cent in September, up 0.4 per cent in August, up 0.4 per cent in July, up 3.8 per cent in June, up 0.2 per cent in May, up 0.8 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
    Jumeirah Park: Dh1,106 per square foot — down 2.0 per cent in October, down 1.9 per cent in September, up 0.4 per cent in August, up 0.4 per cent in July, up 3.8 per cent in June, up 0.2 per cent in May, up 0.8 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Victory Heights: Dh1,139 per square foot — up 4.2 per cent in October, down 0.9 per cent in September, down 1.3 per cent in August, down 0.3 per cent in July, up 1.4 per cent in June, up 3.7 per cent in May, down 2.2 per cent in April. Photo: Luxhabitat
    Victory Heights: Dh1,139 per square foot — up 4.2 per cent in October, down 0.9 per cent in September, down 1.3 per cent in August, down 0.3 per cent in July, up 1.4 per cent in June, up 3.7 per cent in May, down 2.2 per cent in April. Photo: Luxhabitat
  • Mudon: Dh1,013 per square foot — down 0.7 per cent in October, up 2.1 per cent in September, down 2.6 per cent in August, up 0.9 per cent in July, up 1.4 per cent in June, down 0.5 per cent in May, up 2.7 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
    Mudon: Dh1,013 per square foot — down 0.7 per cent in October, up 2.1 per cent in September, down 2.6 per cent in August, up 0.9 per cent in July, up 1.4 per cent in June, down 0.5 per cent in May, up 2.7 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
  • Jumeirah Village Triangle: Dh1,031 per square foot — up 2.8 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.7 per cent in August, down 0.1 per cent in July, up 3.7 per cent in June, down 0.2 per cent in May, up 2.3 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
    Jumeirah Village Triangle: Dh1,031 per square foot — up 2.8 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.7 per cent in August, down 0.1 per cent in July, up 3.7 per cent in June, down 0.2 per cent in May, up 2.3 per cent in April. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Sustainable City: Dh966 per square foot — down 0.4 per cent in October, up 0.5 per cent in September, down 0.7 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, up 2.6 per cent in June, down 0.8 per cent in May, up 0.6 per cent in April. Antonie Robertson / The National
    Sustainable City: Dh966 per square foot — down 0.4 per cent in October, up 0.5 per cent in September, down 0.7 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, up 2.6 per cent in June, down 0.8 per cent in May, up 0.6 per cent in April. Antonie Robertson / The National
  • Town Square: Dh823 per square foot — up 1.5 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.6 per cent in August, up 0.6 per cent in July, down 0.8 per cent in June, down 1.0 per cent in May, up 1.4 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
    Town Square: Dh823 per square foot — up 1.5 per cent in October, up 0.4 per cent in September, up 0.6 per cent in August, up 0.6 per cent in July, down 0.8 per cent in June, down 1.0 per cent in May, up 1.4 per cent in April. Satish Kumar / The National
  • Living Legends: Dh825 per square foot — down 4.2 per cent in October, down 1.9 per cent in September, up 2.6 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, up 4.0 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May. Pawan Singh / The National
    Living Legends: Dh825 per square foot — down 4.2 per cent in October, down 1.9 per cent in September, up 2.6 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, up 4.0 per cent in June, up 1.2 per cent in May. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Jumeirah Village Circle: Dh601 per square foot — down 1.8 per cent in October, down 1.3 per cent in September, down 1.4 per cent in August, up 3.3 per cent in July, down 1.6 per cent in June, up 0.8 per cent in May, up 1.3 per cent in April. Antonie Robertson / The National
    Jumeirah Village Circle: Dh601 per square foot — down 1.8 per cent in October, down 1.3 per cent in September, down 1.4 per cent in August, up 3.3 per cent in July, down 1.6 per cent in June, up 0.8 per cent in May, up 1.3 per cent in April. Antonie Robertson / The National
  • Falconcity of Wonders: Dh756 per square foot — up 0.9 per cent in October, down 2.0 per cent in September, up 4.8 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, flat in June, down 2.5 per cent in May, up 1.6 per cent in April. Sarah Dea / The National
    Falconcity of Wonders: Dh756 per square foot — up 0.9 per cent in October, down 2.0 per cent in September, up 4.8 per cent in August, up 0.7 per cent in July, flat in June, down 2.5 per cent in May, up 1.6 per cent in April. Sarah Dea / The National
  • Damac Hills 2: Dh595 per square foot — down 1.2 per cent in October, down 0.4 per cent in September, down 0.5 per cent in August, down 0.4 per cent in July, down 1.6 per cent in June, up 1.0 per cent in May, up 1.3 per cent in April. Photo: Allsopp & Allsopp
    Damac Hills 2: Dh595 per square foot — down 1.2 per cent in October, down 0.4 per cent in September, down 0.5 per cent in August, down 0.4 per cent in July, down 1.6 per cent in June, up 1.0 per cent in May, up 1.3 per cent in April. Photo: Allsopp & Allsopp

Business activity in Dubai's non-oil private sector economy was “robust” in October as companies increased their headcounts at the fastest pace in about three years amid stronger new orders.

The emirate's headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global purchasing managers' index reading stood at 56, above the neutral 50 mark separating expansion from contraction.

The UAE economy is set to grow by more than 6 per cent this year, after expanding by 3.8 per cent in 2021, buttressed by a rebound in tourism, construction and activity related to the Expo 2020 Dubai, the International Monetary Fund said last week.

A lack of prime supply has also been driving up prices. Knight Frank said the number of new high-end homes planned is failing to keep pace with demand.

Bulgari Lighthouse on Jumeirah Bay Island (31 apartments) and Alpago’s Palm Flower on The Palm Jumeirah (11 apartments) account for the bulk of new high-end homes coming to the city’s prime neighbourhoods.

“Supply is the other critical factor in our 2023 outlook, with just eight villas in Dubai’s prime precincts expected to be delivered by 2025,” Mr Durrani said.

“Developers have not responded to the buoyancy in demand as we have seen in past cycles and with supply remaining limited and demand for luxury waterfront continuing to strengthen, our 2023 prime residential forecast of 13.5 per cent is supported by a clear demand-supply imbalance as well as a positive economic backdrop.”

Dubai prices are likely to end the year about 50 per cent higher than 2021, Mr Durrani added.

Palm Jumeirah villa prices are the most expensive in Dubai at Dh3,704 per square foot in October, data from CBRE show. Prices have risen in each of the past six months, sometimes by as much as 5 per cent on a month-by-month basis.

The Palm has been the location for a number of records this year. Alpago's Casa Del Sole villa sold for a Dubai property market record of Dh302 million, while there was also recently a rental record after a villa was leased on a six-month basis for Dh4 million.

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Who was Alfred Nobel?

The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.

  • In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
  • Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
  • Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.

SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net

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