Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of Opec, is boosting crude output to as much as possible with the global price rout over, Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary of the oil and gas ministry, said.
Oman will produce 980,000 barrels a day this year, Mr Al Aufi said in an interview in Muscat on Sunday. That would be 4 per cent higher than in 2013, according to BP data. Oman will provide 2014 production figures in April, Al Aufi said.
“It’s crucial that we continue executing the future projects,” Mr Al Aufi said. “It’s crucial that we continue the seismic activities and the exploration activities because when the market turns around, we need to have these opportunities identified and ready to go.”
Rising supply from the US to Russia is contributing to a worldwide crude surplus that Oman estimates at 1 million barrels a day. Brent crude futures have climbed 5.3 per cent this year and added 14 cents to $60.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11.37am Singapore time. The contract fell 48 per cent last year.
“Has it bottomed?,” Mr Al Aufi said, when asked about the oil price. “It probably did.”
Governments in the region have had to reduce subsidies on diesel, natural gas and utilities while companies cut billions from capital budgets because of low oil prices. Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell called off plans to build a $6.5 billion petrochemical plant.
Oil and gas accounts for 79 per cent of Oman’s revenue, Mr Al Aufi said. With a projected deficit of 2.5 billion rials ($6.49 billion), Oman’s 2015 budget assumes an oil price of $75 a barrel, he said. A balanced budget would need oil to be over $100, he said.
Oman has no plans to join Opec, which controls about 40 per cent of the world’s crude output, he said. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, led Opec’s decision to keep output targets unchanged rather than cut production to boost prices.
“If you’re a member of Opec then you will follow,” Mr Al Aufi said. “We like to stay independent as much as possible unless we can influence the decision that will be taken by whatever organisation.”
Oman’s oil ministry asked energy companies about three weeks ago to review their costs to ensure production is still economical, he said.
“There are indications that there will be some cost reduction,” he said. “Not activity reduction, cost reduction.”
The government is still in talks with Iran to build a natural gas pipeline, he said. In March, Iran announced that it signed an agreement to build a $1bn pipeline to transport natural gas from the South Pars field to Oman.
“The intentions are still there, that at some point in time we start importing gas from Iran,” Mr Al Aufi said. Natural gas demand in Oman is growing 6 to 10 per cent a year and domestic prices will increase at least 3 per cent a year, he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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