The Paris-based energy watchdog however warned not to expect surging oil prices because of the prolonged period of overproduction that preceded the recent recovery. Richard Carson / Reuters
The Paris-based energy watchdog however warned not to expect surging oil prices because of the prolonged period of overproduction that preceded the recent recovery. Richard Carson / Reuters

Oil stockpile much lower than previously thought, says IEA



The International Energy Agency said yesterday that the world's oil stockpile was much lower than it previously thought, owing to stronger-than-anticipated demand.

After a strong first quarter for world oil demand, the Paris-based rich consumer countries’ energy watchdog said it now expects demand this year to be 100,000 barrels per day higher than it previously forecast, at 1.3 million bpd.

In its first forecast for next year, the IEA also said it expects the same rate of increased demand – 1.3 million bpd – with a relatively small increase in oil supply from producers outside Opec, of about 200,000 bpd.

The IEA had estimated at the start of the year that the supply glut would continue to grow in the first half by 1.5 million bpd.

Looking back, “it looks as if the figure is about 800,000 bpd”, the IEA report said. “Between January and today, two main factors have transformed the outlook: first, oil demand growth has been significantly stronger than we expected … The second main factor to transform the outlook has been unexpected supply cuts.”

The demand side was helped by much stronger petrol consumption in the US, which helped to turn marginally declining oil demand in the previous five months to strong growth of 400,000 bpd year-on-year in the March-to-May period, the report said.

Next year, India’s forecast demand growth of more than 8 per cent, together with China’s slower but still significant 3.3 per cent growth is expected to keep world demand growth steady.

On the supply front, in the first half of the year Canada’s wildfires removed up to 1.5 million bpd of production capacity, while the politically-related disruptions in Nigeria has forced output to a 30-year low.

Nigeria's troubles – as well as those in fellow Opec member Libya – look long term, the IEA said, while for non-Opec countries production will continue to fall by an average 900,000 bpd this year, including 500,000 bpd for US shale output.

Although the IEA expects non-Opec production to rise again next year – by about 200,000 bpd – this does not account for the effect of the huge decline in investment by oil companies, said Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Energy Aspects. “I think they are grossly underestimating the [capital expenditure] cuts which has meant the underlying declines in mature oil basins have stepped up,” she said.

The IEA report contrasts with the US government’s Energy Information Agency, which expects non-Opec output to decline by about 200,000 bpd next year. But even that is too low, Ms Sen said.

The rapidly declining spending in areas like the North Sea – where huge job losses are forecast – as well as Russia, China and South America will mean a decline of 500,000 bpd in non-Opec supply next year, consultancy Energy Aspects predicts.

The IEA warned, however, not to expect surging oil prices because of the prolonged period of overproduction that preceded the recent recovery.

“Following three consecutive years of stock build at an average rate close to 1 million bpd, there is an enormous inventory overhang to clear,” the report noted. “This is likely to dampen prospects of a significant increase in oil prices.”

amcauley@thenational.ae

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Recycle Reuse Repurpose

New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to  handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors

Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site

Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area

Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent  organic waste  and 13 per cent  general waste.

About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor

Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:

Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled

Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays

Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters

Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill 

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Brief scores:

Manchester City 3

Aguero 1', 44', 61'

Arsenal ​​​​​1

Koscielny 11'

Man of the match: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

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Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

How to report a beggar

Abu Dhabi – Call 999 or 8002626 (Aman Service)

Dubai – Call 800243

Sharjah – Call 065632222

Ras Al Khaimah - Call 072053372

Ajman – Call 067401616

Umm Al Quwain – Call 999

Fujairah - Call 092051100 or 092224411

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

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Favourite team: Bayern Munich

Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer

Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates 

 

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Director: Rolan Emmerich

Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry

Rating: 3/5

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MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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