The Middle East is likely to become more reliant on the expertise of international oil companies as the region's oil and gas deposits are increasingly hard to extract, says BP's chief executive.
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He said declining output at existing oil fields paired with growing domestic demand presents a challenge to Arab producers. This will lead to rising investment in boosting flagging recovery rates, and require the technology and know-how of the big international oil companies.
Robert Dudley, the chief executive of the oil major headquartered in London, yesterday outlined the scale of the challenge when he told delegates at the World Petroleum Congress in Doha that the decline in global output was equivalent to the amount Saudi Arabia pumps - 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd) .
Many oilfields in the Middle East have been tapped for years and are starting to become depleted. Without so-called enhanced oil recovery techniques, production levels fall in line with declining reserves.
"The days of easy oil are over. In order to maximise the potential, we have to have enhanced oil recovery," Mohamed Al Hamli, the UAE's Oil Minister, said on Monday.
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) recreates the original pressure in the reservoir by injecting steam, gas or even carbon-doxide emissions. Wood MacKenzie, a consultancy, estimates oil companies will invest a total of US$40 billion (Dh146.93bn) on boosting capacity in the Middle East, 18 per cent more than last year, according to Bloomberg News.
"These are projects where national oil companies have greater need for support from international oil companies, because the international oil companies have had more experience of these challenging conditions," Iain Brown, the head of regional research at Wood Mackenzie, told Bloomberg News.
International oil companies are already engaging in EOR in the Gulf. Royal Dutch Shell has long been developing the use of enhanced recovery methods at Oman's mature oil fields through its stake in the country's Petroleum Development Oman. Its US counterpart Chevron plans to lift heavy oil from deposits in Kuwait by injecting steam into a field in what could become the world's largest "steamflood" operation by 2017.
Technologically challenging production methods will also be needed to cater to the growing demand for natural gas. A rapid increase in electricity use and an emerging petrochemicals industry have led to a steady rise in demand for gas, which can no longer be met by associated gas from crude production. Yesterday, Khalid Al Falih, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, told the congress the company was looking for a partner to develop shale gas in the kingdom. Shale gas is stuck in rock formation that makes it difficult to extract, but new production methods have led to a huge increase in gas supply in the US.
The year, BP announced so-called tight gas reserves, those trapped in rock formations deep underground, could be commercially developed in Oman.
The company will make its final investment decision on the $15bn project next year.
Unconventional gas resources are already being developed in the UAE, where the US company Occidental has committed to the $10n Shah project to desulphurise gas so it can be used commercially.
Across the border in Rub Al Khali, Saudi Arabia's empty quarter, Shell and Saudi Aramco are exploring for gas in formations similar to Shah.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
RESULT
Liverpool 4 Southampton 0
Jota (2', 32')
Thiago (37')
Van Dijk (52')
Man of the match: Diogo Jota (Liverpool)
Indoor Cricket World Cup
Venue Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE squad Saqib Nazir (captain), Aaqib Malik, Fahad Al Hashmi, Isuru Umesh, Nadir Hussain, Sachin Talwar, Nashwan Nasir, Prashath Kumara, Ramveer Rai, Sameer Nayyak, Umar Shah, Vikrant Shetty
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg
Real Madrid (2) v Bayern Munich (1)
Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
When: 10.45pm, Tuesday
Watch Live: beIN Sports HD
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
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- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5