Just when investors thought it was safe to go back in the water, the resumption of the US-China trade dispute and the renewed threat of wider trade wars are posing a renewed threat to bullish markets and confidence in a global recovery.
A key part of investors’ expectations of a resurgence in the global economy this year was linked to hopes of a positive outcome to the US-China trade dispute. However, President Donald Trump’s tweets a fortnight ago, threatening to escalate tariffs on Chinese imports put a big question mark over this assumption, and the implementation of that threat has crystallised many of those fears.
On May 10 the US hiked tariffs on $200 billion (Dh734.6bn) of Chinese imports to 25 per cent, as talks between the two countries ended without a resolution. The US also indicated it was preparing to introduce tariffs on another $300bn of imports from China, releasing a list of goods that could see tariffs of up to 25 per cent imposed by the end of June if no deal is reached by then. This would effectively cover all remaining Chinese exports to the US that are currently not being taxed and would likely push up the cost of many household goods for US consumers.
While President Trump said that he feels the trade talks will still be successful, the 4 per cent drop in the S&P 500 index in the last fortnight tells a different story.
A few days later China retaliated announcing it would increase tariffs on $60bn worth of imports from the US from June 1, including on computers, agricultural products, liquefied natural gas and toothpaste. While President Trump said that he feels the trade talks will still be successful, the 4 per cent drop in the S&P 500 index in the last fortnight tells a different story. This does at least appear to be concentrating President Trump’s mind.
Amidst an escalation of trade wars with China, in which the telecom firm Huawei was specifically targeted as a national threat, Mr Trump deferred a decision on tariffs on EU and Japanese autos and spare parts by 180 days. The US government also reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico regarding tariffs on steel and aluminium imposed last year, showing that he does not want to fight trade battles on multiple fronts.
It is frequently observed that there are no winners in a trade war, but Mr Trump seems to view it as a matter of relative strength rather than a zero sum game, feeling emboldened in his stance on China trade by the recent record highs in the stock market, the 3.2 per cent headline growth in US GDP and the historic low unemployment rate in April of 3.6 per cent. His approval ratings are also around the highest seen during his presidency, which may all be giving him the impression that he has much less to lose.
There are numerous measures of the estimated cost of the trade dispute on consumers, on the US economy and on the broader world, with think-tanks, banks and global institutions all projecting their various scenarios of the hit to growth.
There is a risk, however, that such economic models do not pick up the full extent of the damage to business and consumer confidence and the impact on global supply chains, trade flows and investment. The bottom line is the latest twist in the trade dispute increases recession risks for most major economies.
Already, world trade volumes are contracting and the global composite PMI output index showed the global expansion slowing to a three-month low in April. New export business also fell for the fifth consecutive month, while in the US and China the latest retail sales and industrial production data were all soft. So, the outcome of the trade talks is clearly taking place at a critical moment for the world economy.
The next deadline for the trade talks now looks like the G20 Summit in Osaka at the end of June. Defining what will constitute a successful outcome is not clear however. The US-China trade dispute is likely to play out over the long term, becoming a process or framework where compliance and enforcement are the key elements. In the short term, equity markets will probably need to see a reduction in the 25 per cent tariff rate or some sort of partial withdrawal of such tariffs if investors are likely to feel brave enough to dive back in the water again.
Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rob%20Marshall%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHalle%20Bailey%2C%20Jonah%20Hauer-King%2C%20Melissa%20McCarthy%2C%20Javier%20Bardem%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ELECTION%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3EMacron%E2%80%99s%20Ensemble%20group%20won%20245%20seats.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20second-largest%20group%20in%20parliament%20is%20Nupes%2C%20a%20leftist%20coalition%20led%20by%20Jean-Luc%20Melenchon%2C%20which%20gets%20131%20lawmakers.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20far-right%20National%20Rally%20fared%20much%20better%20than%20expected%20with%2089%20seats.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20centre-right%20Republicans%20and%20their%20allies%20took%2061.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EGlobal%20Islamic%20economy%20to%20grow%203.1%25%20to%20touch%20%242.4%20trillion%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fuk-economy-plunges-into-worst-ever-recession-after-record-20-4-contraction-1.1062560%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EUK%20economy%20plunges%20into%20worst-ever%20recession%20after%20record%2020.4%25%20contraction%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EIslamic%20economy%20consumer%20spending%20to%20increase%2045%25%20to%20%243.2tn%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Star%20Wars%3A%20Episode%20I%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Phantom%20Menace
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Big%20Ape%20Productions%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20LucasArts%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20PlayStation%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Teaching in coronavirus times
High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Los Angeles, from Dh4,975 return, including taxes. The flight time is 16 hours. Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico and Southwest all fly direct from Los Angeles to San Jose del Cabo from Dh1,243 return, including taxes. The flight time is two-and-a-half hours.
The trip
Lindblad Expeditions National Geographic’s eight-day Whales Wilderness itinerary costs from US$6,190 (Dh22,736) per person, twin share, including meals, accommodation and excursions, with departures in March and April 2018.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
Top 5 concerns globally:
1. Unemployment
2. Spread of infectious diseases
3. Fiscal crises
4. Cyber attacks
5. Profound social instability
Top 5 concerns in the Mena region
1. Energy price shock
2. Fiscal crises
3. Spread of infectious diseases
4. Unmanageable inflation
5. Cyber attacks
Source: World Economic Foundation
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The bio:
Favourite holiday destination: I really enjoyed Sri Lanka and Vietnam but my dream destination is the Maldives.
Favourite food: My mum’s Chinese cooking.
Favourite film: Robocop, followed by The Terminator.
Hobbies: Off-roading, scuba diving, playing squash and going to the gym.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.0L twin-turbo V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 571hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,000-4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L/100km
Price, base: from Dh571,000
On sale: this week
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore'
Rating: 3/5
Directed by: David Yates
Starring: Mads Mikkelson, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Jude Law
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
1.
|
United States
|
2.
|
China
|
3.
|
UAE
|
4.
|
Japan
|
5
|
Norway
|
6.
|
Canada
|
7.
|
Singapore
|
8.
|
Australia
|
9.
|
Saudi Arabia
|
10.
|
South Korea
|
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20EA%20Vancouver%2C%20EA%20Romania%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20EA%20Sports%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Brief scores:
Kashima Antlers 0
River Plate 4
Zuculini 24', Martinez 73', 90 2', Borre 89' (pen)
Six tips to secure your smart home
Most smart home devices are controlled via the owner's smartphone. Therefore, if you are using public wi-fi on your phone, always use a VPN (virtual private network) that offers strong security features and anonymises your internet connection.
Keep your smart home devices’ software up-to-date. Device makers often send regular updates - follow them without fail as they could provide protection from a new security risk.
Use two-factor authentication so that in addition to a password, your identity is authenticated by a second sign-in step like a code sent to your mobile number.
Set up a separate guest network for acquaintances and visitors to ensure the privacy of your IoT devices’ network.
Change the default privacy and security settings of your IoT devices to take extra steps to secure yourself and your home.
Always give your router a unique name, replacing the one generated by the manufacturer, to ensure a hacker cannot ascertain its make or model number.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”