Shoppers stock up on groceries in Yangon in Myanmar. Panic buying has spread across the globe as people try to prepare for the effects of coronavirus. AP
Shoppers stock up on groceries in Yangon in Myanmar. Panic buying has spread across the globe as people try to prepare for the effects of coronavirus. AP
Shoppers stock up on groceries in Yangon in Myanmar. Panic buying has spread across the globe as people try to prepare for the effects of coronavirus. AP
Shoppers stock up on groceries in Yangon in Myanmar. Panic buying has spread across the globe as people try to prepare for the effects of coronavirus. AP

Shock and awe of coronavirus can be 'contained and reversed'


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I’m not prone to making directive calls in columns like this one or to using capital letters in my social media posts. Rather than telling people what to think, I strongly prefer to try to help them reach their own conclusions by providing analysis and insights.

In the last few weeks, however, I’ve made two notable exceptions: in repeatedly urging policymakers, companies and individuals to realise that the coronavirus shock was fundamentally different in that it would trigger unprecedented economic sudden stops, a phenomenon that is extremely unfamiliar outside of fragile or failed states and communities hit by big natural disasters; and, as I anticipated a much bigger and generalised market correction, by urging investors not to keep on buying the dip, an investment strategy that had performed extremely well in recent years.

The bottom line is that the economic disruptions immediately ahead will be more severe and widespread than the ones experienced by the bulk of the population in advanced countries.

During the weekend, I used capital letters again in a social media post — this time to warn that the cascading sudden stops were reaching CRITICAL MASS. I reached this conclusion through multiple consultations over many weeks with doctors, economists and behavioural scientists and also by drawing on my experience decades ago working at the International Monetary Fund on crises in developing countries, including failing states.

Think of what is happening as a huge paradigm shift for economies, institutions and social norms and practices that, critically, are not wired for such a phenomenon. It requires us to understand the dynamics, not only to navigate them well but also to avoid behaviours that make the situation a lot worse.

The bottom line is that the economic disruptions immediately ahead will be more severe and widespread than the ones experienced by the bulk of the population in advanced countries.

We live in a global economy wired for ever deepening interconnectivity; and we are living through a period in which the current phase of health policy — emphasising social distancing, separation and isolation — runs counter to what drives economic growth, prosperity and financial stability. The effects of these two basic factors will be amplified by the economics of fear and uncertainty that tempt everyone not just to clear out supermarket shelves, but sadly also reignite terrible conscious and unconscious biases.

All this will have stressful and immediate negative effects on institutions. Policies will be designed under “fog of war” conditions, including that awful trade-off between the critical need for urgency and both imperfect information and the absence of a playbook. The effectiveness of traditional measures will wane at a time of repeated need for streamlined and yet highly co-ordinated decision-making at the local, regional, national and international levels. And, if we are not careful, our own behaviours could compound this considerable list of challenges.

Wherever you look, economic activity is shutting down through a combination of government directives and social behaviours. US travel bans, European border closings, nationwide shutdowns and office and school shutdowns have become normal.

The phenomenon is accelerating also at the level of local communities — a popular restaurant’s Friday reservations fell by two-thirds compared with those just a week earlier, and its walk-in traffic declined even more — and it is now reaching critical mass when even isolated and less-fear prone segments of the population will be forced to disengage (after joining the panic buying of supplies). With that, economic damage will be even more immediate and even more widespread. And because it will also be unprecedented for many, it will turbocharge the type of uncertainty, fear and feeling of powerlessness that results in either total paralysis or massive overreactions.

I worry that this combination, by yanking so many out of their comfort zones, will also make us lose sight that this shock can be contained and reversed. And when the economic turnaround comes, and it will come, the economic snapback will be sharp. However, as I will detail in the future, there will also be longer-term implications, including a further impetus for deglobalisation.

The most important turnaround catalyst will come from the effective deployment of medical tests, early treatment and, eventually, a combination of self-immunity and vaccine. Everyone can facilitate this process by following medical advice that seeks to protect both individuals and communities.

As to what to do now (and, with apologies, because this will sound like another directive): government, corporate and household leaders should communicate transparently about the unusual dynamics in play, stressing the unprecedented nature for most, along with the highly unsettling uncertainty and fear that inevitably results from this.

They should help draw the path ahead that acknowledges the inconvenient reality of further economic damage before the bottom is reached. Supplement this by advice on how, through a combination of defence and offence, one can navigate the downturn, shorten its duration and accentuate the upturn. And do all this in the context of regular and professional communications, capital letters and all.

Mohamed El-Erian is the chief economic adviser at Allianz and the author of The Only Game in Town and When Markets Collide

* Bloomberg

Recipe: Spirulina Coconut Brothie

Ingredients
1 tbsp Spirulina powder
1 banana
1 cup unsweetened coconut milk (full fat preferable)
1 tbsp fresh turmeric or turmeric powder
½ cup fresh spinach leaves
½ cup vegan broth
2 crushed ice cubes (optional)

Method
Blend all the ingredients together on high in a high-speed blender until smooth and creamy. 

The specs

Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8

Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm

Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km

Price: Dh380,000

On sale: now 

The chef's advice

Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.

“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”

Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.

The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Batti Gul Meter Chalu

Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
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The Facility’s Versatility

Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
 
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
 
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
 
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
 
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
 
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket

If you go

The flights

Fly direct to London from the UAE with Etihad, Emirates, British Airways or Virgin Atlantic from about Dh2,500 return including taxes. 

The hotel

Rooms at the convenient and art-conscious Andaz London Liverpool Street cost from £167 (Dh800) per night including taxes.

The tour

The Shoreditch Street Art Tour costs from £15 (Dh73) per person for approximately three hours. 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
NINE WINLESS GAMES

Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Oct 27, PL)

Liverpool 5-5 Arsenal  (Oct 30, EFL)

Arsenal 1-1 Wolves (Nov 02, PL)

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arsenal  (Nov 6, Europa)

Leicester 2-0 Arsenal (Nov 9, PL)

Arsenal 2-2 Southampton (Nov 23, PL)

Arsenal 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Nov 28, Europa)

Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)

Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

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Tranquillity Base Hotel Casino (Domino) 

 

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Illegal%20shipments%20intercepted%20in%20Gulf%20region
%3Cp%3EThe%20Royal%20Navy%20raid%20is%20the%20latest%20in%20a%20series%20of%20successful%20interceptions%20of%20drugs%20and%20arms%20in%20the%20Gulf%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%2011%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUS%20coastguard%20recovers%20%2480%20million%20heroin%20haul%20from%20fishing%20vessel%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%208%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20coastguard%20vessel%20USCGC%20Glen%20Harris%20seizes%20heroin%20and%20meth%20worth%20more%20than%20%2430%20million%20from%20a%20fishing%20boat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Anti-tank%20guided%20missiles%20and%20missile%20components%20seized%20by%20HMS%20Lancaster%20from%20a%20small%20boat%20travelling%20from%20Iran%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOctober%209%2C%202022%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERoyal%20Navy%20frigate%20HMS%20Montrose%20recovers%20drugs%20worth%20%2417.8%20million%20from%20a%20dhow%20in%20Arabian%20Sea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeptember%2027%2C%202022%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20Naval%20Forces%20Central%20Command%20reports%20a%20find%20of%202.4%20tonnes%20of%20heroin%20on%20board%20fishing%20boat%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETuhoon%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYear%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFares%20Ghandour%2C%20Dr%20Naif%20Almutawa%2C%20Aymane%20Sennoussi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ehealth%20care%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E15%20employees%2C%20%24250%2C000%20in%20revenue%0D%3Cbr%3EI%3Cstrong%3Envestment%20stage%3A%20s%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWamda%20Capital%2C%20Nuwa%20Capital%2C%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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