With markets as becalmed as this, it’s no wonder macro traders are worried about their bonuses.
A deep-dive examination of global financial markets shows that only seven of about 250 assets across classes including equity indexes, sovereign bonds, currencies and commodities were high-volatility outliers based on their price swings this year.
That’s the lowest annual level since 2014, and follows two straight years where there were at least 10 outliers, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg as of Dec. 21.All but one of the seven outliers were currencies, if bitcoin is classed as such. An almost 70 percent surge in Argentina’s Merval Index helped it join the group -- a testament to investor excitement about President Mauricio Macri’s reform program and chances of the country’s stocks getting reclassified for emerging-market indexes by MSCI.
The price swings shown in the Bloomberg analysis are expressed as z-scores, a measure of volatility based on price standard deviation (1997 to 2017). The study identified assets with z-scores of 2.326 or more -- with a 1 per cent probability of occurring -- as high-volatility outliers.
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Read more:
Bitcoin's rebound slows as fundamental questions remain
Bitcoin rises 10% in bounce back from last week's sell-off
Cryptocurrencies resume sell-off as one-day recovery fizzles
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“You have very little news that could really produce volatility in the marketplace” this year, thanks to effective policy communication by the world’s major central banks, said Thomas Poullaouec, head of Asia-Pacific multi-asset solutions with T. Rowe Price Hong Kong.
Among the risk scenarios investors faced at the start of the year that didn’t pan out included a US-China trade war triggered by President Donald Trump’s protectionist action; conflict between the US and North Korea; and rolling election wins for separatist European political parties in the Netherlands, France, Germany and potentially Italy.
One scenario few might have seen coming was the Saudi Arabian-led move to isolate Qatar. That sent the offshore Qatari riyal tumbling, and it had a z-score of 4.354. Coming close behind was Uzbekistan’s currency, the soum, at 4.351, after the nation unveiled a devaluation in September in an effort to attract investment. The riyal and soum, like the other currencies atop the list, are relatively thinly traded.
For all of the concerns about its tulip-bubble like price surge this year, bitcoin only comes in sixth on the volatility scale among currencies. Of course, not all agree it would merit inclusion in that asset class.
With traditional fear gauges at historic lows, it’s little surprise that the z-score for the Cboe Volatility Index, tied to the S&P 500 Index, is the lowest in 20 years.
And that itself might be a concern when it comes to what could happen in 2018.
“My worry now going into the end of this year is more a relative sense of complacency, where everything seems fine,” Poullaouec said.
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
Barcelona 3
Messi (27’, 32’, 87’)
Leganes 1
El Zhar (68’)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
MANDOOB
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20profile
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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Company%20Profile
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