Gold surged to a new record and Bitcoin broke the $40,000 barrier for the first time in 19 months in Asian trading on Monday, as markets shrugged off US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s reminder that policymakers are in no hurry to ease interest rates.
The precious metal jumped as much as 3.1 per cent to $2,135.39 an ounce while Bitcoin was up 4.69 per cent at $41,267.53 as of 9.20am UAE time.
“Markets are piling in on the rate cut bets,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne. “Gold can run higher and will do at the earliest sign of a recession.”
The rally in gold and Bitcoin comes even as the dollar edged higher and policy sensitive two-year Treasuries pared Friday’s strong gains, as traders held bets the Fed could cut as early as March.
Swaps have priced a full reduction by May and project a full point of easing by December 2024.
The central bank is ready to raise rates further if needed, although policy is “well into restrictive territory”, Mr Powell noted on Friday.
US stocks closed at their highest since March 2022 and two-year yields at their lowest since June on Friday as signs pile up that American households are starting to pull back, after defying expectations all year and splurging over the summer.
A measure of US factory activity shrank for a 13th straight month in November as high interest rates continue to hammer the goods-producing side of the economy.
“The big rebound in shares has left them technically overbought and at risk of a consolidation or short term pull back,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients.
“However, further gains are likely into year end and early next year as inflation continues to ease” and positive market seasonality kicks in later this month, he said.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin closed in on $41,000, extending the year’s rebound amid bets on lower interest rates and as the industry awaits potential approval of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
This week, traders will be monitoring for clues to the health of the global economy with Australian growth, Chinese inflation and US non-farm payrolls data all due.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to sound hawkish as it keeps its rate on hold on Tuesday after Governor Michele Bullock warned inflation was now home-grown.
While the cooler-than-expected inflation will keep the RBA on hold, “sticky ‘home-grown’ services inflation will ensure a tightening bias is retained”, Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Group in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients.
“A rate hike in February hinges on the outcome of the December quarter inflation due for release in late January.”
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Q&A with Dash Berlin
Welcome back. What was it like to return to RAK and to play for fans out here again?
It’s an amazing feeling to be back in the passionate UAE again. Seeing the fans having a great time that is what it’s all about.
You're currently touring the globe as part of your Legends of the Feels Tour. How important is it to you to include the Middle East in the schedule?
The tour is doing really well and is extensive and intensive at the same time travelling all over the globe. My Middle Eastern fans are very dear to me, it’s good to be back.
You mix tracks that people know and love, but you also have a visually impressive set too (graphics etc). Is that the secret recipe to Dash Berlin's live gigs?
People enjoying the combination of the music and visuals are the key factor in the success of the Legends Of The Feel tour 2018.
Have you had some time to explore Ras al Khaimah too? If so, what have you been up to?
Coming fresh out of Las Vegas where I continue my 7th annual year DJ residency at Marquee, I decided it was a perfect moment to catch some sun rays and enjoy the warm hospitality of Bab Al Bahr.
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
