Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, spoke recently, very sagely I thought, about the perils of Brexit and how the arguments, especially from the leave campaign, were flawed from the outset. But the man who won three successive general elections also took Britain into a hugely unpopular and probably an illegal war in Iraq and for that he has become so toxic a presence in British politics no one really listens to him any more.
I thought of Mr Blair last week when considering the recent musings of Samy Gemayel, the Lebanese MP and scion of a Maronite political clan that has been at the forefront of Lebanese politics for over 60 years. Mr Gemayel’s grandfather founded the right-wing nationalist Kataeb party in 1936; his father, Amin, was president from 1982 to 1988, assuming the position after his brother Bashir was murdered 21 days after taking office. Mr Gemayel’s own older brother, a former industry minister was gunned down in a Beirut street in 2006. His cousin, Nadim, Bashir’s son, is also an MP.
Mr Gemayel, who is only 36, has been attacking his fellow politicians and in particular the current government, shaming the political class for the corruption for which it is famous. His beef is the creation of a raft of new taxes in last week’s budget that will hit a population already struggling to make ends meet, rather than collect existing ones.
I quite like Mr Gemayel. We once worked together for the same democratic principles we thought Lebanon could aspire to, and while I accept that no politician in Lebanon can play the game without … well, you know, playing the game – I don’t doubt his conviction and sincerity. The same can be said for only a handful of recent Lebanese politicians and most of them, including his late brother, are dead.
But, and here’s the Blair connection, he comes with baggage: his father’s presidency was dogged by allegations of breathtaking embezzlement and this is enough to ensure that only his diehard supporters and those, who can take a more nuanced stand on what is happening in Lebanon today, are listening to what he had to say.
It is hard to argue with him. The fact remains that while last week’s budget, the first in 12 years, was a triumph in overcoming the political constipation for which Lebanon is renowned, it was nonetheless a lazy and insulting bid to raise the roughly US$800 million needed to pay for a long-awaited civil servant pay rise.
Insulting because the decision to create at least 22 new levies – an increase in income tax, VAT, the price of diesel, stamps on bills, judicial records and receipts; public notary fees; cement, construction licences and air travel – shows nothing but disdain for a population that has had to live with the state’s catastrophic decision-making for as long as anyone can remember.
Lazy because the government cannot summon up the effort required to fix existing tax collection shortfalls. The most obvious and widely known are electricity bills, customs tariffs, land registration and income tax evasion. Apparently there is about US$4 billion in that lot alone, which is not surprising given that the wholly inefficient Électricité du Liban costs the taxpayer about $1bn annually. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s ports – air and sea – are another area riddled with illegal payments.
If the state did try to clamp down on uncollected levies it would mean moving against all the major political parties, including the mighty Hizbollah, all of which have a seat at the government high table. Best just make new ones that are easier to collect.
On Sunday thousands of protesters took to Central Beirut to protest against the taxes. As expected, neither Hizbollah nor supporters of the prime minister Saad Hariri were part of the protest. Even moaning about paying too much tax is a sectarian issue.
Which leaves us with Samy Gemayel. Is he the opportunist apple that hasn’t fallen too far from the paternal tree or is he the new conscience of a country desperate for someone to stop the rot of corruption and improve living standards for all? Lebanon’s tragedy is that people ignore the message because they may not like the messenger.
With Blair, the British have a point. Samy Gemayel deserves a chance but he’ll probably never get it.
Michael Karam is a freelance writer who lives between Beirut and Brighton.
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