Michael Karam: New economic era or just a false dawn for Lebanon?

If Saad Hariri ends up heading Lebanon's new government, he needs to make good his promise to create a sustainable economy.

The Beirut bourse has been stirring amid rumours that Michel Aoun, the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement, will next week be nominated as Lebanon’s new president with Saad Hariri, leader of the Future Movement, widely expected to be asked to then form a government.

Mr Hariri is the son of the late former prime minister Rafik Hariri and was himself prime minister from 2009 to 2011, when he was ousted in what was tantamount to a bloodless coup orchestrated by Hizbollah, Mr Aoun’s most powerful ally. With this in mind, Mr Hariri’s support for Mr Aoun might seen strange, but Lebanon is a strange country, and the Saudi-born billionaire has defended his decision by putting the country first, arguing that it is imperative to “kick-start the economy”.

The Lebanese have been pat­iently waiting for a resolution to the 29-month political impasse in the naive hope that the nomination of a new president will restore confidence, spur consumption and encourage investment. I say naive, but there has been precedent. The nomination of Rafik Hariri in 1992 stabilised a Lebanese pound that was hurtling out of control and set in motion the reconstruction process, while in 2008 the nomination of president Michel Suleiman forced the warring March 8 and March 14 blocs to put aside their differences and the country flourished, albeit for only two years. But Lebanon’s brand glowed and Beirut, with its stamina-fuelled nightlife and beautiful people, was the erstwhile darling of the international media.

But the goalposts have irrevocably moved since the so-called Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war, which forced Lebanon to absorb at least 1.5 million refugees (some analysts put the figure at closer to 2 million). Lebanon is not the same country and may never be the same country again and one has to wonder if simply having a functioning state is enough to thaw a deep-frozen economy.

The good times used to rely on foreign money spent in ­hotels, restaurants and shops as well on bricks and mortar. Only two weeks ago the Beirut press ran stories that local property developers were confident of an upswing once a president was in place. But it remains to be seen if the Arab tourists will ever come back to Lebanon in the same numbers. With nearly 2 million extra people, no significant improvement in the infrastructure, a capital with a chronic rubbish crisis and a fear of kidnapping, the lure of other, less problematic, destinations might still make them stay away.

Mr Hariri, if he does end up heading a government, has to demonstrate his claim that he prioritises the creation of a sustainable eco­nomy, a promise that can be traced back to 2005 and the birth of the March 14 movement after his father’s murder. Those of us who backed him then accepted that both his government, and that of Fouad Siniora before him, were never really given a chance to implement a meaningful economic road map.

Now he must take a page from his late father’s book. In the early ‘90s, Hariri Senior announced Horizon 2000, a project that outlined the rejuvenation of Lebanon after the 15-year civil war. It fell short of its deadline, but not by much. It was one of the only long-term initiatives and not surprisingly it was a businessman-turned- politician and not a warlord who created it.

One of Mr Hariri’s first tasks therefore should be the creation of an economic task force to focus on, in no particular order, improving infrastructure, seeking out new sources of energy – solar power can no longer be ignored as an option – more efficient ways of getting rid of waste; and identifying and supporting key sectors with greater support from a banking sector that has become fat and lazy by lending to the state instead of supporting local businesses.

Lebanon’s economic woes could be solved by an average MBA student over a rainy afternoon. But the disconnect between the political class and the needs of the population for a minimum standard of living in a country that, even after everything, still has a lot going for it, needs to be resolved.

The world has moved on since 2011, so if Mr Hariri genuinely wants to improve the economy he must understand that the old formula of making hay while the sun shines is no longer sustainable.

Michael Karam is a freelance writer who lives between Beirut and Brighton.

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