Long term US and German Government bond yields have been declining since mid-May. However, at the end of June a number of Central Bankers surprised markets by releasing hawkish comments, leading to bond yields reversing sharply. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, spoke on June 27 at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) asset purchase programme and interest rate policy were kept unchanged as Draghi commented “ … a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up, and to support headline inflation in the medium term.” However, the ECB President also pointed out that, “the threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play”. Markets interpreted these comments as a sign of potential tapering. If inflation were to pickup, quantitative easing measures would be decreased.
Last Thursday Draghi also spoke at the ECB press conference giving a very balanced speech. The president did not add new details and avoided making comments which would possibly derail markets over the summer.
Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), testified in front of the US House’s Committee on Financial Services on July 13. Yellen reflected a cautious path of monetary policy normalisation and made it clear this would be linked to growth. The chair stated that if the economy evolves as anticipated, the FOMC will begin to implement the Fed’s balance sheet normalisation plan this year. While Yellen also added that reflationary pressures are being slowed by temporary effects, it appeared clear that policy tightening will continue even if inflation remains subdued.
Latest US headline inflation came in softer than expectations. Both headline and core inflation have been declining for the past three months. While it’s key to keep monitoring inflation, Yellen said the Fed will not tie its actions to monetary policy prescriptions and rules in a “mechanical way”. If the forces weighing on inflation indeed prove to be “temporary” and the Fed is right, markets could be taken by surprise.
Central Bankers in developed markets seem to be speaking with a unison tone. The governor of the Bank of England (BOE), Mark Carney, has also recently released more hawkish comments. The Bank of Canada just raised its key lending rate for the first time in seven years.
The combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOE and Bank of Japan are over $14 trillion having more than doubled post the financial crisis. This expansion is now expected to start slowing. Shrinking central banks assets, along with potential rate hikes, will likely translate into higher bond yields globally.
Since Draghi’s speech at the end of June, 10-year German Bund yields moved rapidly from 0.37 per cent to 0.59 per cent on July 13 touching the highest level since January 2016. US 10 Treasury yields moved from 2.21 per cent to 2.39 per cent and are now back to 2.24 per cent, as of July 21). While the moves in German Bunds were significant for such a short time period, the moves in US Treasuries were far from those seen in the 2013 “Taper Tantrum” when Ben Bernanke’s comments caused US yields to rise 100 basis points in a few weeks. However, this year there has still been a fair amount of variability in US 10-year yields which started 2017 at 2.44 per cent, went to highs of 2.63 per cent and then touched lows of 2.13 per cent. As 10-year rates have moved lower since the beginning of the year and two-year rates have moved higher, the US yield curve has flattened.
Monetary policy has a significant role in determining the expected path of short-term interest rates which are in turn an important factor driving long-term rates. If the Fed starts reducing its balance sheet this year and hikes rates in December, we could see US long-term yields moving moderately higher. While the level of US yields is heavily influenced by European and Asian bond markets, as the European Central Bank begins to taper its asset purchases we would expect to see more pressure on the term premia in Europe, which remains in negative territory. As such, we are currently more cautious on European rates, and within a diversified portfolio would favour owning US duration as a defensive anchor against the threat of a risk-off event.
With expectations of higher rates and credit spreads having tightened significantly over the past year, one can imagine limited upside from capital gains in credit investments although these could still form a useful component of a properly diversified strategy.
Investors looking for opportunities will be turning to investments in relative value trades, emerging market debt, corporate and financial hybrids. On the latter, banks should in fact be among the beneficiaries of higher rates as yield curves steepen. On a relative basis, equities appear attractive especially as they will be supported by an extended economic cycle and steady global growth; although on an absolute basis they are far from cheap.
While there are risks to be mindful of, policy shifts and decreasing correlations are creating a multitude of opportunities within different asset classes and sectors.
Ilaria Calabresi is a vice president at JP Morgan Private Bank
BMW%20M4%20Competition
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.0%20twin-turbo%20inline%20six-cylinder%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eight-speed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E503hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20600Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20from%20Dh617%2C600%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
%3Cp%3EEtihad%20Airways%20operates%20seasonal%20flights%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20Nice%20C%C3%B4te%20d'Azur%20Airport.%20Services%20depart%20the%20UAE%20on%20Wednesdays%20and%20Sundays%20with%20outbound%20flights%20stopping%20briefly%20in%20Rome%2C%20return%20flights%20are%20non-stop.%20Fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C315%2C%20flights%20operate%20until%20September%2018%2C%202022.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20Radisson%20Blu%20Hotel%20Nice%20offers%20a%20western%20location%20right%20on%20Promenade%20des%20Anglais%20with%20rooms%20overlooking%20the%20Bay%20of%20Angels.%20Stays%20are%20priced%20from%20%E2%82%AC101%20(%24114)%2C%20including%20taxes.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on Quran memorisation:
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
If%20you%20go
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The five pillars of Islam
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 63 17 63
2 Liverpool 25 17 6 2 64 20 57
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 49 18 50
4 Man Utd 26 13 7 6 44 34 46
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5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 45 34 42
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6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 36 26 42
7 Wolves 24 12 4 8 23 18 40
8 Tottenham 23 12 4 8 31 31 39
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science