Emerging markets ended a volatile quarter with China’s plunging economy, spiking US yields and rising oil prices sparking the worst decline in stocks in a year.
Despite a rebound on Friday, stocks saw a $470 billion wipeout, currencies posted back-to-back quarterly losses and sovereign risk premiums hovered at a three-month high.
It’s now clear that expectations at the start of the year for a rally in Chinese markets and outperformance by emerging markets over developed markets have not panned out.
What is less clear is what the last stretch of 2023 holds, as investors assess whether the worst of bad news in those key themes is over.
China’s economy is stabilising, Brent crude prices may be peaking and a resurgent dollar stalled after reaching a 10-month high.
What’s more, weak US consumer spending data and a slower-than-expected increase in the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation have spurred hopes that US rate hikes may halt.
“The EM rates and EMFX carry trade has been derailed by the relentless move up in US rates,” Citigroup strategists including Dirk Willer wrote in a note to clients.
“With US rates trading as if they still are in a bear market, we are cautious in the short term until we see signs of US weakness.”
MSCI’s stock index rose 0.8 per cent on Friday as Chinese technology stocks came back in favour. That trimmed quarterly losses to 3.7 per cent, its worst performance in a year.
The currency gauge also ticked up on the last trading session of September, with Chile’s peso, Hungary’s forint and Thai baht leading gains. It ended the quarter 0.4 per cent lower, a second straight decline.
Mexico’s peso was supported by a hawkish tone when policymakers held interest rates steady on Thursday, feeding expectations that the country may be the last in the region to lower borrowing costs.
Colombia’s central bank also held interest rates at a quarter-century high on Friday, though economists are expecting a cut next month.
In China, where stocks have erased $1.7 trillion of shareholder wealth since early February, satellite data show an economic rebound is at last taking hold. Recent releases showing an improvement in industrial profits have boosted bets for the start of a new earnings cycle.
US labour market trends will play a key role in the Fed’s calculation of a peak rate. Resilience in employment data in the face of successive rate hikes has been one of the surprises of the year and kept inflation expectations buoyed.
While Fed policymakers left the target range for their benchmark rate unchanged, fresh quarterly projections showed 12 of the 19 officials favoured another hike in 2023.
Moves in US yields and the dollar will track developments in these two themes. Any strength in them could filter through to emerging markets as another sell-off.
But investors will hope the recent signs of exhaustion in the US asset rallies continue, sparking a fourth-quarter rebound.
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Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
The specs
Common to all models unless otherwise stated
Engine: 4-cylinder 2-litre T-GDi
0-100kph: 5.3 seconds (Elantra); 5.5 seconds (Kona); 6.1 seconds (Veloster)
Power: 276hp
Torque: 392Nm
Transmission: 6-Speed Manual/ 8-Speed Dual Clutch FWD
Price: TBC
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Friday’s fixture
6.15pm: Al Wahda v Hatta
6.15pm: Al Dhafra v Ajman
9pm: Al Wasl v Baniyas
9pm: Fujairah v Sharjah
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
THREE
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