Lower food prices and stable rents keep inflation in check



Dubai's annual inflation eased to 0.2 per cent rise on an annual basis last month, underlining the UAE's divergence from higher price pressures elsewhere in the region.

A decline in food prices and no pick-up in housing costs meant inflation slowed from a 0.3 per cent annual rise in October, according to data released by the Dubai Statistics Centre.

"The price difference between the UAE and elsewhere is essentially to do with the housing component," said Said Hirsh, the Middle East economist at Capital Economics.

Weakness in the housing market, a shortage of bank credit and food-price controls have helped to keep inflation at bay in the UAE this year.

Abu Dhabi last week reported that its annual inflation rate eased to 0.6 per cent last month from 0.9 per cent in October.

The UAE's position contrasts with higher inflation elsewhere in the GCC as state-spending splurges feed through to the economy.

Oman's annual inflation edged up to 3.8 per cent in October, in part because of a rise in education costs, data released this week showed.

Saudi Arabia's inflation also remains high, although it softened to 5.2 per cent in October. Higher housing costs and large injections of government spending have driven prices upwards in the kingdom this year.

Sheikh Khalifa, President of the UAE, last month announced that some public-sector workers would get raises of 35 per cent or more starting next month.

However, the impact on inflation was expected to be limited, said Mr Hirsh. "In the UAE, we expect housing deflation to moderate a bit as the stimulus takes effect but we don't expect overall inflation to go beyond 2 per cent next year."

Inflation in the Emirates was likely to be lower than 3 per cent, Sultan Al Suwaidi, the Central Bank Governor, said in June.

In Dubai, food costs, the second-largest consumer expense in the index, dropped 0.8 per cent last month. Housing prices, the largest component, were unchanged for the second month in a row.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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