The decision by the US government to ban the use of laptops and other large electronic items in cabins on flights from 10 Middle East airports and nine carriers is unlikely to have been taken for commercial reasons, says Eurasia Group’s founder, Ian Bremmer.
Given the long-running war of words between the three big Middle East airlines – Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways – and the US legacy carriers American, Delta and United, at least one analyst has suggested that competitive pressures may have been at the root of the ban, especially as a similar move by the UK government did not cover the UAE and Qatar.
Mr Bremmer said that American carriers have “been pressured by the Trump administration to maintain more jobs and are going to want some quid pro quo, but I don’t think that that was the determinative reason behind the ban”.
He said that the Trump administration’s desire to appear tough on the threat of terrorism was a more likely motivator.
“I think that overwhelmingly, this is an administration and a president that is focused on radical Islamic terror. And they want to show that they are taking action.
“They’ve had backlash against a badly written executive order [banning entrants from seven Muslim-majority countries], they put it in again and it was a priority. It was one of the things they did early.
“I think that the laptop ban is absolutely a part and parcel of that, and I think you’re going to see more,” said Mr Bremmer.
“It is clearly going to hit the trade relationship and the security relationship between our countries but, ultimately, this is not being driven by an effort to gain competitive economic advantage. I would be very surprised if that was what drove the policy.”
Mr Bremmer said that the rise in anti-Muslim sentiment “has become a real issue” in the US.
“We haven’t yet seen a significant terrorist attack under [Donald] Trump against the US by a radical Islamic terrorist. When you do, and there will be one either in the US or abroad, I think the likelihood of the US administration to overreact against the Muslim world – and against Muslims in the US – is going to be significant.
“If you’re Saudi, or if you’re Emirati, you’ve viewed the US as not just an ally but also a place to buy property, to send your kids to school. That’s just going to become less attractive. It’s going to be harder to travel to the US, you’re going to be scrutinised more at the border, you are going to experience more discrimination.”
mfahy@thenational.ae
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