IMF loans provide poison in the honey for angry Egyptians


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Poison in the Honey is a rather jaunty protest song you might have heard playing on a car radio down any number of Cairo backstreets during the past few months.

It is satirical ditty thrummed out on an oud and sung with ironic relish by an artist called Yasser El Manawahly.

El Manawahly's subject matter, however, might come as a bit of a surprise to students of the traditional post-revolutionary protest song.

His target is the IMF, with its as yet non-existent US$4.8 billion (Dh17.6bn) loan to Egypt, that has, in El Manawahly's words, poisoned the country's honey with the threat of interest payments and a shackle of debt that will keep the nation on its knees for decades to come.

The fact that the song is so popular is a measure of just how unpopular the IMF has become in Egypt. The people do not want help from an institution they see as a link to the former regime of Hosni Mubarak as it was the IMF that helped shape much of his economic reforms.

Neither do they want to start their new democratic life in hock to a western money lender.

The fact that economic dissatisfaction resonates so prominently in the popular psyche is even more significant than this distrust of the IMF and is a solid indicator of just how bleak prospects have become in Egypt.

The Egyptian economy is a failure by almost every conceivable measure. The fact that such an enormous amount of economic potential has been squandered in the two short years since the uprising that unseated Mr Mubarak is perhaps the current regime's biggest failing.

Government reserves have dropped by more than half from $36bn in 2011 to just $15bn today. The pound is in freefall and GDP growth is lower than 2 per cent. Unemployment is about 13 per cent.

The Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi is in denial of his country's predicament, meanwhile, claiming this week that the economy is stable.

At the same speech in Riyadh he called on Egyptian expats to continue sending remittances back to the old country to help out - hardly the most robust of economic plans. And that is Egypt's biggest problem. There is no real economic plan beyond asking the IMF for a loan and receiving much-needed handouts from the likes of Qatar, which has provided billions of dollars in support.

Because of the complete abrogation of responsibility for economic policy, Egypt now has no choice but to take such handouts from whomever offers them.

Egypt's internal economy, however, is quite robust. Egyptians continue to consume and there is something of a building boom going on thanks to unscrupulous developers willing to grab land and build on it as fast as they can.

But this same instability has driven away almost all semblance of foreign direct investment, which is essential if the economy is ever to break out of its current tailspin.

It has also driven away much of the tourist industry, formerly one of the country's biggest economic contributors.

There was a glimmer of hope this week when Bill Gates and a group of American investors shovelled $1bn into Orascom Construction Industries, once the country's biggest listed company and a prominent builder and fertilizer manufacturer.

They were staking a claim on the future housing, employment and consumption needs of the Egyptian people, and rightly so.

But one element of the deal was very revealing. The newly formed company will no longer be based in Egypt but the Netherlands - and it will be listed on the Amsterdam stock exchange rather than Cairo.

The subtext here is that even the biggest company in the country, with a huge reconstruction job to do that will last decades, wants to be based in a more stable jurisdiction.

This is not a vote of confidence in the Egyptian economy. It calls to mind the Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company quitting Athens last year.

Nobody wants a return to the days of Mr Mubarak, but so far the Morsi regime has done nothing but harm to the Egyptian economy.

Without a swift and decisive implementation of an economic policy that encourages foreign investment and the rule of law to safeguard economic activity, the Egyptian people will not taste the sweetness of honey but the bitterness of poison for many more years to come.

James Doran's weekly column, which returns today, was commended by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales Middle East Excellence in Financial Journalism Awards 2012

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)

Nancy Ajram

(In2Musica)

How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed

Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.

Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.

The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.

One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.

That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.