Sunshine, the Middle East’s other abundant natural resource, could make the region a world leader in solar power by mid-century, but there is currently a lack of political will to achieve even its medium-term goals, the head of renewable energy at the International Energy Agency said yesterday.
"In the longer term, we realise that the Middle East is a very rich solar resource and could provide a huge quantity of the electricity generation mix by 2050, up to 58 per cent for the whole region," said Paolo Frankl, the head of renewable energy at the IEA, the Paris-based energy think tank for developed economies. "But it would require a very strong political will and a clear roadmap. To be very frank, we see very ambitious targets but still we don't see these conditions being in place in any country in the region."
On Monday, new IEA reports laid out how solar could outstrip other sources of electricity generation by 2050, providing 27 per cent of the mix globally, with the Middle East’s potential more than double that.
However, Mr Frankl said the IEA does not expect the region to come close to its medium-term goals for either of the two sources of solar power: the large-scale solar thermal electricity (STE) projects from concentrating solar power, or the more familiar photovoltaic (PV) solar plates, where sunlight is converted directly to electricity.
“On installed PV, which is now 110 megawatts for the region, we estimate the Middle East as a whole will not have installed more than a cumulative 5 gigawatts by 2020,” Mr Frankl said. For STE, he estimates that installed capacity will rise to 1.9GW of capacity by 2020 from 125MW. This compares, for example, to Saudi Arabia’s stated goal to have 24GW of installed solar capacity by 2020.
Meanwhile, China is installing 13GW of PV alone each year and solar has also been growing rapidly in Europe and the United States.
“I have the feeling that people in the Middle East think this transition towards a more sustainable, more diversified energy mix is a good thing, enhancing overall energy security, and for oil-exporting countries enhancing their capability to sell more oil in lucrative international markets,” said Mr Frankl. “But I suspect there are other decision-makers who ultimately think this may hurt the core business, which is oil. The challenge here for decision-makers is how to make sure that the Middle East is a positive participant in this transition and find its place in a new type of world,” Mr Frankl adds.
What is lacking is the will to address thorny issues such as domestic energy subsidies, as well as taking a long-term view on industrial policy.
The IEA executive director, Maria van der Hoeven, noted on Monday that PV has expanded faster than expected because of rapidly falling costs, while STE has been held back because of factors including cheap shale gas. But STE will be the dominant solar technology in future as its technology progresses, which would give the sunny Middle East countries a competitive advantage.
Currently, Abu Dhabi is home to the largest concentrated solar power (CSP) project in the world: Masdar's Shams 1 array, with capacity of 100MW. Shams 1 helped to lift the UAE to third among the world's nations in concentrated solar CSP investment and capacity, said a report by Ren21 in June.
Although Spain and the US are still by far the market leaders in CSP, investment in the technology is growing most rapidly in regions that receive high amounts of daily sunshine.
“China has gone from the largest polluter, with coal, to the world leader in all-clean technologies. They are still the largest polluter, but the transition is clearly going on,” Mr Frankl said. “The Middle East countries – which have the highest per capital CO2 emissions – will have to adapt to this transition or they will find themselves on the wrong side of history. The revolution will happen with or without the Middle East. But solar is a huge opportunity for the region.”
The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) is also developing the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park which is expected to produce 1,000MW by 2030. The first phase of the project, which includes a Dh120 million, 13MW photovoltaic power plant at Seih Al Dahal, 30 kilometres south-east of the city, opened last year and has been connected to the emirate’s power grid.
amcauley@thenational.ae
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