The International Energy Agency on Tuesday predicted higher oil demand next year, but was tentative about overall prospects as it noted Opec members pumped at a record rate last month ahead of their deal to cut output.
The Paris-based energy watchdog reflected widespread opinion that the effectiveness of the Opec deal at the end of November and the subsequent deal among some major non-Opec producers on Saturday, would depend on a strict adherence to terms.
"If Opec promptly and fully sticks to its production target … and non-Opec producers deliver the agreed cuts … then the market is likely to move into deficit in the first half of 2017 by an estimated 600,000 barrels per day," the agency said in its monthly report.
But it added: “This is not a forecast by the IEA, it is an assumption based on the numbers in Opec’s 30 November agreement, subsequently reinforced by the non-Opec producers.”
The UAE was among the first to announce supply cuts to customers, with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company on Tuesday telling Asian customers to expect supply to be between 3 and 5 per cent less in January, according to traders.
Kuwait and Qatar followed suit and Saudi Arabia is expected to do so too. But the IAE noted that Opec’s output in November was at a record 34.2 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 300,000 bpd on the month and 1.4 million bpd over the year.
“Opec’s cut to crude production of 1.2 million bpd almost matches its deliberate production increase of 1.3 million bpd in the 12 months to October [the month on which the Opec cuts are based], while the non-Opec group has seen its crude output fall in the same period by about 900,000 bpd,” the IEA noted.
Ed Bell, a commodities analyst at Emirates NBD in Dubai, said that any country that is party to the cuts will have tried to raise output as much as possible in the months leading up to the deal so they can at least show a decline in output.
“Adnoc, Kuwait and Qatar have warned importers to accept less from January,” he said.
“But these reports are also coming out at the same time that more and more oil is waiting to leave the US on its way to Asia.”
amcauley@thenational.ae
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
T20 World Cup Qualifier
Final: Netherlands beat PNG by seven wickets
Qualified teams
1. Netherlands
2. PNG
3. Ireland
4. Namibia
5. Scotland
6. Oman
T20 World Cup 2020, Australia
Group A: Sri Lanka, PNG, Ireland, Oman
Group B: Bangladesh, Netherlands, Namibia, Scotland
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Coming soon
Torno Subito by Massimo Bottura
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
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